California-Quebec (CCA) — Mark: 28.81, May 2026 joint auction, current-vintage settlement price (desk tape).
What moved: Auction 48 was held Wednesday 19 August; results are released today, per the published 2026 joint-auction calendar (CARB 2026 expected dates). No clearing price exists on our tape until it prints — we will not pre-empt it. Quebec's C&T regulation (Q-2, r.46.1) also shows a text update this morning on our monitors, substance unverified.
Why: This is the last sale under the pre-amendment budget: CARB's 29 May amendments take effect 1 September and remove ~118 mln allowances across 2027-2030, roughly a tenth of our forward supply rows, which already show deficit throughout (-12.0 mln 2027 widening to -42.5 mln 2030). Separately, and not a redirection of that removal, the amendments create a dedicated Manufacturing Decarbonization Incentive account with its own 2028-2035 allocation window.
Desk view: Constructive. Our forward balance is short every year out; judgment is that any soft print today is a scarcity-driven buying opportunity, not a signal.
Washington (WCA) — Mark: 64.56, 2026-06, current-vintage settlement (Auction #14).
What moved: Nothing new overnight; WAC 173-446 shows only a two-word delta, administrative until confirmed.
Why: Rows sit on the current statutory slope (supply 44.3 mln 2027 vs demand 56.7 mln) only because Ecology's post-2026 budget rule, due 1 October, has not issued.
Desk view: Bullish structurally, quiet tactically. The October rulemaking is the repricer.
RGGI (RGA) — Mark: 35.0, 2026-06-03, Auction 72 clearing price.
What moved: No fresh development. Standing context: NY finalized the Third Program Review rule 5 August; Auction 73 is 9 September (Wednesday cadence) with 1.148 mln CCR available and Virginia standard allowances beginning.
Why: Eleven-state rows flip from +10.4 mln (2027) to deficit in 2029; the ~67 mln private bank (Potomac, July 2025) is the cushion delaying that repricing.
Desk view: Mildly bullish into 9 September, tempered — softer regional power emissions is the loosening risk.
Alberta TIER — Mark: 95.0, 2025-05 TIER fund price, frozen since May 2025.
What moved: No Alberta-specific news overnight.
Why: The repricer is the 15 May Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement schedule ($100 for 2027-2029, $115 in 2030, to $140 by 2040) plus a credit floor Alberta must enact by 31 December 2026; the Agreement grandfathers pre-enactment credits below the floor.
Desk view: Bullish credits, and the grandfathering cutoff makes vintage selection live now, not in 2030.
CA LCFS — Mark: 77.19, CARB weekly volume-weighted average credit transfer price, week of 2026-08-17 (range 68.50-82.50). BC LCFS — Mark: 135.8, 2026-07 monthly average credit transfer price. Canada CFR: no citable mark on our tape; ECCC credit-retirement data remains unpublished.
What moved: Oregon's OAR 340-253 Clean Fuels rule shows a document update this morning (substance unverified). Next CARB weekly print is 1 September.
Why: Crude held above its 50-day EMA on US-Iran tension (FXEmpire, 21 Aug); firmer petroleum keeps deficit generation and renewable-fuel margins supported. US ethanol stocks hit a 15-week high (Quantum, 19 Aug) — a loosening offset. RINs: our D4/D6 prints are 83 days stale and not a current mark; the live story is farm-group pressure on RFS small-refinery exemptions.
Desk view: Neutral-to-firm CA LCFS credits; the wide 68.50-82.50 transfer range says liquidity, not direction.
No citable traded REC mark on our tape — by design, since carve-out SRECs and bundled Class I certificates do not average. Our monitors flag MISO Business Practice Manual updates this morning (uncovered elsewhere) and South Korea replacing its 15-year-old RPS (Asian Power, 26 Aug) — offshore precedent, no US read-through.
Desk view: Neutral; state-level ACP schedules, not power prices, set the ceilings here.
SBTi: no movement. Standing context: Corporate Net-Zero Standard v2.0 published 11 June 2026, effective 1 February 2027 — the demand-side variable that matters.
Removals: Puro's General Rules v4.4 shows a large document change on our monitors (substance not yet diffed). A well-plugging protocol and shipping-retrofit credits were reported 25 August (Quantum).
Article 6: Gold Standard and Verra launched a joint corresponding-adjustments reporting tool on 20 August, giving host countries one consolidated CA record and auto-populating summary tables for 2026 Biennial Transparency Reports (Verra).
Desk view: Bullish authorized/CORSIA-eligible units at the margin — CA evidence is an eligibility gate, and plumbing that de-risks it widens the buyer set.
EU ETS (EUA) — Mark: 83.45, 2026-08-25, latest EEX auction clearing price.
What moved: No policy print overnight. COM(2026) 616 remains a proposal only.
Why: Surplus narrows from +113.7 mln (2027) to deficit by 2029 under the Directive (EU) 2023/959 LRF.
Desk view: Constructive on dips; the tightening is legislated, the loosening is only proposed.
UK ETS (UKA) — Mark: 58.68, 2026-07 official monthly average Dec-futures settlement (CCM table), +2.9% vs prior same-basis mark.
What moved: Ofgem announced a 4% price-cap rise for 1 October-31 December this morning, to £1,723 typical dual-fuel, citing high international gas prices amid the Middle East conflict (Ofgem).
Why: UK rows are in deficit throughout (-6.5 mln 2027) post-maritime extension (SI 2026/392, in force 1 July).
Desk view: Bullish bias, but judgment: expensive gas cuts burn and demand-destroys at the margin — that caps upside near-term.
NZU 54.77 (2026-08-13 secondary spot, -2.2%) into the 8 September auction; ACCU 37.5 (2026-05-15, CER QCMR March quarter). Both structurally short.