California–Québec (CCA). Mark: 28.81, May 2026 joint auction, current-vintage settlement price (desk tape).
What moved: The joint auction is held today. CARB and Québec's MELCCFP announced on June 19, 2026 that the next joint carbon market auction would be held on August 19, 2026. No settle exists until results are released; today's note carries only the prior print.
Why: Supply into this sale comes from the auction notice, not the annual budget; the structural story is the ~118M-allowance removal amendment taking effect September 1, 2026 (desk record, not re-sourced this morning), which the desk's forward balances already treat as the cause of a deepening WCI deficit (-12.0Mt 2027, -42.5Mt by 2030).
Desk view: Constructive/bullish CCA into results. Judgment: with the forward table in deficit throughout and a supply cut days away, subscription risk skews to a clear above-floor clear rather than a soft one; a weak cover ratio would be the surprise, not the base case.
RGGI (RGA). Mark: 35.0, 2026-06-03, Auction 72 clearing price (desk tape).
What moved: Nothing new overnight in the RGGI complex. Standing context: New York finalized Third Program Review regulations on August 5; New Jersey filed formally to align two days later. Connecticut's conforming amendments remain in draft/regulatory review, targeted for Jan 1, 2027.
Why: That finalization is what makes the desk's 69.8Mt/2027 supply ladder declining 8.5Mt/yr bankable - and per RGGI.org's own scope note those volumes are TEN-STATE, excluding Virginia, whose 2027-onward budget awaits DEQ's rulemaking due January 1, 2027. Correcting this note's earlier arithmetic out loud: an earlier version ran an eleven-state demand anchor against that ten-state supply ladder, overstating the deficit. On the matching ten-state basis the balance runs +10.4Mt in 2027, narrows to +2.5Mt in 2028, and flips to deficit from 2029 (-5.4Mt, then -13.3Mt by 2030), with a roughly 67M private allowance bank (July 2025, market monitor) as the cushion; both rows re-state when Virginia's budget lands.
Desk view: Bullish RGA on the forward, neutral on the session. Judgment: the tightening is regulatory, arrives as the 2029 balance flip against a drawable bank, and is already known; the live downside watch is power-sector demand — Massachusetts emissions roughly halved year-on-year in state reporting — while EPA's final power-plant GHG repeal has sat at OMB since May 14, 2026 under a review clock of up to 90 days , now elapsed with no Federal Register publication confirmed from this vantage. Federal repeal is mildly bearish RGGI at the margin (it removes the federal floor under coal retirements).
Alberta TIER. Mark: 95.0, 2025-05, TIER fund price, frozen since May 2025 (desk tape).
What moved: No Alberta development overnight.
Why: The fund price freeze remains the binding compliance-cost ceiling; the named repricer is the end-2026 TIER review.
Desk view: Neutral. Judgment: no trade until the review produces text.
California LCFS. Mark: 76.39, 2026-08-16, CARB weekly snapshot, volume-weighted average of all non-zero transfers (desk tape).
What moved: No new weekly snapshot beyond the August 16 print has reached the desk this morning. Overnight fuels colour is feedstock-side only — Gulf UCO bid higher, European RD premiums firmer (Aug 14 wires).
Why: Firmer UCO and RD premiums raise the cost of physically generating credits, which is credit-supportive; separately, EPA's February 12, 2026 rescission of the endangerment finding repealed all federal GHG standards for light-, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles , leaving state LCFS programs as the primary state-level binding transport-carbon compliance mechanism in the US, with federal GHG vehicle standards now repealed under the Feb 12 rescission (RFS and CAFE remain operative under separate statutory authority).
Desk view: Mildly bullish CA LCFS credits. Judgment: tightening CI-step schedules plus costlier waste-oil feedstock compress generator economics; the risk to this view is a diesel-demand slump.
No REC price marks in the desk tape this morning — stated as missing, not estimated.
What moved: Nothing market-moving; Michigan litigation commentary and an Illinois Power Agency page delta of five words are administrative noise until a second source shows substance.
Desk view: Neutral pending a print.
No VCM mark in the desk tape.
SBTi (standing context): the final Corporate Net-Zero Standard v2.0 was released in June 2026 , and submissions may use v1.3.1 or v2.0 from Q1 2027 until January 31, 2028, after which v2.0 becomes mandatory . Removals: the June 11 revision formalized a three-phase removals approach with three levels of recognition and a shared-responsibility route for Scope 3 .
Desk view: Neutral-to-constructive durable removals, bearish generic avoidance. Judgment: mandatory-use timing is 2028, so demand is a 2027 story, not an August one. Our monitors flag a large unscored change to Puro's General Rules v4.4 — substance unverified; treat as a watch item for CORC supply, not a trade.
EU ETS (EUA). Mark: 81.72, 2026-08-19, EUA benchmark mirror (CFD tracking ICE Dec), -0.1% vs prior same-basis mark; primary print 81.25, 2026-08-11, latest EEX auction clearing.
What moved: Flat overnight on the mirror basis.
Why: Forward balances still show a +113.7Mt surplus in 2027 flipping to deficit in 2029 under the Directive (EU) 2023/959 LRF; COM(2026) 616 remains a proposal — desk record — and analysts cut 2026-27 forecasts on reform risk in late July.
Desk view: Neutral front, bullish 2029+ spreads.
UK ETS (UKA). Mark: 60.28, 2026-08-19, secondary front futures (interim reference).
Desk view: Bullish on a deficit throughout (-8.7Mt 2027); linkage headlines are the swing factor.