Forward view

Auction flow & caps, 2026–2030.

Monthly bars are the supply that actually reaches the market - settled auctions in solid brass, stated-method projections in muted gold, quarterly markets showing their true cadence. Annual view carries the legislated caps against demand scenarios. No price forecasts; enacted policy anchors only.

MonthlyAnnual

UK ETSlegislated

2026-01: 4.220262026-02: 4.22026-03: 4.22026-04: 4.22026-05: 6.22026-06: 4.22026-07: 4.22026-08: 4.22026-09: 4.22026-10: 6.22026-11: 4.22026-12: 2.12027-01: 3.820272027-02: 3.82027-03: 3.82027-04: 3.82027-05: 5.62027-06: 3.82027-07: 3.82027-08: 3.82027-09: 3.82027-10: 5.62027-11: 3.82027-12: 1.92028-01: 2.920282028-02: 2.92028-03: 2.92028-04: 2.92028-05: 4.32028-06: 2.92028-07: 2.92028-08: 2.92028-09: 2.92028-10: 4.32028-11: 2.92028-12: 1.42029-01: 2.820292029-02: 2.82029-03: 2.82029-04: 2.82029-05: 4.12029-06: 2.82029-07: 2.82029-08: 2.82029-09: 2.82029-10: 4.12029-11: 2.82029-12: 1.42030-01: 2.720302030-02: 2.72030-03: 2.72030-04: 2.72030-05: 4.02030-06: 2.72030-07: 2.72030-08: 2.72030-09: 2.72030-10: 4.02030-11: 2.72030-12: 1.36.2

2026 total ~52M (ICAP) on the 2024 auction-calendar shape (25 auctions: double May/Oct, half Dec); 2027+ scaled to the legislated cap path.

RGGIlegislated

20262026-03: 17.92026-06: 17.92026-09: 17.92026-12: 17.920272027-03: 15.92027-06: 15.92027-09: 15.92027-12: 15.920282028-03: 15.42028-06: 15.42028-09: 15.42028-12: 15.420292029-03: 14.92029-06: 14.92029-09: 14.92029-12: 14.920302030-03: 14.32030-06: 14.32030-09: 14.32030-12: 14.317.9

Quarterly auctions Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec; slot = annual adjusted cap x 91.4% (2025 actual auction share) / 4.

California-Quebec WCIlegislated

20262026-02: 49.02026-05: 49.02026-08: 49.02026-11: 49.020272027-02: 46.62027-05: 46.62027-08: 46.62027-11: 46.620282028-02: 44.22028-05: 44.22028-08: 44.22028-11: 44.220292029-02: 41.92029-05: 41.92029-08: 41.92029-11: 41.920302030-02: 39.42030-05: 39.42030-08: 39.42030-11: 39.449

Joint quarterly auctions Feb/May/Aug/Nov; slot = combined caps x 64.6% (2025 Budget-annuel current-vintage offering ratio) / 4.

Australia Safeguardlegislated

Baselines -4.9%/yr from 129.0 (FY23-24).

20262027202820292030
Supply116.7111105.5100.395.4
Demand (trend)132.7128.9125.2121.7118.2
Balance-16-17.9-19.7-21.4-22.8

trend -2.9%/yr (recent CAGR, capped); base 2025 = 136.6. Flat and accelerated scenarios in the JSON.

EU ETSindicative

2026-01: 34.520262026-02: 40.02026-03: 45.42026-04: 40.42026-05: 33.52026-06: 50.02026-07: 39.82026-08: 5.92026-09: 51.92026-10: 51.62026-11: 45.92026-12: 26.02027-01: 39.120272027-02: 41.82027-03: 44.62027-04: 42.22027-05: 35.02027-06: 41.82027-07: 47.32027-08: 43.22027-09: 48.02027-10: 47.72027-11: 42.52027-12: 24.02028-01: 35.020282028-02: 37.52028-03: 39.92028-04: 37.82028-05: 31.32028-06: 37.52028-07: 42.42028-08: 38.72028-09: 43.02028-10: 42.82028-11: 38.12028-12: 21.52029-01: 30.920292029-02: 33.12029-03: 35.32029-04: 33.42029-05: 27.72029-06: 33.12029-07: 37.52029-08: 34.22029-09: 38.02029-10: 37.82029-11: 33.62029-12: 19.02030-01: 26.920302030-02: 28.82030-03: 30.72030-04: 29.02030-05: 24.12030-06: 28.82030-07: 32.52030-08: 29.72030-09: 33.02030-10: 32.82030-11: 29.22030-12: 16.551.9

2026 Jan-Aug settled (EEX; Aug partial); Sep-Dec = 2025 months x cap ratio, flagged: RRF top-ups end 31-Aug-2026, so H2 prints may come lower. 2027+ = cap x 45.35% (2025 auctioned share) on the 2025 monthly pattern.

Washington CCAindicative

20262026-03: 4.22026-06: 4.22026-09: 4.22026-12: 4.220272027-03: 3.82027-06: 3.82027-09: 3.82027-12: 3.820282028-03: 3.42028-06: 3.42028-09: 3.42028-12: 3.420292029-03: 3.02029-06: 3.02029-09: 3.02029-12: 3.020302030-03: 2.62030-06: 2.62030-09: 2.62030-12: 2.64.2

Quarterly auctions Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec; slot = budget x 34.5% (2025 current-allowance offering ratio) / 4.

New Zealand ETSindicative

202620272028202920301

Quarterly auction slots (Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec); volumes per annual settings, clearing only above the NZD 68 floor - zero cleared in 2025. Industrial allocation issues annually outside auctions.

Policy price anchors (enacted):
NZ ETS auction floor NZD 68 (four failed 2025 auctions).
Australia cost-containment ACCUs fixed AUD 82.68 for FY2025-26, escalating.
Alberta TIER fund price CAD 95, frozen indefinitely (May 2025); review due 31-Dec-2026.
No monthly series, and why:
au-safeguard — annual baselines; no monthly issuance primary in hand
ab-tier — instrument submissions are annual true-up events
bc-lcfs — credit generation is continuous; monthly transfer data lives on the market panel
cfr — awaiting ECCC retirement publication (watched)

Generated 2026-08-06 · JSON · Back to the model