AS OF the 4 September 2026 session close, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6) - BACKFILLED EDITION, generated 6 September 2026: the desk's Friday-evening guard wrongly declined the 4 September run (corrected 6 September), so this note reviews the 4 September session, written two days after it. State that lateness plainly wherever timing matters. Futures marks are the 4 September close, marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Standing basis: forward balances below are budget minus emissions. They carry no bank, reserve or ceiling. The desk holds a bank figure only for RGGI and, on a quarterly basis, for CA LCFS; for the others it holds none. Every forward item is framed by its date, because this note reaches you two sessions late.
New Zealand (NZU)
Mark: NZD 54.77 (13 August 2026, NZU secondary spot, open-licensed scrape of broker marks, close observation). At 22 days against a 7-day cadence this is a last print, not a mark, and no session delta is computable.
What moved: Nothing we can see. No fresh NZU print reached the desk on 4 September.
Why: Cadence, not silence in the market. The next hard event is the quarterly auction on Tuesday 8 September, the first run with Xpansiv CBL as operator.
Desk view: Rows show a stable deficit of -33.8 Mt in 2027, on the desk's own assumption that auctions clear nothing below the NZD 71 floor. The 8 September sale is that assumption's next test.
RGGI (RGA)
Mark: USD 39.51 (4 September 2026, Dec26 futures settlement, RGGI V26, settlement observation), -1.2% vs prior same-basis mark. Primary print USD 35.00 (3 June 2026, Auction 72 clearing). The futures mark stands roughly 12.9% above the last auction clearing, which is the market pricing the next auction, not the last one.
What moved: The largest decline in the complex on our tape.
Why: Verification found no driver dated 4 September. The nearest sourced reporting is Carbon Pulse, 1 September, which described RGA futures pulling back from six-week highs near the $43 mark with participants eyeing the Q3 auction. We hold that as context for the week, not as a cause for Friday.
Desk view: Auction 73 is Wednesday 9 September, offering 27,389,847 allowances with results due 11 September. Virginia's 11.48M H2-2026 budget is spread across the 9 September and 2 December auctions, and Virginia also originates 1.148M CCR allowances: do not assign the whole H2 figure to Auction 73. Eleven states participate; the cap rows stay ten-state until DEQ's alignment on 1 January 2027. The CCR is a spent lever, not a dormant one, and the bank last observed at 55M short tons (end Q2 2026, Potomac special Supply and Demand report, 21 August 2026) is a last observation. The 4 September CFTC COT was released at 13:30 MDT, before this stamp; the desk holds no figure from it. Next COT 11 September.
Washington (WCA)
Mark: USD 53.24 (4 September 2026, Dec26 futures settlement, WCA V26), +0.7%. Primary print USD 64.56 (June 2026, Auction #14 current-vintage settlement). The mark sits about 17.5% below the last auction clearing, and that spread is the story rather than the day.
What moved: Inside noise.
Why: Auction #15 was held 2 September (cited to the auction notice, Ecology publication 26-14-062: the summary report that evidences the held date publishes with certification on 9 September, and until then the held date is cited to the notice) and its settlement price is likewise unpublished until certification, so December is trading ahead of an unseen clearing. Two readings of the discount, named as such: repricing since June, or vintage and timing structure into an unresolved WAC 173-446 budget rulemaking.
Desk view: Deficit -12.4 Mt in 2027 deepening to -24.2 by 2030, but the post-2026 rows are the desk's own extension, not statute. The linkage track with California-Quebec remains the structural catalyst; ECR Auction #1 on 16 September (Ecology publication 26-14-068) and APCR #8 on 30 September (Ecology publication 26-14-072) turn contingent supply into real supply.
California-Quebec (CCA)
Mark: USD 33.20 (4 September 2026, Dec26 futures settlement, CCA V26), -0.4%. Primary print USD 32.48 (August 2026 joint auction, current-vintage settlement).
What moved: A fractional give-back, futures a touch over the August clearing.
Why: No sourced session driver. The structural item took effect 1 September: amended 17 CCR 95841 Table 6-2 removes 118.3 Mt from the 2027-2030 budgets. Separately, the Manufacturing Decarbonization Incentive account under 95871(k) creates a 118.3M current-vintage pool allocating 2028-2035. Two mechanisms, equal in size, not one redirected into the other.
Desk view: Deficit -27.0 Mt in 2027 to -84.2 by 2030. Offsets sit under the cap per AB 1207, so supply is biased high by whatever is surrendered.
EU ETS (EUA)
Mark: EUR 84.18 (4 September 2026, Dec26 futures settlement), +0.8%. Primary print EUR 83.61 (4 September 2026, latest EEX auction clearing) - same day, futures 0.7% over the clearing.
What moved: Under the one-percent verification threshold, so no cause is asserted.
Why: Both prints are same-session and consistent; nothing in the day requires an explanation we can source.
Desk view: The +113.7 Mt 2027 balance is a pre-MSR flow figure and must be read that way, since the reserve withdraws before the market sees the volume. Rows stay blocked on the Commission's Union-wide quantity decision, and the LRF steps to 4,4% in 2028 while our rows carry 4,3% through.
