Correction issued 27 August 2026 — the desk's price basis changes with this note. Price basis: from today this desk marks RGGI and California-Quebec off the front-month futures settlement rather than the last auction clearing price. Nothing published before today was false - every figure was the auction print it was stated to be - but an auction is a quarterly event, and an auction print describes the market in the week it prints and drifts from it for the three months afterwards. Both ends of that are visible on this desk right now: the California-Quebec print is the 19 August joint auction and sits close to where the market is trading, while the RGGI print is Auction 72 of 3 June and the traded market has moved well above it. Front month is what a compliance buyer transacts against, so that is what the tape now carries, stated as front month with its contract month named. · All corrections
Our last note published 26 August; where the tape cannot support a gap comparison below, we say so rather than imply a flat market.
California–Quebec (CCA) — primary print 32.48 (August 2026 joint auction, current-vintage settlement price); mark 32.74 (2026-08-27, Front-month futures settlement (Sep26), CCA V26, settlement observation), +1.0% vs prior same-basis mark.
What moved: Auction 48 results landed 26 August. Current-vintage allowances settled at $32.48, $3.67 above the prior quarterly settlement, with all 49,016,180 current-vintage allowances sold — a fifth consecutive sold-out sale . We have no separately marked futures level for the 26 August session; the tape's +1.0% is against the prior same-basis mark, not a two-day change.
Why: It was the first auction since CARB finalised the Cap-and-Invest amendments in May . Our forward rows show joint balance −12.0/−22.0/−32.2/−42.5 Mt across 2027-30 — deficit throughout and deepening — and those rows are still PRE-amendment. The 29 May amendments take effect Tuesday 1 September, cutting California budgets to 225.6 Mt in 2027 (from 240) and 158.8 Mt in 2030 (from 200.5), ~117.7 Mt over four years. Note the rows model offset-driven allowance retirement at zero, which biases supply high.
Desk view: Bullish CCA into and through 1 September. Fact: sold-out auction plus a supply cut taking effect. Judgment: the amendment is not fully in the curve.
Washington (WCA) — primary print 64.56 (2026-06, current-vintage settlement (Auction #14)). No fresher WCA mark on our tape.
What moved: Carbon Pulse headlined WCAs dipping ahead of the Q3 auction this morning; the September Washington auction notice is posted on Ecology's website . We hold no marked secondary level for the gap window.
Why: Rows sit on the current statutory slope (−12.4 Mt 2027, widening to −24.2 Mt by 2030) only because Ecology's post-2026 budget rule, due 1 October, has not issued.
Desk view: Neutral-to-constructive; the deficit is structural but the October rulemaking is the repricer, not this auction.
RGGI (RGA) — primary print 35.0 (2026-06-03, Auction 72 clearing price); mark 41.7 (2026-08-27, Front-month futures settlement (Sep26), RGGI V26, settlement observation), −1.9% vs prior same-basis mark.
What moved: A supplemental proposal to permanently end EPA regulation of power-plant carbon entered White House review on Monday, expected out alongside the rule undoing the 2024 CCS-based standards . As context, EPA sent the underlying final repeal to OMB on 14 May 2026 ; nothing is in the Federal Register yet. A proposal is not a rule.
Why: Federal withdrawal makes RGGI the binding power-sector constraint in its eleven states. Rows: 69.8M 2027 declining ~8.5M/yr, flipping to deficit in 2029; the ~67M private bank is the cushion.
Desk view: Mildly bullish RGA on the structural tightening, but the futures mark's −1.9% is honest — a 67M bank does not reprice on a proposal. Auction 73 on Wednesday 9 September (1.148M CCR, Virginia standard allowances begin) is the near catalyst.
Alberta TIER — primary print 95.0 (2025-05, TIER fund price, frozen since May 2025).
What moved: Nothing in the gap window. Standing context: the 15 May 2026 Canada–Alberta Implementation Agreement sets $95 in 2026, $100 for 2027-29, $115 in 2030, rising to $140 by 2040, with a credit floor from $60 in 2030 and Alberta to enact the floor regulation by 31 December 2026.
Desk view: Bullish deferred TIER credits, neutral spot. Judgment: clause 1.2.3.4 grandfathers pre-enactment credits below the floor, so enactment timing is economically live now.
CA LCFS — 77.19 (2026-08-17, CARB weekly volume-weighted average credit transfer price, week of 2026-08-17, range 68.50–82.50).
