Correction issued 2026-09-11 EPA at OMB: a date we published does not verify on OIRA's docket: two notes stated a supplemental power-sector endangerment proposal entered OMB review on 24 August; OIRA's public docket shows no endangerment-titled review pending, and the second arrival is a different instrument received 18 August. Read the full correction EUA rows: the note misdescribed its own step: the 4 September evening note said the desk's EUA rows 'carry 4,3% through'; the rows step - the annual decrement is 86.0 flat for 2028-2030, the 4.4-percent era - and the note also carried the source's decimal-comma formatting into prose. Read the full correction UKA July official monthly average: reconciled and confirmed: the GBP 58.68 July official monthly average printed since 2 September was reconciled against gov.uk's CCM table on 7 September and CONFIRMED - the table's Aug-26 row lists July at 58.68 (register GOVUK-UKETS-Markets-CCM-2026-09-07). Read the full correction RECs: the desk does hold one citable price mark: the 4 September morning note said 'No citable REC price marks on our tape' beside 'three of twenty tracked rows carry a sourced traded price'; the store settles it - the DC SREC price is regulator-reported by the DC PSC and citable, so... Read the full correction · All corrections
AS OF 11 September 2026, 18:05, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the 2026-09-10 close (prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Corrections riding this note. (1) EUA rows: the 4 September evening note said our rows "carry 4,3% through". They step - the annual decrement is 86.0 flat across 2028-2030, the 4.4-percent era - and the note carried the source's decimal-comma formatting into prose. (2) EPA at OMB: two notes said a supplemental power-sector endangerment proposal entered OMB review on 24 August. OIRA's public docket shows no endangerment-titled review pending, and the second arrival is a different instrument received 18 August; our date came from a press account with an inferred weekday. Retracted. (3) RECs: the 4 September morning note said "No citable REC price marks on our tape." The DC SREC price is regulator-reported by the DC PSC and is citable, so one citable REC mark exists; the other two sourced prices are a vendor assessment of undetermined licence and are withheld. (4) UKA July official monthly average, GBP 58.68, was reconciled against gov.uk's CCM table on 7 September and confirmed. Nothing to retract; the owed reconciliation is now on the record.
Sections run in the tape's own instrument order.
EU ETS (EUA). Mark EUR 85.82, 2026-09-10, most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), settlement observation, +0.3% versus prior same-basis mark, carried from the 2026-09-10 session because the same-day file has not reached the tape. Primary print EUR 85.01, 2026-09-11, latest EEX auction clearing.
What moved: Almost nothing we can cite; today's clearing sits about 1% under the carried settle, a normal auction-to-futures relationship.
Why: A sub-1% move gets no story from this desk. Gas switching matters as a mechanism, but we carry no publishable gas leg, so no driver is attributed.
Desk view: Constructive on structure, not on the session: rows run supply 1101.4/1015.4/929.4/843.4 against demand 987.7/972.9/958.3/943.9, flipping to deficit in 2029 under Directive (EU) 2023/959. COM(2026) 616 remains a proposal and moves no row. Rows are budget minus emissions and carry no bank; the MSR is named as a mechanism, not netted.
UK ETS (UKA). Mark GBP 62.54, 2026-09-10, Dec26 settlement observation, +1.5% versus prior same-basis mark, carried prior-session. Primary print GBP 58.68, 2026-07-31, official monthly average (Dec futures), CCM table.
What moved: The carried settle is up 1.5% same-basis. The July monthly average is a different basis over a different period, so the gap to it is not a divergence to read.
Why: We searched and could not source a dated catalyst for 10 September. No cause is asserted. Linkage remains a standing desk view carried since August, not re-verified today.
Desk view: Tight rows (-2.7/-17.2/-17.6/-17.2 under SI 2020/1265 Table B as amended by SI 2026/392), no bank figure held, so a supply path rather than a scarcity call. On the UKA/EUA differential: NO CALL - the FX print is 11 days old.
California-Quebec (CCA). Mark USD 32.85, 2026-09-10, Dec26 V26 settlement observation, -0.2% same-basis, carried prior-session. Primary print USD 32.48, 2026-08-19, Auction 48 current-vintage settlement.
What moved: Flat. Mark sits about 1% over the August clearing.
Why: No session driver claimed.
Desk view: Tight and deepening (-27.0 to -84.2) on amended 17 CCR 95841 Table 6-2, effective 1 September, removing 118.3 Mt across 2027-2030. Separately, a Manufacturing Decarbonization Incentive account is created with its own 2028-2035 window; withdrawn from auction is not retired. Offsets sit under the cap per AB 1207, so supply is biased high. No bank or ceiling in the rows.
Washington (WCA). Mark USD 44.45, 2026-09-10, Dec26 V26 settlement observation, -17.4% versus prior same-basis mark, carried prior-session. Primary print USD 39.50, 2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement (Ecology publication 26-14-062).
What moved: A 17.4% same-basis drop on the carried line, and the mark still stands roughly 12.5% above the most recent auction clearing.
Why: We could not source any Washington news dated 10 or 11 September that supports a move of that size. The desk therefore asserts no cause and flags the series: this reads more like a tape defect than a repricing, and the flag travels with every future print until resolved.