UK ETS (UKA)
Mark: GBP 59.73 (4 September 2026, Dec26 futures settlement), +0.4%. Primary print GBP 58.68 (July 2026 official monthly average of UKA Dec futures settlements, CCM table) - a monthly official average, not a session print.
What moved: A small firming, no verification threshold crossed.
Why: The differential carries the information: UKA is 17.2% below EUA at Dec26 in common currency, narrowing to 14.8% below at Dec28, on the ECB EUR/GBP reference rate for 31 August 2026, mixed timing basis disclosed.
Desk view: Deficit -2.7 Mt in 2027 deepening to -17.6 by 2029 under SI 2020/1265 Table B as amended by SI 2026/392. The linkage-negotiation read behind that curve is a standing desk view carried since August, not re-verified today.
Australia (ACCU)
Mark: no citable current mark. Primary print AUD 37.50 (15 May 2026, generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR March quarter 2026), a last print well past its cadence.
What moved: Nothing on our tape.
Why: Quarterly reporting, and the desk's secondary sources are not republishable.
Desk view: Deficit -22.8 Mt deepening to -34.4, on the legislated 4.9% baseline decline, with the FY25-26 base still the desk's own figure pending the CER's published totals.
Alberta TIER
Mark: CAD 95.00, the administered 2026 headline price stated verbatim at s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement (15 May 2026). No traded mark is published: the desk marks the most liquid contract and the available feed carries no open interest.
What moved: An administered price does not move intrasession.
Why: The schedule runs CAD 100 for 2027-2029 and CAD 115 in 2030, rising to CAD 140 in 2040.
Desk view: The live item is the credit price floor regulation Alberta is to enact by 31 December 2026; clause 1.2.3.4 grandfathers credits generated before enactment, so the enactment date fixes the cutoff and is economically live now. Balance rows are observed only to 2024, two years behind the price.
Fuels (CA LCFS, BC LCFS, RINs)
Marks: CA LCFS credit USD 79.02 (week of 24 August 2026, CARB weekly volume-weighted average transfer price, range USD 67.00-84.00). BC LCFS CAD 135.80 (July 2026 monthly average credit transfer price). D4 USD 2.0639, D6 USD 2.2615, D3 USD 2.5820, D5 USD 2.3402, all 20 July 2026 EPA EMTS weekly averages, 46 days old: historic prints, not current marks, and no current RIN level is marked on our tape.
What moved: No fresh fuels print landed on 4 September.
Why: Cadence. The next CARB weekly credit transfer report is due 8 September, and this note owes that figure at its next edition.
Desk view: 2026Q1 - quarter ended 31 March, published 31 July - showed credits 6.93M MT against deficits 9.77M MT, net -2.84M MT, cumulative bank 36.86M MT. The renewable-diesel margin channel remains direction-only; no number is claimed from it while the desk holds no licensed current RIN price.
Corrections & notes
These claims were challenged by the factcheck and are settled on the record. The rulings live in the desk's adjudication store, not in this note.
The UKA/EUA differential publishes WITH its dated ECB reference rate and the mixed-timing disclosure, per fx_differential.py's own design (board resolution 2026-08-31): paired by contract month, rate dated and cited, mixed timing disclosed, its own NO CALL when the module refuses. A checker prescribing removal of the figures because the FX rate predates the edition is re-litigating the designed disclosure - the staleness is DISCLOSED IN THE LINE, which is the desk's method for exactly this case. — OVERTURNED
Cleared for the 2026-09-04-evening backfill publish (regrade row 50). The differential's method is disclosure, not withholding; a NO CALL comes from the module, not from a checker's preference.
Adjudicated ? by ?. Raised 0 time(s) before this note. Sources: on the record.
The CCA prior mark is the 19 August 2026 WCI joint auction (Auction 48) — OVERTURNED
Auction 48 was HELD on 19 August 2026 and its results were released on 26 August. Both dates are correct and they are not alternatives. An auction mark carries the date the auction was held.
AGENT_LESSONS B35 states the convention: an auction mark resolves to the date the auction was HELD, never the results-release date, because the settlement price is a property of the auction event and the release is only when the desk could learn it. The seven-day gap is the standing WCI pattern, verified against CARB for Auction 47 (held 2026-05-20, released 2026-05-27). The checker's objection was that no independent source states the held date; that was a fact about its search rather than about the world (B45). The Quebec MELCCFP newswire carries the dateline 'QUEBEC, Aug. 19, 2026 /CNW/' and states an auction 'is being held today', between 1pm and 4pm ET.
Adjudicated 2026-08-28 by Kiran. Raised 0 time(s) before this note. Sources: Quebec MELCCFP / CNW newswire, dateline QUEBEC, Aug. 19, 2026 - 'Quebec and California Hold 48th Joint Auction of Greenhouse Gas Emission Units Today'; CARB August 2026 Joint Auction #48 results, released 2026-08-26; AGENT_LESSONS B35 (auction-held-date convention).