Home · Analysis
Market reads on carbon, RECs, and low-carbon fuels — where policy, supply, and price actually meet. Sourced parameters, trader judgment.
AS OF 14 September 2026, 18:05, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the 2026-09-11 close (prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26
AS OF 11 September 2026, 18:05, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the 2026-09-10 close (prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26
AS OF 8 September 2026, 18:05, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are today's close, marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26.
AS OF the 4 September 2026 session close, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6) - BACKFILLED EDITION, generated 6 September 2026: the desk's Friday-evening guard wrongly declined the 4 September run (corrected 6 September)
AS OF 4 September 2026, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are today's close, marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26.
AS OF 3 September 2026, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are today's close. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
AS OF 2 September 2026, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks do NOT share one settlement date - 2026-09-01 for EU ETS (EUA)/UK ETS (UKA), 2026-09-02 for California-Quebec (CCA)/RGGI (RGA)
CARB's amended Table 6-2 took effect 1 September, removing 118.3 Mt from the 2027-2030 California budgets; the WCI joint forward balance is short in every year to 2030. Washington's Auction #15 is held today.
Correction (rides this note): our RGGI demand rows re-anchor from a flagged ~60M short-ton assumption, carried since 19 August with the verification pull listed as owed
California–Quebec (CCA). Mark: 33.14 (2026-08-31, front-month futures settlement (Sep26), CCA V26, settlement observation), +1.0% vs prior same-basis mark; primary print 32.48 (August 2026 joint auction
What moved: today's clearing is the only citable EUA level on our tape. The tape carries no same-basis prior print, so we publish no percentage change and no direction word.
Three sessions since our last note. Marks and gap deltas below; where our tape carries no gap observation, we say so rather than imply a flat market.
Our last note published 26 August; where the tape cannot support a gap comparison below, we say so rather than imply a flat market.
What moved: Auction 48 was held Wednesday 19 August; results are released today, per the published 2026 joint-auction calendar
What moved: Nothing overnight in the auction tape; the live item is CARB's amendment package,
What moved: The mirror gained 0.6 percent, the largest verified move on tonight's tape and still inside the one percent threshold that would compel a sourced cause.
What moved: Little. Forty-four hundredths of a percent against the verified Aug 18 same-family print is sub-threshold noise, not a story, and no fresh primary print has reached the desk since Aug 11.
California–Québec (CCA). Mark: 28.81, May 2026 joint auction, current-vintage settlement price (desk tape).
RGGI (RGA). Mark: 35.00, 2026-06-03, Auction 72 clearing price (primary print).
What moved: Effectively nothing that clears the threshold - the mirror rose 0.61% on the same basis, sub-one-percent.