Forward view

Auction flow & caps, 2026–2030.

Monthly bars are the supply that actually reaches the market - settled auctions in solid brass, stated-method projections in muted gold, quarterly markets showing their true cadence. Annual view carries the legislated caps against demand scenarios. No price forecasts; enacted policy anchors only.

Monthly Annual

UK ETSlegislated

Consolidated Order Art 22 Table B (SI 2024/1366; SI 2026/392).

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Supply	80.1	72.3	55.6	53	51.3
Demand (trend)	80.4	75.5	71	66.8	62.7
Balance	-0.3	-3.2	-15.4	-13.8	-11.4

trend -6.0%/yr (recent CAGR, capped); base 2025 = 85.5. Flat and accelerated scenarios in the JSON.

RGGIlegislated

2026 ten-state (Monitor); 2027 Model Rule then -2.386M/yr. Short tons.

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Supply	78.5	69.8	67.4	65	62.6
Demand (trend)	77.1	72.5	68.1	64	60.2
Balance	+1.4	-2.7	-0.7	+1	+2.4

trend -6.0%/yr (recent CAGR, capped); base 2025 = 82.0. Flat and accelerated scenarios in the JSON.

California-Quebec WCIlegislated

CA SS95841 + QC Decret 1126-2017.

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Supply	303.1	288.4	273.9	259.3	244.1
Demand (trend)	300.7	291.4	282.4	273.6	265.2
Balance	+2.4	-3	-8.5	-14.3	-21.1

trend -3.1%/yr (recent CAGR, capped); base 2025 = 310.3. Flat and accelerated scenarios in the JSON.

Australia Safeguardlegislated

Baselines -4.9%/yr from 129.0 (FY23-24).

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Supply	116.7	111	105.5	100.3	95.4
Demand (trend)	132.7	128.9	125.2	121.7	118.2
Balance	-16	-17.9	-19.7	-21.4	-22.8

trend -2.9%/yr (recent CAGR, capped); base 2025 = 136.6. Flat and accelerated scenarios in the JSON.

EU ETSindicative

2026 official; 2027-2030 extend the -114.0M/yr step pending official caps.

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Supply	1210.3	1096.3	982.3	868.3	754.3
Demand (trend)	943.5	886.9	833.7	783.6	736.6
Balance	+266.8	+209.4	+148.6	+84.7	+17.7

trend -6.0%/yr (recent CAGR, capped); base 2025 = 1003.7. Flat and accelerated scenarios in the JSON.

Washington CCAindicative

2026 statutory; onward pending Ecology baseline rule due 1-Oct-2026.

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Supply	49	44.2	39.4	34.6	29.8
Demand (trend)	57	55.3	53.7	52	50.5
Balance	-8	-11.1	-14.3	-17.4	-20.7

trend -3.0%/yr (recent CAGR, capped); base 2025 = 58.8. Flat and accelerated scenarios in the JSON.

New Zealand ETSindicative

Industrial allocation only; auctions add supply only above the NZD 68 floor.

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Supply	4.85	4.8	4.75	4.7	4.65
Demand (trend)	38.4	37.3	36.3	35.3	34.3
Balance	-33.5	-32.5	-31.5	-30.6	-29.6

trend -2.8%/yr (recent CAGR, capped); base 2025 = 39.5. Flat and accelerated scenarios in the JSON.

Policy price anchors (enacted):
NZ ETS auction floor NZD 68 (four failed 2025 auctions).
Australia cost-containment ACCUs fixed AUD 82.68 for FY2025-26, escalating.
Alberta TIER fund price CAD 95, frozen indefinitely (May 2025); review due 31-Dec-2026.

No monthly series, and why:
au-safeguard — annual baselines; no monthly issuance primary in hand
ab-tier — instrument submissions are annual true-up events
bc-lcfs — credit generation is continuous; monthly transfer data lives on the market panel
cfr — awaiting ECCC retirement publication (watched)

Generated 2026-08-06 · JSON · Back to the model