AS OF 14 September 2026, 18:05, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the 2026-09-11 close (prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
EU ETS (EUA) — mark EUR 85.52 (2026-09-11, most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), EUA, settlement observation), -0.3% vs prior same-basis mark; CARRY: carried from the 2026-09-11 session, the same-day settlement file has not reached the tape. Primary print EUR 86.44 (2026-09-14, latest EEX auction clearing price).
What moved: Today's only fresh EU figure is the auction clearing; the futures mark is a carried prior-session settle, down 0.3% and inside the threshold at which we would go looking for a cause.
Why: Correction riding this note: on 2 September we flagged that a secondary outlet carried our EEX auction print labelled as an ICE Dec-26 weekly benchmark, and queued the tape's auction tag for reconciliation. Reconciled 13 September against EEX's own 2026 auction report, where the 2 September row (Auction 4, Period CAP3 PL, successful) states the clearing at exactly the tape's figure; the tag stands, and no level is republished here because the tape now carries the 14 September clearing.
Desk view: Constructive. The forward rows run +113.7/+42.5/-28.9/-100.5 Mt and flip to deficit in 2029 under Directive (EU) 2023/959; COM(2026) 616 remains a proposal and is not in the ladder.
UK ETS (UKA) — mark GBP 62.45 (2026-09-11, most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), UKA), -0.1% vs prior same-basis mark; carried prior-session settle. Primary print GBP 58.68 (2026-07-31, official monthly average UKA settlement, Dec futures, CCM table).
What moved: Effectively nothing on our basis.
Why: No fresh settle reached the tape; the UKA/EUA differential in common currency sits at -17.1% on Dec26, narrowing to -14.8% by Dec28, on ECB EUR/GBP for 2026-09-11 with the disclosed mixed timing basis.
Desk view: Mildly constructive on deficit rows (-2.7 deepening to -17.6 Mt) under SI 2020/1265 Table B as amended by SI 2026/392; the desk holds no UK bank figure, so this is a supply path, not a scarcity call.
California-Quebec (CCA) — mark USD 32.59 (2026-09-11, most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), CCA V26), -0.8% vs prior same-basis mark; carried prior-session settle. Primary print USD 32.48 (2026-08-19, Auction 48 current-vintage settlement).
What moved: Down 0.8%, below our verification threshold, and the mark sits within half a percent of the August clearing.
Why: Not sourced, and not asserted.
Desk view: Long-biased on structure. Amended 17 CCR 95841 Table 6-2 took effect 1 September and removes 118.3 Mt across 2027-2030; rows are budget minus emissions with no bank and no ceiling netted, and 2024-2026 are estimates.
Washington (WCA) — mark USD 43.13 (2026-09-11, most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), WCA V26), -3.0% vs prior same-basis mark; carried prior-session settle. Primary print USD 39.50 (2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement, Ecology publication 26-14-062).
What moved: The largest move on the tape, down 3.0%, and the mark still stands about 9 percent above the last auction clearing.
Why: Carbon Pulse reported on 9 September that WCA futures plunged more than USD 8 after Q3 auction results showed a clear at a two-year low under USD 40, well below secondary prices ahead of the sale. The 11 September leg extends that repricing; we have not sourced a separate cause for that session and do not invent one.
Desk view: Neutral into supply. The APCR (Ecology publication 26-14-072) and the first-ever ECR sale (Ecology publication 26-14-068) are contingent supply that has not released; the linkage track was signed by all three jurisdictions in June 2026 with a linked market possible from 2027, and our post-2026 rows are the desk's own extension, not statute.
RGGI (RGA) — mark USD 39.02 (2026-09-11, most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), RGGI V26), -1.2% vs prior same-basis mark; carried prior-session settle. Primary print USD 37.65 (2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing).
What moved: Down 1.2% on the session the results printed, leaving the mark about 3.6 percent above the clear.
Why: Auction 73 sold 28,537,847 allowances at USD 37.65, comprising a 27,389,847 initial offering and 1,148,000 CCR allowances, including 5,740,000 from Virginia, which resumed participation on 1 July 2026; bids ran from USD 2.69 to USD 190. Virginia's H2-2026 volume is spread across the September and December sales. The clear was up USD 2.65 from Auction 72's USD 35.00 record, but it landed below where the Dec26 contract had been marked, and futures eased into it.
Desk view: Long structure, respect the stock. The 2026 CCR was triggered and fully depleted at Auction 71 and Virginia's tranche also released; the monitor's 55M short tons in circulation at end Q2 2026, projected 45M at the CP6 deadline, is the load-bearing claim, and drawdown pace is the trade.
NZ ETS (NZU) — NZD 51.00 (2026-09-04, NZU secondary spot, open-licensed scrape). STALE, 10 days against a 7-day cadence: a last print, not a mark, and no delta is quoted against it.
What moved: Nothing we can mark.
Why: Carbon Pulse reported on 8 September that New Zealand's third government auction of 2026 again failed to clear, the seventh consecutive sale with no takers. That closes the 8 September IOU.
Desk view: Structurally tight on paper; our zero-auction-supply rows (-33.8 deepening to -32.6 Mt) are the stress case, not the central case, which would clear at the NZD 71 floor.
Australia (ACCU) — no fresh mark; primary print AUD 37.50 (2026-05-15, generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR March quarter 2026), a quarterly last print rather than a current mark.
Desk view: Tight rows on the legislated 4.9% baseline decline; no tradeable view without a current print.
Alberta TIER — administered headline price CAD 95.00 for 2026, stated verbatim at s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement (15 May 2026). No market mark is determinable.
Desk view: The live item is the credit price floor regulation Alberta must enact by 31 December 2026; clause 1.2.3.4 grandfathers pre-enactment credits, so the cutoff is economically live now.
Fuels and LCFS — CA LCFS credit USD 79.05 (CARB weekly volume-weighted average, week of 2026-08-31, posted 2026-09-09, range 55.00-86.50). BC LCFS CAD 135.80 (2026-07 monthly average credit transfer price). D4 RIN 2.0639 and D6 RIN 2.2615 (2026-07-20, EPA EMTS) are 56 days stale, historic prints only, and carry the desk's confirm flag on nesting inversion. Energy legs, US EIA, 2026-09-09: WTI 97.26 USD/bbl, Brent 109.51 USD/bbl, ULSD Gulf Coast 4.832 USD/gal, Henry Hub 2.81 USD/MMBtu.
What moved: Our renewable-diesel margin flow channel turned up from mixed.
Why: A wider diesel-less-feedstock margin lifts RD generation and therefore credit supply, which is bearish credits at the flow.
Desk view: Flow bearish against a structurally tightening bank; we weight structure this session because 2026Q1 showed 6.93M MT credits against 9.77M MT deficits, a 2.84M MT quarterly draw on a 36.86M MT cumulative bank, and one margin turn is not a quarter.
RECs: not covered this edition. VCM: not covered this edition.
What to watch tomorrow (15 September, a trading day): CARB's weekly LCFS credit transfer report is due, and this desk will print it or say plainly that it did not land. Then Washington's ECR Auction #1 on 16 September, the first ever held (Ecology publication 26-14-068), which is the next hard supply test for a market already trading nine percent above its own Q3 clear; CFTC Commitments of Traders on 18 September; and APCR Auction #8 on 30 September (Ecology publication 26-14-072).
Correction issued 2026-09-14
The 2 September EEX auction tag: reconciled and confirmed: the 2 September evening note flagged that a secondary outlet carried the same figure as our EEX auction print, labelled as an ICE Dec-26 weekly benchmark, and queued the tape's auction tag for reconciliation. Read the full correction
Corrections & notes