EU ETS (EUA) Mark: 81.72, 2026-08-19, EUA benchmark mirror (CFD tracking ICE Dec), -0.44% vs the prior same-family verified print (the 82.08 below; basis reconciliation: the tape's tagged -0.1% chains off the retired 81.79 anchor, so the desk recomputes exactly against the verified in-note print per the delta-anchor rule - tape-side retag queued). Separate basis: primary print 81.25, 2026-08-11, most recent retrieved EEX auction clearing price - an ingestion gap, with the Aug 13, 14, 17 and 18 sales outstanding to the desk; secondary 82.08, 2026-08-18, secondary market mirror. Never netted across bases.
What moved: Little. Forty-four hundredths of a percent against the verified Aug 18 same-family print is sub-threshold noise, not a story, and no fresh primary print has reached the desk since Aug 11.
Why: With a move under 1 percent the desk asserts no cause. The dated supply fact that matters is forward, not today: EEX's revised calendar published July 30 sets 2,791,500 allowances per common-platform sale from September to December 2026 - below the ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED 2,845,500 (revision pending primary verification against the EEX notice; the desk's long-verified post-MS-RRF interim clip is 2,817,500) - with 190,494,202 allowances in the MSR for September 2026 to August 2027. Common platform only, Mon/Tue/Thu; nothing here is a German-Friday or Polish-Wednesday effect.
Desk view: Constructive. Our forward rows show a surplus narrowing from +113.7 Mt to a 2029 deficit under the Directive (EU) 2023/959 LRF, - and note the September flow honestly: per-session supply RISES on Sept 1 as the RRF-completion cut lapses. Evidence: RRF volumes rode inside common-platform sessions, and their completion cut the running clip from 2,817,500 to 2,246,500 effective Jul 14 per the Commission's Jun 22 (MS-RRF, 111,455,000 allowances) and Jul 13 (IF-RRF, 167.1M) suspension notices - a level confirmed live by the Thursday Aug 13 common-platform session at exactly 2,246,500. Sept 1 restores a higher clip at 2,791,500, below the originally scheduled level but above today's flow.
UK ETS (UKA) Mark: 60.28, 2026-08-19, secondary market, front futures (interim reference, not a primary; unchanged from the Aug-17 carry - a live public tracker printed 58.49 GBP on Aug 19, roughly 3% below, so the plausibility flag stands until a fresh sourced quote lands).
What moved: Flat on the same quote the desk has carried on recent dates. No primary UK auction print in hand.
Why: No verified UK-specific catalyst today; linkage negotiation remains the live regulatory driver rather than a dated event.
Desk view: Bullish structurally, deficit throughout on SI 2020/1265 rows, but this mark is an interim reference and the desk still owes the 2025 ETS-verified figure from the May 2026 DESNZ report.
California-Quebec (CCA) Mark: 28.81, 2026-05-20 joint auction, current-vintage settlement price. No fresh mark today.
What moved: Joint Auction #48 was held today under the notice CARB and MELCCFP released for August 2026. There is no settlement price until results publish, and the desk will not attach one.
Why: Results come on the release date, not auction day. The 47th joint auction results, covering current vintages 2024 and 2026 plus 2029 advance, were released at noon on the seventh day after that sale, which points to Wednesday Aug 26 for #48; the desk has not read that line in the #48 notice, so treat the date as expected rather than confirmed.
Desk view: Tight and deepening on our rows, with the ~118M-removal amendment effective Sept 1 as the supply tripwire. Any weak cover ratio next week reads as bank behavior, not cap change.
Washington (WCA) Mark: 64.56, 2026-06, current-vintage settlement, Auction #14. No fresh mark.
What moved: Nothing traded to the desk. WCI, Inc. lists both the September 2026 Washington auction notice and the September APCR notice as available on Ecology's site.
Desk view: Deficit throughout, but the (a) rows sit on the current statutory slope only because Ecology's post-2026 budget rule, due Oct 1, has not issued. That rulemaking re-rows the market.
RGGI (RGA) Mark: 35.0, 2026-06-03, Auction 72 clearing price. No fresh mark.
What moved: Calendar only. Auction 73 is confirmed for September 9, 2026 in RGGI's auction materials, a Wednesday consistent with the venue.
Why: Supply detail is regulatory. Virginia supplies 1.148 million CCR allowances beginning with the 73rd auction plus 11.48 million standard 2026-vintage allowances across the final two auctions of 2026, which is 5.74M at Auction 73, not the full half-year budget.
Desk view: Tightening into 2029 on ten-state rows - the basis corrected this morning per RGGI.org's Third Program Review scope note, which states the 69.8M ladder EXCLUDES Virginia until DEQ's January 1, 2027 budget rule (the balances page reflects it) - cushioned by the ~67M private bank, with Virginia's separate H2-2026 auction volume as the near-term offset.
NZ ETS (NZU) Mark: 55.6, 2026-08-03, secondary spot (interim reference); older separately-sourced scrape mark 56.0, 2026-07-23. Bases not netted; both stale - and both sit well above the last independently corroborated secondary level (~NZD 42, Mar-Apr 2026), a plausibility gap that stays flagged until a corroborated print lands.
Why: Auctions clear nothing below the NZD 71 floor, so the primary lane is silent by design.
Desk view: Deep structural deficit, price capped by the secondary market's own liquidity. Correction, stated out loud: the September auction is Tuesday Sept 8 per MfE INFO 1349, superseding the Sept 3 this desk published on Aug 17.
Australia (ACCU) Mark: 38.95, 2026-08-18, generic spot last close, +0.0%; primary 37.5, 2026-05-15, CER QCMR March quarter.
Why: Flat close, no cause asserted.
Desk view: Deficit deepening on the legislated 4.9 percent baseline decline.
Fuels (RINs, CA LCFS, BC LCFS, Alberta TIER) Marks: CA LCFS credit 76.39, 2026-08-16, CARB weekly snapshot volume-weighted average of non-zero transfers; D4 RIN 2.41 and D6 RIN 2.37, both 2026-06-04 traded prices; BC LCFS 135.8, 2026-07 monthly average transfer price; Alberta TIER 95.0, 2025-05 fund price, frozen.
What moved: The CARB weekly landed as flagged and is carried here. RIN marks are over two months stale, so no fresh mark.
Desk view: LCFS is the only live tape in this block; the TIER fund price stays frozen, with no repricing signaled on the record.
Tomorrow, Aug 20 Thursday is a common-platform EUA auction day; the calendar keeps common-platform sales on Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays. No North American allowance auction is scheduled. The watch list is WCI Auction 48 results in the coming week, the Sept 1 clip change (per-session supply RISES from the running 2,246,500 - the RRF-cut clip, Commission suspension notices Jun 22/Jul 13, confirmed by the Aug 13 session - to 2,791,500; the revised schedule still sits below the original) and the CA-QC amendment effective the same day, then Sept 8 NZ and Sept 9 RGGI.