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Regulatory & Standards Intelligence

One desk for commodity-market rules.

Track every rule that moves a market, across environmental, power, natural gas, crude and coal. Then model where supply meets demand: RECs and RPS across North America, and compliance carbon from California-Quebec and RGGI to the EU ETS, UK ETS, Australia and New Zealand.

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California carbon how regulation moved the price
Cap-and-Trade / Invest · $/t CO₂e
$0$11$22$34$452026202420222020201820162014$27.94now12345
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
1Jul 2017 AB 398 extends program to 20302Jan 2021 Hard price ceiling takes effect3Feb 2024 Market peak ~$42, then slides on amendment uncertainty4Sep 2025 AB 1207 / SB 840 extend to 20455Sep 2026 2026 Cap-and-Invest amendments take effect
Price: CARB/MELCCFP joint auction settlement (public) (verified)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: auctions quarterly (Feb/May/Aug/Nov); secondary daily · as of 2026-07-05
Latest mark
$27.94
/t CO₂e
Range
$10.09 → $41.76
since shown
Driver
8 amendments
tracked
$0$11$22$34$452026202420222020201820162014$27.94now1234
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
1Jan 2014 SPEDE links with California (joint WCI market)2Jan 2021 Joint-market hard price ceiling32023 Aligns budgets with tighter 2030 target4Sep 2025 CA reauthorization to 2045 anchors market
Price: CARB/MELCCFP joint auction settlement (public) (verified)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: auctions quarterly; secondary daily · as of 2026-07-05
Latest mark
$27.94
/t CO₂e
Range
$10.09 → $41.76
since shown
Driver
Linked-market
tracked
€0€28€55€82€1102027202620252024202320222021€81.22now1234
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
12020 COVID dip, then EU Green Deal ramp2Jul 2021 Fit for 55 sets a steeper cap3Feb 2023 Gas-crisis peak near €904Jan 2026 CBAM definitive phase + steeper cap
Price: EEX primary auction (public), monthly avg (verified)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: daily · as of 2026-08-01
Latest mark
€81.22
/t CO₂e
Range
€19.5 → €91.98
since shown
Driver
MSR, Fit-for-55, CBAM
tracked
$0$10$20$30$40202620242022202020182016201420122010$35now12345
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
1Jan 2014 2014 cap cut ~45%2Aug 2021 Third Program Review tightens cap32024 Cost Containment Reserve triggered42026 Virginia and New Jersey re-entry raises demand5Jan 2027 RGGI Third Program Review cap takes effect (tighter 2027-2037 trajectory)
Price: RGGI Inc. auction clearing price (public) (verified)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: auctions quarterly; secondary daily · as of 2026-08-01
Latest mark
$35
/t CO₂e
Range
$1.86 → $35
since shown
Driver
Program reviews
tracked
$0$18$35$52$702023202420252026$65.26now1234
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
1Feb 2023 Program launches near $48 (tight standalone market)2Mar 2024 I-2117 repeal effort pressures price3Nov 2024 I-2117 defeated at the ballot; recovers42025-26 SB 6058 linkage with CA-Quebec caps the premium
Price: WA Dept of Ecology auction settlement (public) (verified)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: auctions quarterly; secondary daily · as of 2026-07-05
Latest mark
$65.26
/t CO₂e
Range
$29 → $65
since shown
Driver
Ballot + linkage
tracked
$0$130$260$390$52020262024202220202018201620142012$400now123
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
12011 Border closed to out-of-state solar tightens supply22016 RPS Expansion Act lifts solar carve-out; supply tightens3Dec 2018 CleanEnergy DC Act: 10% solar by 2041
Price: PJM-GATS registry + broker marks (Flett, Xpansiv) (indicative)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: monthly (GATS mint) + broker updates · as of 2026-07-05
Latest mark
$400
/MWh
Range
$60 → $480
since shown
Driver
Highest US SREC
tracked
$0$175$350$525$700202620242022202020182016201420122010$208now1234
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
12011-12 Solar boom oversupplies market; price collapses2Jul 2012 Solar Act of 2012 accelerates RPS targets; recovers3May 2018 Clean Energy Act: 50% RPS, program set to close4Apr 2020 Legacy SREC program closes; SuSI succeeds it
Price: PJM-GATS + NJ spot (NJSREC, Flett, Xpansiv) (indicative)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: monthly + broker updates · as of 2026-07-05
Latest mark
$208
/MWh
Range
$75 → $650
since shown
Driver
SACP-capped
tracked
$0$150$300$450$60020262024202220202018201620142012$315now1234
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
