Correction issued 1 September 2026 UKA price basis: from today this desk marks UK ETS off the front-month UKA futures settlement, the same basis RGGI and California-Quebec moved to on 27 August. (full statement below.) · All corrections
California–Quebec (CCA). Mark: 33.14 (2026-08-31, front-month futures settlement (Sep26), CCA V26, settlement observation), +1.0% vs prior same-basis mark; primary print 32.48 (August 2026 joint auction, current-vintage settlement price).
What moved: The amended Cap-and-Invest regulation takes effect today. CARB adopted the updates on 29 May 2026, clearing the way for the amended program to take effect on September 1, 2026 ; it removes approximately 118 million allowances from 2027–2030 budgets, setting an 11% annual cap decline for the rest of this decade and an average 7% decline over 2031–2045 .
Why: Our forward rows move today to amended California Table 6-2 budgets plus the unchanged Québec caps of Décret 1126-2017: joint supply 273.4/247.4/224.2/202.9 against demand 300.4/295.9/291.5/287.1, a deficit of 27.0 Mt in 2027 deepening to 84.2 Mt by 2030. Separately, a Manufacturing Decarbonization Incentive account is created current-vintage — a distinct mechanism, not a redirection of the removed allowances.
Desk view: Bullish CCA on the curve. Judgment: the removal is future-vintage, so front V26 gains mostly by expectation, not by scarcity; relaxed cap adjustment factors ease refinery pressure through 2030 and cap the near-term squeeze.
Washington (WCA). Mark: 64.56 (2026-06, current-vintage settlement, Auction #14) — no fresher citable print on our tape.
What moved: Nothing new overnight.
Why: Ecology's post-2026 budget rule (due 1 October 2026) has not issued, so our rows hold the statutory −4.75M/yr slope: deficit 12.4 Mt in 2027 widening to 24.2 Mt by 2030.
Desk view: Constructive but illiquid; the October rule, not the tape, is the repricer.
RGGI (RGA). Mark: 40.7 (2026-08-31, front-month futures settlement (Sep26), RGGI V26, settlement observation), −0.0%; primary print 35.0 (2026-06-03, Auction 72 clearing price).
What moved: No fresh development; Auction 73 is next Wednesday, 9 September, with 1.148M CCR allowances available and Virginia standard allowances beginning.
Why: Eleven states participate following Virginia's 1 July 2026 return, but our ten-state cap ladder (69.8M in 2027, −8.5M/yr) excludes Virginia pending DEQ's 1 January 2027 rule. Balance +10.4 Mt 2027, flipping to deficit in 2029.
Desk view: Mildly bullish into the sale; a ~67M private bank (July 2025) caps upside.
Alberta TIER. Mark: 95.0 (2025-05, TIER fund price for 2026, per the 15 May 2026 Implementation Agreement schedule).
What moved: Nothing new. Standing: the schedule runs $100 for 2027–2029 and $115 in 2030, with Alberta to enact the credit price floor regulation by 31 December 2026.
Desk view: Neutral spot, bullish deferred; grandfathering of pre-enactment credits makes the enactment date economically live now.
Marks: CA LCFS 77.19 (2026-08-17, CARB weekly volume-weighted average credit transfer price, range 68.50–82.50); BC LCFS 135.8 (2026-07, monthly average credit transfer price). CFR carries no citable mark on our tape. Today's CARB weekly report is due.
What moved: EPA is exempting 1.76 billion RINs for 29 small refineries, will propose reallocating 100% of the difference between projected and actual exempted 2025 volumes into 2026–2027 RVOs before end-October, and will issue a direct final rule extending the 2025 RVO compliance date by 30 days to October 1, 2026 .
Why: Our D4/D6 prints are 89 days old and not current marks. Judgment: exempted volume without immediate reallocation is bearish RIN value, which squeezes renewable-diesel margins — the decision variable behind the largest LCFS credit-generation category.
Desk view: Neutral-to-bullish CA LCFS. Weaker RD economics slow credit generation against a bank last observed at 36.86M MT with 2026Q1 net −2.84M MT (quarter published 31 July).
No citable REC price on our tape; per-class figures only, and no fresh price development. Our monitors flag PJM OATT, Operating Agreement and RAA document updates today and nothing in them yet shown to touch REC supply — substance unconfirmed (unverified). Standing: 15 RPS states tracked; PJM dropped an advanced-nuclear project from its study cycle (Utility Dive, 31 August), marginally supportive of Tier 1 demand late-decade.
SBTi: no news overnight. As context, the Corporate Net-Zero Standard v2.0 was published 11 June 2026; validations open 1 February 2027 and it becomes mandatory 1 February 2028. Removals: our monitors flag a large change to Puro Standard General Rules v4.4 overnight; contents not yet parsed (unverified). Article 6/GCC: nothing fresh. Read: neutral — demand-side clarity is a 2027 event.
EU ETS (EUA). Mark: 81.3 (2026-09-01, latest EEX auction clearing price). Rows: supply 1101.4 against demand 987.7 in 2027, surplus narrowing to deficit by 2029 under Directive (EU) 2023/959; COM(2026) 616 remains a proposal. Read: constructive.
UK ETS (UKA). Mark: 58.84 (2026-08-31, front-month futures settlement (Sep26)); primary 58.68 (July 2026 official monthly average, Dec futures). Sep26 sits 16.8% below EUA in EUR. Deficit throughout on SI 2020/1265 Table B as amended. Read: bullish on convergence.
Other. NZU 54.77 (2026-08-13 secondary spot scrape, −2.2%) ahead of the 8 September quarterly auction, first under Xpansiv CBL. ACCU 37.5 (2026-05-15, CER QCMR March quarter); Crikey reports the Climate Change Authority warning on reliance on short-dated credits (1 September) — judgment: mildly supportive of removals-type ACCUs.
from today this desk marks UK ETS off the front-month UKA futures settlement, the same basis RGGI and California-Quebec moved to on 27 August. The official gov.uk monthly average - our UKA mark until now - stays on every surface as the primary print beside the futures mark, the same pairing those markets carry.
Nothing published before today was wrong: the monthly average is an official settlement statistic and remains one. But a monthly average describes a month, and a month-on-month change quoted against it could not be checked by a reader against anything published daily. The front-month settlement gives the UKA line a daily, same-basis series - the delta becomes a verifiable number rather than an assertion.
The basis line names the instrument: front-month futures settlement with its contract month, priced in sterling. Where the two bases sit side by side they are labelled - a settlement mark and an official monthly average are different facts about the same market, and the desk carries both.