Correction issued 31 August 2026 CARB allowance removal, 2027-2030: this morning's note said the amended Table 6-2 removes 117.7 Mt across 2027-2030, and gave the 2027 pre-amendment budget as 240. The removal is 118.3 Mt and the 2027 base is 240.6. (Full statement below.) · All corrections
EU ETS (EUA) Mark: 82.39, 31 August 2026, latest EEX auction clearing price (primary print).
What moved: today's clearing is the only citable EUA level on our tape. The tape carries no same-basis prior print, so we publish no percentage change and no direction word.
Why: nothing dated and verified today explains an EUA move, and we will not manufacture one from an absent anchor.
Desk view: constructive on structure, not on a day. Our forward rows run supply 1101.4 against demand 987.7 in 2027, a +113.7 surplus that narrows and flips to deficit in 2029 under the Directive (EU) 2023/959 LRF. COM(2026) 616 remains a proposal-stage instrument and does not re-row anything yet.
UK ETS (UKA) Mark: 58.68, July 2026, official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table, monthly-final observation, +2.9% versus the prior same-basis mark.
What moved: nothing today. The two endpoints of that +2.9% are 31 days apart; this is a month-on-month average, not a session.
Why: a monthly average has no single catalyst we can source, so we assert none. The structural driver behind the rows is the maritime extension in force 1 July 2026 (SI 2026/392).
Desk view: rows show deficit in every forward year, deepening from -6.5 to -20.6. No fresh mark, so no tactical view.
California-Quebec (CCA) Marks: 32.48, August 2026 joint auction, current-vintage settlement price (primary); and 32.8, 28 August 2026, front-month Sep26 futures settlement, +0.2% same-basis.
What moved: the futures move is inside one percent, so no cause is asserted. The auction is the story.
Why: the sale was fully subscribed at USD 32.48, up 12.7% from May's USD 28.81 and the strongest clearing since November 2024, with a 1.31 cover ratio. CARB resubmitted to OAL on 20 August, requested a 1 September effective date, and OAL plans to complete review on or before that date.
Desk view: our rows supersede tomorrow on the 118.3 Mt removal across 2027 to 2030. That removal is withdrawn from budgets; the Manufacturing Decarbonization Incentive is a separate, current-vintage pool. Tomorrow is a status check, not a formality.
Washington (WCA) Mark: 64.56, June 2026, current-vintage settlement (Auction 14). No fresh mark.
What moved: nothing citable.
Why: no auction, no APCR sale, no rule this session.
Desk view: deficit throughout on an assumed statutory slope; Ecology's post-2026 budget rule, due 1 October 2026, re-rows this market.
RGGI (RGA) Marks: 35.0, 3 June 2026, Auction 72 clearing (primary); and 40.72, 28 August 2026, front-month Sep26 futures settlement, -2.4% same-basis. The tradeable tape sits well above the June clearing; both are printed here deliberately.
What moved: front-month futures fell 2.4% on 28 August.
Why: we cannot source a dated catalyst for that session. The standing August framing, per Carbon Pulse on 4 August, was added supply into the Q3 auction and uncertainty over further affordability measures; Potomac's Q2 2026 supply and demand report landed 21 August.
Desk view: eleven states participate, Virginia included since 1 July; the cap ladder we carry is ten-state until DEQ's rule takes effect 1 January 2027. Virginia's 11.48 million H2 budget splits across the 9 September and 2 December auctions, with 1.148 million CCR allowances originated for the remainder of 2026; per-auction volume comes from the notice, not the half-year budget.
NZ ETS (NZU) Mark: 54.77, 13 August 2026, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks), -2.2% versus prior close, endpoints 21 days apart.
What moved: nothing today; the mark is 18 days old and the change is not a session move.
Why: no dated catalyst sourced.
Desk view: the mark sits below the NZD 71 hard auction floor for 2026, consistent with our zero-clearing assumption. From September 2026 CBL Markets, an Xpansiv company, operates the auctions; next sale Tuesday 8 September.
Australia (ACCU) Mark: 37.5, 15 May 2026, generic ACCU spot (CER QCMR, March quarter 2026). No fresh mark; the citable series is quarterly.
What moved: nothing citable.
Why: not applicable.
Desk view: deficit throughout on the legislated 4.9% baseline decline.
Alberta TIER Mark: 95.0, TIER fund price for 2026, per the 15 May 2026 Implementation Agreement schedule. Our tape labels this print 2025-05, which conflicts with the 2026 agreement date; flagged as an open series defect until retagged.
What moved: nothing.
Why: administered price, no market session.
Desk view: the live item is the credit price floor regulation Alberta must enact by 31 December 2026, because clause 1.2.3.4 grandfathers pre-enactment credits.
BC LCFS Mark: 135.8, July 2026, monthly average credit transfer price.
What moved: nothing today; monthly basis.
Why: no dated catalyst.
Desk view: neutral pending the next monthly.
Fuels (CA LCFS, RINs) Mark: CA LCFS credit 77.19, week of 17 August 2026, CARB weekly volume-weighted average transfer price, range 68.50 to 82.50. D4 at 2.41 and D6 at 2.37, both 4 June 2026, are historic prints and say nothing about today.
What moved: no fresh LCFS weekly reached the desk today.
Why: the report is weekly; the next is due tomorrow.
Desk view: the 2026Q1 balance, published 31 July, showed credits 6.93M against deficits 9.77M with a 36.86M cumulative bank, a quarter now 153 days old.
Tomorrow, 1 September: CARB's LCFS weekly credit transfer report, and CARB's requested effective date for the cap-and-invest amendments. Open IOUs: the LCFS print, the OAL outcome, the ten-state CAMPD demand anchor. Then COT on 4 September, NZ auction 8 September, RGGI Auction 73 on 9 September.
this morning's note said the amended Table 6-2 removes 117.7 Mt across 2027-2030, and gave the 2027 pre-amendment budget as 240. The removal is 118.3 Mt and the 2027 base is 240.6. The direction, the mechanism and the desk's view are unchanged - the cut is very slightly larger than we stated. CARB's own adopted summary describes it as the 'removal of 118 million allowances'.
How it happened is worth stating, because reading the primary did not prevent it. CARB's Final Regulation Order renders the 2027 cell as '240' in both its PDF and its Word version: the struck old figure and the inserted new one sit adjacent and the decimal is lost, the same way 2026 renders '254' where the codified regulation reads 254.0. The codified table reads 240.6, the pre-amendment schedule steps down by a uniform ~13.35 Mt a year - which 240.0 breaks and 240.6 fits - and our own joint California-Quebec supply row reconciles against Quebec's Decret 1126-2017 to the cent for 2028, 2029 and 2030 and requires 240.6 for 2027.
One consequence for readers following the offset debate: the removal is now exactly the same size as the 118.3 million current-vintage allowances created for the Manufacturing Decarbonization Incentive. They remain two different pools, and the thing that distinguishes them is vintage - the removal comes out of future-vintage budgets, the incentive allowances are created with a current vintage - not their size, which is now identical and settles nothing either way.