Correction issued 2026-09-01 RGGI demand base: our RGGI demand rows re-anchor from a flagged ~60M-short-ton assumption to the market monitor's measured 82.0M short tons of covered 2024 emissions, corroborated independently by EPA data at 1.1%. (full statement below.) · All corrections
Correction (rides this note): our RGGI demand rows re-anchor from a flagged ~60M short-ton assumption, carried since 19 August with the verification pull listed as owed, to the market monitor's observed 82.0M short tons of covered 2024 emissions, corroborated independently by EPA unit-level data at 82.9M, a 1.1% spread. The forward balance flips from surplus-narrowing to deficit-from-2027. That was our gap to close, and this is us closing it.
RGGI (RGA). Mark: 35.0 (2026-06-03, Auction 72 clearing price, primary); 40.48 (2026-09-01, front-month futures settlement Sep26, RGGI V26, settlement observation), -0.5% versus prior same-basis mark. The clearing print and the futures observation sit apart; both are stated because the trade is against the tape, not the auction.
What moved: Not price. The demand base moved: forward rows now read 79.6/78.8/78.0/77.2 short tons against a ten-state cap of 69.8M in 2027 declining about 8.5M/yr, giving -9.8M in 2027 deepening to -32.9M by 2030.
Why: The observed count replaced an assumption that matched no measured population. Scope discipline: eleven states participate and Virginia rejoined on 1 July 2026, but the Third Program Review cap volumes cover ten states and exclude Virginia's budget, which aligns by January 1, 2027. Our 2029 and 2030 cap rows also carry a small desk adjustment above the statute's own derived values, named here as ours.
Desk view: Constructive, not a squeeze. The private bank last observed near 67M short tons (July 2025, market monitor) covers deficits of this size for years, so drawdown pace is the trade.
EU ETS (EUA). Mark: 81.3 (2026-09-01, latest EEX auction clearing price). No citable secondary mark on our tape.
What moved: A common-platform Tuesday sale cleared and printed; nothing in the day requires a cause beyond scheduled supply.
Why: Rows unchanged, set by the Directive (EU) 2023/959 LRF; COM(2026) 616 remains a proposal, not law.
Desk view: Surplus of +113.7 in 2027 narrowing to a 2029 deficit; structurally tightening, patiently.
UK ETS (UKA). Mark: 58.68 (July 2026 official monthly average, Dec futures, CCM table); 58.68 (2026-09-01, front-month Sep26 settlement observation), -0.3% versus prior same-basis mark. The futures settle and the official monthly coincide at 58.68 today; they are separate bases stated together.
What moved: Demand was promoted from estimate to observation on the UK ETS Registry compliance report, rows falling to 75.0/72.8/70.6/68.5 and the balance to -2.7 in 2027, deepening to about -17 thereafter.
Why: The registry is the regulator's own count of the covered population. Rows sit under SI 2020/1265 Table B as amended by SI 2026/392.
Desk view: UKA trades 17.3% below EUA at Sep26 in common currency, narrowing to 14.6% by Dec28; we stay long that convergence rather than the outright.
California-Quebec (CCA). Mark: 32.48 (August 2026 joint auction, current-vintage settlement); 33.16 (2026-09-01, front-month Sep26 CCA V26 settlement observation), +0.1% versus prior same-basis mark.
What moved: The amended budget table took effect today, retiring the supply tripwire we had armed.
Why: CARB's cap-and-invest updates carry an effective date of September 1, 2026, removing 118.3 Mt from 2027-2030 budgets. Separately, a Manufacturing Decarbonization Incentive account is created current-vintage; withdrawn from future budgets is not the same act as the MDI pool, and equal size proves nothing.
Desk view: Deficit throughout, -27.0 in 2027 to -84.2 in 2030; constructive, with rows biased high on supply because offset retirements are unmodelled.
Washington (WCA). Mark: 64.56 (2026-06, current-vintage settlement, Auction 14). No fresh mark.
What moved: Nothing on our tape.
Why: No sale since June.
Desk view: Deficit throughout on the statutory slope; Ecology's 1 October budget rule is the armed supersede.
NZ ETS (NZU). Mark: 54.77 (2026-08-13, secondary spot scrape of broker marks), -2.2%, and that change spans 21 days, not a session. The scrape carries a standing data-quality flag.
