EU ETS (EUA) Mark: 82.24 (2026-08-20, EUA benchmark mirror, CFD tracking ICE Dec, close observation), +0.6% vs prior same-basis mark. Primary print: 81.0 (2026-08-20, latest EEX auction clearing price). Separate bases, never netted.
What moved: The mirror gained 0.6 percent, the largest verified move on tonight's tape and still inside the one percent threshold that would compel a sourced cause.
Why: No catalyst is asserted. Structurally, the forward table shows 2027 supply 1101.4 against demand 987.7, a +113.7 balance narrowing to deficit in 2029 on the Directive (EU) 2023/959 LRF; COM(2026) 616 remains a proposal and has not re-rowed anything.
Desk view: Constructive with the tightening table, not with today's tick. Tomorrow is a Friday, the German slot on the common auction signature, so treat any clearing that prints as a primary and not as a mirror comparison.
UK ETS (UKA) Mark: 60.28 (2026-08-17, secondary market, UKA Futures, interim reference, not a primary auction print; UNCHANGED since 2026-08-17, carried forward, not re-observed). DATA-QUALITY FLAG, open since 2026-08-19: a live public tracker printed GBP 58.49 that session, roughly 3 percent below this carried level.
What moved: No fresh mark. A carried figure is not a flat market, and this one has now travelled several sessions without re-observation.
Why: Our capture has not re-sourced the series; the flag stays attached until a fresh dated quote replaces it.
Desk view: No direction is tradeable off a stale mark. Fundamentals stay deficit throughout (2027 balance -8.7 on SI 2020/1265), with EU linkage negotiations the live regulatory driver on that read.
California-Quebec (CCA) Mark: 28.81 (May 2026 joint auction, current-vintage settlement price). No fresh mark.
What moved: Nothing printed. CARB's 2026 schedule has the August joint auction conducted 19 August 2026, and no settlement price is public tonight.
Why: Summary results post after the auction on the jurisdictions' own timetable, so the Auction 48 result remains an open IOU carried from our preview.
Desk view: Table is deficit throughout and deepening (-12.0 in 2027). The ~118M amendment effective 1 September redirects allowances to another program channel rather than retiring them; that distinction matters before anyone prices it as scarcity.
Washington (WCA) Mark: 64.56 (2026-06, current-vintage settlement, Auction #14). No fresh mark.
What moved: Nothing. Rows remain an assumption on the current statutory slope.
Why: Ecology's post-2026 budget rule, due 1 October 2026, has not issued; it re-rows supply on publication. Containment here is the APCR, not RGGI's CCR.
Desk view: Tight on paper (-12.4 in 2027), but the mark is two months old; treat it as a reference, not a level.
RGGI (RGA) Mark: 35.0 (2026-06-03, Auction 72 clearing price). No fresh mark.
What moved: Nothing on our tape; the clearing is now eleven weeks old and we carry no sourced secondary quote tonight.
Why: 1.148 million CCR allowances become available beginning with the 73rd auction in September 2026, supplied by Virginia, and Virginia's second-half 2026 budget of 11.48 million allowances enters the 9 September and 2 December sales.
Desk view: No directional call against a stale auction print with the secondary unquoted. Auction 73 on 9 September is the next real information.
NZ ETS (NZU) Mark: 55.6 (2026-08-03, secondary market, spot settlement, interim reference) and 56.0 (2026-07-23, NZU secondary spot, open-licensed scrape, close observation). No fresh mark.
What moved: Nothing today; two dated observations on different bases stand.
Why: Rows assume auctions clear zero below the NZD 71 floor. From September 2026, CBL Markets (Australia), an Xpansiv company, operates the NZ ETS auctions.
Desk view: Deficit but supply-inert. The 8 September sale is an operational test as much as a price event.
Australia (ACCU) Mark: 39.15 (2026-08-19, Generic ACCU spot last close, close observation), +0.5% vs prior same-basis mark. Secondary 38.95 (2026-08-17); primary 37.5 (2026-05-15, CER QCMR, March quarter).
What moved: The Aug 19 close, up 0.5 percent. No Aug 20 close is carried, so today has no fresh mark.
Why: Below threshold, no cause asserted. Safeguard rows are deficit throughout (-22.8 in 2027) on the legislated 4.9 percent baseline decline.
Desk view: Constructive with the table; re-observe before extending the series.
Alberta TIER and fuels Marks: TIER 95.0 (2025-05, fund price, frozen since May 2025); BC LCFS 135.8 (2026-07 monthly average credit transfer price); CA LCFS 76.39 (2026-08-16, CARB weekly snapshot, volume-weighted average of all non-zero transfers); D4 RIN 2.41 and D6 RIN 2.37 (2026-06-04, traded RIN price, EIA). No fresh marks.
What moved: Nothing dated today across the group.
Why: Alberta's own freeze holds the fund price at 95 through 2026; the May 15 Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement publishes 115 in 2030 rising to 140 by 2040, with 2026 to 2030 rises to $100 in 2027--2029, then $115 in 2030, reaching $140 by 2040 via a 1.5% annual escalator from 2036.
Desk view: Hold. RIN marks are eleven weeks old and carry no directional weight tonight.
Open IOUs: WCI Auction 48 result; UKA divergence flag; RGGI ten-state CAMPD totals (the demand anchor must match the ten-state supply ladder per RGGI.org's Third Program Review scope note; Virginia's budget arrives with DEQ's Jan 1, 2027 rule); UK 2025 ETS verified emissions.