12011 Solar carve-out demand outpaces supply22013 Oversupply pushes price toward the floor32014 SREC-II adds an auction floor; price stabilizes42018 Closed to new; SMART tariff succeeds it
Price: NEPOOL-GIS + DOER clearing + broker marks (indicative)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: monthly + auction results · as of 2026-07-05
Latest mark
$315
/MWh
Range
$200 → $550
since shown
Driver
Auction-floor design
tracked
$0$70$140$210$28020262024202220202018201620142012$55now123
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
12013 Oversupply drives multi-year decline22019 Clean Energy Jobs Act: RPS 50% by 2030; recovers3May 2024 Brighter Tomorrow Act: Certified SRECs worth 1.5x
Price: PJM-GATS + broker marks (indicative)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: monthly + broker updates · as of 2026-07-05
Latest mark
$55
/MWh
Range
$14 → $250
since shown
Driver
Certified-SREC uplift
tracked
$0$80$160$240$320202620242022202020182016201420122010$40now12
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
12011 Out-of-state imports flood the market; price crashes2Oct 2017 Act 40 closes the border to out-of-state SRECs; recovers
Price: PJM-GATS + broker marks (indicative)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: monthly + broker updates · as of 2026-07-05
Latest mark
$40
/MWh
Range
$4 → $300
since shown
Driver
In-state-only since 2017
tracked
$0$80$160$240$32020262024202220202018201620142012$4now12
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
12014 SB 310 freezes RPS and opens to out-of-state; crashes22019 HB 6 ends the solar carve-out; market collapses
Price: PJM-GATS + broker marks (indicative)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: monthly + broker updates · as of 2026-07-05
Latest mark
$4
/MWh
Range
$4 → $300
since shown
Driver
Carve-out repealed
tracked
$0.0$2.5$5.0$7.5$10.02026202420222020201820162014201220102008$2.63now1234
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
12020 COVID demand collapse; sub-$2 gas2Feb 2022 Russia invades Ukraine; LNG pull spikes prices3Jan 2024 DOE pauses new LNG export approvals42025 Export pause lifted; LNG capacity ramps
Price: EIA NG.RNGWHHD.D (daily spot, monthly avg) (verified)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: daily · as of 2026-08-01
Latest mark
$2.63
/MMBtu
Range
$1.6 → $9
since shown
Driver
LNG-export policy
tracked
€0€90€180€270€36020262025202420232022202120202019€35now1234
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
12021 Supply crunch begins as storage runs low22022 Russia cuts gas; Nord Stream halt32022 REPowerEU + 90% storage-fill mandate42023 Storage full; prices normalize
Price: ICE/EEX Dutch TTF near-month (indicative)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: daily · as of 2026-07-05
Latest mark
€35
/MWh
Range
€10 → €340
since shown
Driver
REPowerEU + storage rule
tracked
$0$18$35$52$7020262025202420232022202120202019$12now123
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
1Winter 2021 Asian winter + supply squeeze spike22022 Europe outbids Asia for cargoes32023 Normalization as EU demand eases
Price: Platts JKM assessment (indicative)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: daily · as of 2026-07-05
Latest mark
$12
/MMBtu
Range
$4 → $56
since shown
Driver
LNG diversion tracked
tracked
$0$35$70$105$1402026202420222020201820162014201220102008$91.82now1234
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
1Apr 2020 COVID demand collapse; OPEC+ price war22022 Russia invades Ukraine; EU embargo + G7 price cap32023 OPEC+ supply cuts defend price42025 OPEC+ unwinds cuts; sanctions in flux
Price: EIA PET.RBRTE.D (daily spot, monthly avg) (verified)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: daily · as of 2026-08-01
Latest mark
$91.82
/bbl
Range
$20 → $124
since shown
Driver
OPEC+ + sanctions
tracked
$0$34$68$101$1352026202420222020201820162014201220102008$84.25now1234
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
1Apr 2020 WTI settles negative as storage fills (Cushing)22022 SPR release: 180M bbl drawdown32023-24 SPR refill begins; export policy steady42025 OPEC+ output policy shifts
Price: EIA PET.RWTC.D (daily spot, monthly avg) (verified)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: daily · as of 2026-08-01
Latest mark
$84.25
/bbl
Range
-$37 → $120
since shown
Driver
SPR + export policy
tracked
$0$25$50$75$10020262024202220202018$55now1234
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
1Dec 2018 Alberta mandates curtailment as the WTI-WCS diff blows out22020 COVID crash; curtailment eased3Oct 2021 Line 3 replacement adds egress; diff narrows4May 2024 Trans Mountain expansion starts; diff tightens
Price: WCS Hardisty (Net Energy/Argus) + AER (indicative)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: daily · as of 2026-07-05