What moved: No fresh mark since 13 August.
Why: Quarterly cadence and no auction print.
Desk view: Deficit near -33 annually on the zero-clearing assumption; 8 September is its test.
Australia (ACCU). Mark: 37.5 (2026-05-15, generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR March quarter). No fresh mark.
What moved / Why: Nothing citable; the FY25-26 baseline total remains our own figure pending CER publication.
Desk view: Deficit deepening on the 4.9%/yr decline; constructive, thinly evidenced.
Alberta TIER. Mark: 95.0 (tape-dated 2025-05, TIER fund price for 2026 per the 15 May 2026 Implementation Agreement schedule; that date label is an open store flag).
What moved: Nothing.
Why: Schedule fixed to 2040.
Desk view: The live item is Alberta enacting the credit floor by 31 December 2026, which fixes the grandfathering cutoff.
BC LCFS. Mark: 135.8 (2026-07, monthly average credit transfer price).
What moved / Why: Monthly cadence, no new print.
Desk view: Hold; no forward row.
Fuels (CA LCFS, RINs). Marks: CA LCFS credit 77.19 (2026-08-17, CARB weekly volume-weighted average, range 68.50-82.50). RINs: D4 2.0639, D6 2.2615, D5 2.3402, D3 2.582, all 2026-07-20 EPA EDAP, 43 days stale and historic, not current levels.
What moved: CARB's weekly report was due today; our tape still ends at the week of 17 August, and we do not assert the release failed to land, since our fetch lane has served stale CARB pages before. Unverified from this vantage tonight.
Why: Cadence, not direction. 2026Q1 ran 6.93M credits against 9.77M deficits, bank 36.86M, published 31 July.
Desk view: Bank drawing down; renewable-diesel margin is the credit-supply variable and we have no licensed RIN price to run it.
What to watch. Wednesday 2 September carries no dated event on our calendar, and Wednesday is not a common-platform auction day. Ahead: CFTC COT Friday 4 September, the NZ quarterly auction Tuesday 8 September, the first run by CBL Markets, an Xpansiv company, plus CARB's weekly LCFS report that day, then RGGI Auction 73 on Wednesday 9 September with 1.148 million CCR allowances supplied by Virginia. Auction 73 is the first market read on the new arithmetic; whether the CCR is touched is the evidence against our deficit-now framing. Open IOU: the 2025 bank update from the next Monitor report.
The desk's RGGI demand rows change base with this note, and the change is large enough - about 35% - that it deserves a plain account.
What the old base was. From 19 August the demand rows ran off ~60 million short tons, described in our own records from the day it was written as an assumption pending verification: a level read from a dashboard, flagged as an estimate, with the exact registry pull listed as owed. It was a placeholder that carried a placeholder's label. What it was not was a measured figure.
What the pull found. The awaited data has now landed twice over, by two independent routes. The market monitor's annual report - the compliance regime's own accounting - puts 2024 covered CO2 emissions across the ten RGGI states at 82.0 million short tons. EPA's unit-level emissions data for the same ten states, read under this desk's membership allowlist with every one of its 645 units accounted for, gives 82.9 million short tons - the two routes agree to 1.1%. The rows now anchor on the monitor's 82.0, because it counts covered sources: the same population the cap itself is written against. No population was found for which the old ~60M was the right 2024 ten-state figure.
What changes in the read. Demand near 80 million short tons against a 2027 cap of 69.8 million inverts the RGGI balance: instead of a surplus narrowing toward a 2029 flip, the rows now show a deficit from 2027 - roughly 10 million short tons in the first year, deepening as the cap declines toward 44.3 million by 2030. That is a change in the structural story, not a squeeze call: the market holds a private allowance bank last observed near 67 million short tons (July 2025, market monitor), which covers deficits of this size for years. The repricing question RGGI now poses is the pace of bank drawdown, not the arithmetic of any single compliance year.
What stays the same. The supply ladder is untouched - it was anchored to the Model Rule's own figures throughout. The mark and its basis are untouched. And the discipline that produced this correction is the one that will produce the next: every assumption in the forward rows carries its flag, and when a measurement lands, the desk moves to it and says so.