RGGI (RGA). Mark: 35.00, 2026-06-03, Auction 72 clearing price (primary print).
What moved: Connecticut's Third Program Review rulemaking received fresh coverage yesterday (the rulemaking itself opened in July, with the public comment period closed August 3): That roughly 8.5 million ton-per-year decline is the RGGI regional cap step across the ten participating states, per the regional model rule - Connecticut's own 2026 cap is about 4.1 million allowances - and Connecticut's rulemaking aligns its state rules to that regional trajectory. Our monitors also flag RGAs drifting lower on thin volume into the quarterly (Carbon Pulse, Aug 17).
Why: States must have Model Rule–aligned regulations effective Jan 1, 2027 — each participating state committed to amend its rules to be effective by 1 January 2027 ; CT is on schedule, not breaking new ground. Near-term supply is the swing factor: 1.148 mn CCR allowances become available beginning with the 73rd auction in September 2026, and Virginia supplies an additional 11.48 mn standard 2026-vintage allowances across the final two auctions of the year — distributed over the final two auctions, with the per-sale split not specified in the notice.
Desk view (judgment): Neutral-to-soft into Auction 73 on September 9, 2026 (the notice sets the 73rd auction for that date) , a Wednesday consistent with RGGI's cadence: Virginia tonnage plus a fresh CCR tranche outweighs a 2027 tightening that is already well telegraphed. Bullish beyond December.
CCA (WCI). Mark: 28.81, May 2026 joint auction, current-vintage settlement (primary print).
What moved: Nothing new overnight; no California–Quebec development in the last 24 hours.
Why: The complex is waiting on program-amendment implementation and the next joint sale, not headlines.
Desk view (judgment): Neutral, with a soft floor bias — the last settle sits close to the reserve, and nothing this week changes that.
Washington (WCA). Mark: 64.56, 2026-06 current-vintage settlement (Auction #14).
What moved: Only county-level heat-pump program news — not a market driver.
Desk view (judgment): Neutral; the linkage file remains the only real repricing catalyst.
Alberta TIER. Mark: 95.00, 2025-05, TIER fund price (frozen since May 2025).
What moved: No TIER development. Yesterday's Alberta Utilities Commission denial of the Olds data-centre generation project (The Albertan, Aug 17) is siting, not carbon policy.
Desk view (judgment): Neutral; the fund-price freeze caps compliance cost and keeps TIER credits rangebound.
Standing context, not today's news: EPA's rescission of the 2009 Endangerment Finding was finalized February 12, 2026 and published February 18, 2026 , and importantly it directly repeals only the motor-vehicle GHG standards; the power-plant GHG rules, methane rules, and the GHG Reporting Program remain formally in place but face active EPA rollback proceedings resting on the same rationale, so their footing is contested, not untouched. Read: no incremental bearish federal impulse for RGGI/WCI from that file this morning.
CA LCFS. Mark: 74.80, 2026-08-09, CARB weekly snapshot, volume-weighted average of all non-zero transfers.
What moved: Crude is the story. Brent closed near $88.8 on Monday, up about 0.3% on the day per Reuters and Investing prints, on the memorandum's expiry day, with intraday prints reaching toward $91; the desk's tape holds no Brent settlement print of its own, so the close-basis figure is carried as reported.
Why: Higher crude lifts the diesel/gasoline pool value against which credit costs are passed through, and supports renewable-fuel margins — constructive for credit demand at the margin, though the CA balance still governs.
Desk view (judgment): Mildly bullish CA LCFS credits on crude strength; a Hormuz escalation is the upside tail. RINs. Marks: D4 2.41 and D6 2.37, both 2026-06-04, traded RIN prices — stale prints; no new tape today.
Desk view: bullish bias with crude, low conviction absent a fresh mark.
No mark for REC contracts in our tape this morning — stated as missing, not estimated.
What moved: Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador reached a tentative multi-billion-dollar energy agreement (BNN Bloomberg, Aug 17) — long-dated hydro supply, not a near-term Northeast REC input. Equinix signed a Singapore renewables PPA (Aug 18), outside US RPS.
Desk view (judgment): Neutral; nothing in the last 24 hours moves compliance REC balances.
SBTi: no new development. As context, the Corporate Net-Zero Standard v2.0 was published June 11, 2026. A Renewal Policy, expected Q4 2026, will set out how OER and other V2.0 elements become accessible across the SBTi system; the OER programme itself launches with validation opening in Q1 2027. The standard takes effect 1 February 2027, with a transition period running to Q1 2028, and mandatory carbon-removal requirements apply from 2035. Removals: Our monitors flag a large unattributed change to Puro Standard General Rules v4.4 (unverified — substance not yet confirmed; not tradable until a second source lands).
Desk view (judgment): Neutral VCM; durable-removal pricing stays supply-constrained and guidance-dependent.
EU ETS (EUA). Marks: 81.25, 2026-08-11, latest EEX auction clearing price (primary); 81.79, 2026-08-18, EUA benchmark mirror (CFD tracking ICE Dec), −0.1% vs prior same-basis mark.
What moved: Flat overnight; the aviation extension to sub-5,000km flights remains a proposal from mid-July, applying from 2029 — proposed, not adopted.
Desk view (judgment): Mildly constructive — energy-complex strength and gas-switching economics support EUAs.
UK ETS (UKA). Mark: 60.28, 2026-08-18, secondary market, Dec-2026 futures current price (interim reference). Korean trading-house interest in UK ETS and CORSIA (Carbon Pulse, Aug 18) is flow colour, not fundamentals.
Desk view: neutral, linkage-headline sensitive.
ACCU. Mark: 38.95, 2026-08-17, generic spot last close, −0.9% vs prior same-basis mark. BHP's emissions rose with greater ACCU reliance (Carbon Pulse, Aug 18) .
Desk view: mildly bullish — Safeguard buyers keep bidding a thin market. NZU. Mark: 55.60, 2026-08-03, secondary spot (interim reference). No new development.