Latest mark
$55
/bbl
Range
$18 → $80
since shown
Driver
Egress + curtailment
tracked
$0$120$240$360$4802026202520242023202220212020$108now123
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
12021 China power crisis and import limits22022 Russia/Ukraine; record near $44032023 Normalizes as gas prices fall
Price: ICE / globalCOAL Newcastle 6000 (indicative)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: daily · as of 2026-07-05
Latest mark
$108
/t
Range
$50 → $440
since shown
Driver
Import-policy driven
tracked
$0$105$210$315$42020262025202420232022202120202019$104now123
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
12021 Gas-to-coal switching lifts demand2Aug 2022 EU bans Russian coal; price spikes32023 Normalizes with lower gas
Price: ICE / Argus API2 ARA (indicative)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: daily · as of 2026-07-05
Latest mark
$104
/t
Range
$50 → $400
since shown
Driver
EU import ban tracked
tracked
$0$55$110$165$220202620242022202020182016$67now123
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
12015-16 MATS + retirements shrink US coal demand22022 Gas price spike lifts coal burn32024 EPA power-plant rule spurs more retirements
Price: EIA weekly coal + S&P Global CAPP (indicative)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: weekly · as of 2026-07-05
Latest mark
$67
/t
Range
$45 → $200
since shown
Driver
Retirement-driven demand
tracked
$0$90$180$270$360202720262025202420232022202120202019$333now1234
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
1Dec 2022 Winter Storm Elliott spurs reliability reforms2Jul 2024 ELCC rule + data-center demand + retirements: 9x spike32025 PA-governor deal caps the next two auctions4Dec 2025 Clears the cap again at $333
Price: PJM Base Residual Auction (RPM) results (indicative)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: per auction (~annual) · as of 2026-07-05
Latest mark
$333
/MW-day
Range
$29 → $333
since shown
Driver
RPM design + load growth
tracked
$0$70$140$210$28020262025202420232022202120202019$40now123
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
1Feb 2021 Winter Storm Uri; prices hit the $9,000 cap for days22022 PUCT lowers the offer cap to $5,00032023 Performance Credit Mechanism adopted
Price: ERCOT settlement (DA LMP) + EIA wholesale (indicative)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: daily · as of 2026-07-05
Latest mark
$40
/MWh
Range
$25 → $9,000 peak
since shown
Driver
Cap + PCM reform
tracked
$0$50$100$150$20020262025202420232022202120202019$42now123
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
1Aug 2020 August 2020 rolling blackouts2Sep 2022 September heat wave; grid emergency32024 Battery storage flattens evening peaks
Price: CAISO OASIS (DA LMP) + EIA wholesale (indicative)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: daily · as of 2026-07-05
Latest mark
$42
/MWh
Range
$30 → $180
since shown
Driver
Storage mandate tracked
tracked
$0$38$75$112$15020262025202420232022202120202019$43now123
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
12022 Gas-crisis winter; pipeline constraints22023 Winter reliability program3Dec 2026 Capacity Auction Reforms - seasonal/accreditation (CAR-SA) filing expected
Price: ISO-NE (DA LMP) + EIA wholesale (indicative)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: daily · as of 2026-07-05
Latest mark
$43
/MWh
Range
$24 → $130
since shown
Driver
Gas-constraint driven
tracked
$0$30$60$90$12020262025202420232022202120202019$37now12
Near-month market priceRule that moved the priceUpcoming rule (engine-tracked)
12022 2022 capacity auction shortfall; zonal prices hit CONE22023 Seasonal capacity accreditation reform
Price: MISO (DA LMP) + EIA wholesale (indicative)Rules: Knighted regulatory engineupdates: daily · as of 2026-07-05
Latest mark
$37
/MWh
Range
$22 → $85
since shown
Driver
Seasonal accreditation
tracked
Built on primary sources
eCFRFederal Registerregulations.govCARBECCCEIARGGIWA EcologyEEXFERCICENodalVerraGold StandardNCSLBerkeley Lab

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Marks and the rules behind them

Current marks, forward curves, and the regulatory changes that move them, across REC, carbon, and low-carbon fuel markets, before they are priced in.

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Detected changes to the rules that govern these markets — program updates, thresholds, and deadlines, tracked against the primary record as they publish.

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Primary-source regulatory filings, versioned and dated, so you can trace every figure back to the rule it came from. Subscriber access.

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