Desk view: No direction taken off a flagged line. Rows are deficit throughout, but the post-2026 years are the desk's own extension, not statute; Ecology's WAC 173-446 rulemaking (adoption est. 23 September, effective est. 24 October) replaces them. The CA-Quebec-WA linkage agreement, signed by all three jurisdictions in June 2026, is the standing catalyst.
RGGI (RGA). Mark USD 39.50, 2026-09-10, Dec26 V26 settlement observation, -0.8% same-basis, carried prior-session. Primary print USD 37.65, 2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing.
What moved: Auction 73 cleared USD 37.65; the carried Dec26 mark sits about 4.9% above it, a workable auction-to-secondary discount rather than a dislocation.
Why: Virginia rejoined RGGI on 1 July 2026 (participation, regulatory) and Auction 73 is its first allowance offering since - its 11.48M H2-2026 budget allowances are offered beginning with Auction 73, spread across the 9 September and 2 December sales, with no per-auction split held here; total A73 offering was 27,389,847 allowances, all sellers, plus a separate 1,148,000 Virginia CCR tranche. The 2026 ten-state CCR was triggered and fully depleted at Auction 71 on 11 March (over 7.8M sold, clearing USD 24.99); it is a spent lever.
Desk view: Constructive, and drawdown pace is the trade, not any single compliance year: 55M short tons of allowances in circulation at end Q2 2026, projected 45M at the CP6 deadline (Potomac special Supply & Demand report, 21 August 2026), against ten-state rows in deficit from 2027 (-9.8 to -32.9). The 2028-2030 rows are the desk's linear derivation from the Rule's stated average, not statute, and the 2029/2030 rows carry a small desk adjustment (+0.071, +0.109) the instrument does not state.
NZ ETS (NZU). Mark NZD 51.00, 2026-09-04, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks), close observation, -6.9% versus prior close over a 22-day span - not a daily move.
What moved: The previewed 8 September quarterly auction, the first under Xpansiv as operator, is now reported. Carbon Pulse reported on 8 September that New Zealand's third government-held auction of 2026 again failed to clear, the seventh consecutive sale event without takers. That closes the IOU opened when we teed the date up.
Why: Secondary supply below the NZD 71 floor leaves auction volume unwanted.
Desk view: Flow is bearish against structurally tight rows, and we are weighting flow this session because the floor keeps auction supply out entirely. The -33.8 deepening to -32.6 balance is the zero-auction-supply STRESS case, labelled as such; the cleared-at-floor case is not in our validated rows, so do not read -33.8 as central.
Australia (ACCU). Primary print AUD 37.50, 2026-05-15, generic ACCU spot (CER QCMR, March quarter 2026). This is a last print past its own quarterly cadence, not a mark; secondary assessments are withheld.
What moved: No fresh mark and nothing swept for the session.
Why: Not applicable on price.
Desk view: Rows deficit and deepening (-22.8 to -34.4) on the legislated 4.9%/yr baseline decline; the FY25-26 base remains the desk's own figure pending the CER's published totals.
Alberta TIER. Primary print CAD 95.00, 2026 headline price, stated verbatim at s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement (15 May 2026). This is an administered schedule price, not a traded mark.
What moved: Nothing; NGX is held indefinitely for want of a determinable reference contract.
Why: Administered.
Desk view: The live item is clause 1.2.3.4 - credits generated before the floor regulation is enacted stay transferable below the floor, so Alberta's commitment to enact by 31 December 2026 fixes a grandfathering cutoff that prices now. Balance rows are two years behind the price.
BC LCFS. Primary print CAD 135.80, July 2026 monthly average credit transfer price. No fresh mark this session and none due.
Fuels and CA LCFS. CA LCFS credit USD 79.05, covering the week of 2026-08-31, report posted 2026-09-09, CARB weekly volume-weighted average (range USD 55.00 to 86.50). RIN prints on our tape are 20 July 2026, historic, and support no statement about current levels. Energy legs, US EIA, 2026-09-09: WTI USD 97.26/bbl, Brent USD 109.51/bbl, ULSD Gulf Coast USD 4.832/gal, Henry Hub USD 2.81/MMBtu; the desk holds no weekly energy series, so no weekly deltas are printed.
What moved: The weekly report landed on 9 September as scheduled.
Why: Not attributed - the renewable-diesel margin channel is direction-only until RIN prices are citable at cadence, and no number is claimed from it.
Desk view: The 2026Q1 balance - credits 6.93M MT against deficits 9.77M MT, net -2.84M, cumulative bank 36.86M MT - is a quarter that ended 31 March and was published 31 July; state the quarter whenever it is used. Bank drawdown remains the story.
RECs: not covered this edition. VCM: not covered this edition.
Dated ahead. Tomorrow, 12 September, is not a trading session. Today's CFTC Commitments of Traders release is OUT as of 13:30 MDT, before this note's clock; we hold no positioning figures from it on the tape. 15 September: CARB LCFS weekly credit transfer report. 16 September: Washington Emissions Containment Reserve Auction #1, the first ECR sale ever held (Ecology publication 26-14-068) - the single event most likely to reprice a WCA line we currently distrust. 18 September: next COT. 23 September: Ecology's estimated WAC 173-446 adoption date. 30 September: Washington APCR Auction #8, the annual fixed-price tier (Ecology publication 26-14-072), which is contingent supply that has not released; market commentary also expects New Zealand's final ETS settings in the Gazette by 30 September, in force 1 January 2027.
Corrections & notes