AS OF 15 September 2026, 18:05, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are today's close, marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Standing convention: the forward rows below are budget minus emissions. They carry no private bank and no reserve tranche, so they are supply paths, not scarcity calls. RGGI is the one market where the desk holds a stock figure.
EU ETS (EUA) — Mark EUR 85.61 (15 September 2026, most liquid futures settlement Dec26, settlement observation), +0.1% vs prior same-basis mark. Primary print EUR 85.52 (15 September 2026, latest EEX auction clearing price); mark and clearing are nine cents apart, so there is no spread to read.
What moved: Effectively nothing on the tape, on a heavy policy day.
Why: The European Parliament voted Tuesday to accelerate adoption of the Commission's proposal granting more free EU ETS permits before 2030 to industries in the general fallback category, and to more than double the downstream products covered by CBAM relative to the Commission's proposal; it also voted to start the Temporary Decarbonisation Fund a year earlier than proposed. These are Parliament positions on a proposal, not law; COM(2026) 616 remains a proposal.
Desk view: Constructive. Rows run +113.7 in 2027 to -100.5 by 2030 under Directive (EU) 2023/959, flipping to deficit in 2029.
UK ETS (UKA) — Mark GBP 60.65 (15 September 2026, Dec26 settlement), -2.9%. Primary print GBP 58.68 (31 July 2026, official monthly average UKA settlement price, Dec futures, CCM table), a different basis 46 days old and not a same-day comparator.
What moved: The complex's worst session.
Why: Not established. The desk searched and found no same-session driver; the nearest wire is a 14 September analyst piece arguing the UK faces limited abatement options against a shrinking cap into the 2030s absent EU ETS linkage, which is commentary, not a cause we can attach to today.
Desk view: Constructive on the rows (deficit throughout under SI 2020/1265 as amended by SI 2026/392), with linkage headline risk both ways; the Dec26 differential to EUA is -17.2% in common currency, ECB EUR/GBP of 14 September, mixed timing basis disclosed.
California-Quebec (CCA) — Mark USD 31.67 (15 September 2026, Dec26 V26 settlement), -2.8%. Primary print USD 32.48 (19 August 2026, Auction 48 current-vintage settlement); the mark sits about 2.5% under that clearing, a narrow spread.
What moved: Down with UKA, on no catalyst the desk can name.
Why: Unverified. Searching produced nothing dated today.
Desk view: Constructive. Amended 17 CCR 95841 Table 6-2 took effect 1 September, removing 118.3 Mt from 2027-2030 budgets; separately, a Manufacturing Decarbonization Incentive account of 118.3M current-vintage allowances allocates 2028-2035. Two mechanisms, not one.
Washington (WCA) — Mark USD 43.50 (15 September 2026, Dec26 V26 settlement), +0.9%. Primary print USD 39.50 (2 September 2026, Auction #15 settlement; certified and summary released 9 September, Ecology publication 26-14-062).
What moved: A firm session, and the mark stands roughly 10% above the last clearing.
Why: The desk reads that premium as forward repricing rather than a data question: tomorrow's first ECR sale, Ecology's WAC 173-446 budget rulemaking (adoption estimated 23 September), and the CA-Quebec-Washington linkage agreement signed by all three jurisdictions in June 2026.
Desk view: Constructive; note the post-2026 rows are the desk's own extension of the pre-2027 decline, not statute.
RGGI (RGA) — Mark USD 39.75 (15 September 2026, Dec26 V26 settlement), +1.9%. Primary print USD 37.65 (9 September 2026, Auction 73 clearing).
What moved: Futures pushed further above the auction, a premium of about 5.6%.
Why: No single dated catalyst verified today. The structure is the story: the 2026 CCR was triggered and fully depleted at Auction 71 in March, and Virginia (which rejoined on 1 July 2026) offered budget allowances beginning with Auction 73, its 11.48M H2 volume spread across the September and December sales plus a 1.148M CCR tranche, within a 27,389,847 total.
Desk view: Constructive. Eleven states participate; the ten-state cap rows are deficit from 2027 and deepen, against a monitor surplus of 55M short tons at end Q2 2026, projected 45M at the CP6 deadline. Drawdown pace is the trade.
NZ ETS (NZU) — Last print NZD 51.00 (4 September 2026, secondary spot). Stale at 11 days against a 7-day cadence; no delta is quoted against a last print.
What moved: Nothing on our tape. The 8 September auction failed to clear, the seventh consecutive sale event with no takers, which closes that IOU.
Desk view: Neutral pending settings. The rows assume zero auction supply below the NZD 71 floor, which is the stress case, not the central case.
Australia (ACCU) — No fresh mark. Last print AUD 37.50 (15 May 2026, CER QCMR March quarter 2026), a quarterly last print.
Desk view: constructive on legislated baseline decline.
Alberta TIER — CAD 95.00 administered headline for 2026 (Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement, 15 May 2026, s.1.2.1.1). No tradeable mark: the feed carries no open interest.
Desk view: schedule-driven to CAD 100 in 2027.
BC LCFS — CAD 135.80 (July 2026 monthly average credit transfer price). No fresher print.
Desk view: neutral.
Fuels — D4 RIN 2.0639, D6 2.2615, D5 2.3402, D3 2.582 (all 20 July 2026, EPA EMTS weekly VWA) are 57 days old and historic, not marks [confirm: nesting inversion, cross-check against a commercial assessment]. CA LCFS credit USD 79.05, week of 31 August 2026, CARB weekly report posted 9 September. Today's weekly was due; whether it posted is unverified from this vantage and is carried as an IOU. Energy legs (EIA, 9 September): ULSD Gulf Coast 4.832 USD/gal, WTI 97.26 USD/bbl, Brent 109.51 USD/bbl.
Desk view: direction only on the renewable-diesel margin channel; the desk holds no current licensed RIN price.
RECs: not covered this edition. VCM: not covered this edition.
Tomorrow. Washington's Emissions Containment Reserve Auction #1, the first ECR sale ever held (Ecology publication 26-14-068) — a live bid-behaviour read and the hard event of the session. Then CFTC Commitments of Traders on 18 September, Ecology's estimated WAC 173-446 adoption 23 September, the next CARB weekly on 22 September, the APCR Auction #8 on 30 September (Ecology publication 26-14-072), and New Zealand's final settings expected in the Gazette by 30 September.
Corrections & notes
Open IOUs (from this edition's own confirm flags): - confirm: nesting inversion, cross-check against a commercial assessment