What moved: No new weekly print in the gap; the next CARB weekly report is due 1 September.
Why: 2026Q1 — not current — showed 6.93M MT credits against 9.77M MT deficits, a −2.84M MT quarter, bank 36.86M MT. As context from 11 August, EIA raised its Q3 Brent forecast to $85/bbl (EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2026); firmer crude lifts the petroleum baseline and supports credit demand.
Desk view: Constructive LCFS. Fact: two-way quarterly deficit and a wide 68.50–82.50 transfer range. Judgment: thin liquidity, so size accordingly.
BC LCFS — 135.8 (2026-07, Monthly average credit transfer price). No fresh development; desk view neutral, awaiting the next monthly.
Canada CFR — no citable market mark on our tape; ECCC's credit-retirement data remains unpublished, so absolute volumes cannot be stated. Desk view: no view without data.
No new US RPS development in the gap window. Standing: 15 states tracked, 5,331,457 MWh of RECs, 33 active projects. We publish no portfolio-average REC price by design — a solar carve-out SREC and a bundled Class I REC are different obligations. Desk view: neutral, with PJM data-centre load growth (20 August, POWER) the medium-term Tier 1 demand story.
SBTi. No news in the window. Standing context: Corporate Net-Zero Standard v2.0 was published 11 June 2026; validations against V2.0 open 1 February 2027, V1.3.1 submissions close 31 January 2028, and V2.0 becomes mandatory 1 February 2028. The separate commitment route closes 31 January 2027. Desk view: neutral near-term — demand impact is a 2027 story.
Removals / CORCs / Puro. Fresh: a public consultation opened this week on a new CRCF-compliant biochar certification methodology, running 30 days with feedback due 24 September 2026 . The EU BCR standard has two tracks: Track A for biochar applied to soil, Track B for biochar in cement, concrete or asphalt . Desk view: mildly bullish CRCF-eligible biochar; standardisation is the precondition for compliance-adjacent bid.
Article 6 / GCC. As context from 24 August, a French standard reported it would issue Egypt agroforestry credits imminently (Quantum). No price view.
EU ETS (EUA) — primary print 82.4 (2026-08-28, Latest EEX auction clearing price).
What moved: No confirmed EU policy development in the gap window.
Why: Rows show balance +113.7/+42.5/−28.9/−100.5, surplus narrowing to deficit in 2029 under Directive (EU) 2023/959; COM(2026) 616 remains a proposal only.
Desk view: Bullish deferred EUAs, neutral prompt.
UK ETS (UKA) — 58.68 (2026-07, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table, monthly-final observation), +2.9% vs prior same-basis mark. Deficit throughout (−6.5 Mt 2027, widening); linkage talks are the live driver. Desk view: bullish structurally, but the mark is a July monthly average, not a live level.
Other — NZU 54.77 (2026-08-13, NZU secondary spot, close observation), −2.2% vs prior close; quarterly auction Tuesday 8 September, first under Xpansiv CBL. ACCU 37.5 (2026-05-15, CER QCMR, March quarter 2026). No fresh marks in the gap for either.
The desk's marks for RGGI and California-Quebec (CCA) change basis with this note.
What changed. Until today both instruments were marked off the most recent auction clearing price - the RGGI quarterly auction and the WCI joint auction. From today they are marked off the front-month futures settlement, stated as such on every appearance, with the contract month named.
Why. An auction print is a real, citable transaction price, and nothing carrying one was wrong. The problem is not accuracy, it is shelf life: auctions clear quarterly, so an auction print is an excellent mark in the week it prints and a progressively worse one for the three months until the next. Both ends of that are on this page today. The CCA mark is the 19 August joint auction, results published 26 August, and it sits close to where the front month is trading - an auction print at its freshest. The RGGI mark is Auction 72 of 3 June, a full quarter back, and the traded market has moved well above it. Same basis, same desk, three months apart. Marking off the front month is how the desk stops arguing views off whichever point in that cycle it happens to be standing on.
What it means for reading the note. Marks will move more often and by smaller amounts, because a front-month future reprices daily where an auction reprices quarterly. A change in the mark is no longer evidence that an auction has happened. Each mark states what it is and which contract month it is, and the auction prints remain in the note - they are still the primary print, and when an auction is the news it is the auction that leads.