Correction issued 2026-09-02 EUA price basis: from today this desk marks EU ETS off the front-month EUA futures settlement, completing the pairing RGGI, California-Quebec and UK ETS already carry: a daily futures settlement as the mark, with the EEX auction clearing price kept... (full statement below.) · All corrections
AS OF 2 September 2026, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks do NOT share one settlement date - 2026-09-01 for EU ETS (EUA)/UK ETS (UKA), 2026-09-02 for California-Quebec (CCA)/RGGI (RGA); EU ETS (EUA)/UK ETS (UKA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
California-Quebec (CCA), USD. Mark 33.16 (2026-09-01, front-month futures settlement (Sep26), CCA V26, settlement observation), +0.1% vs prior same-basis mark; carried prior-session settle, not today's. Primary print 32.48 (August 2026 joint auction, current-vintage settlement price).
What moved: The amended 17 CCR 95841 Table 6-2 took effect 1 September, removing 118.3 Mt from the 2027-2030 budgets (amended path 225.6/200.8/178.8/158.8).
Why: Our forward rows now carry joint supply 273.4/247.4/224.2/202.9 against demand 300.4/295.9/291.5/287.1, short in every year and deepening to -84.2 by 2030. That is budget minus emissions and excludes the private bank, the APCR tranches and the price ceiling, so read it as a supply path rather than a scarcity call. The same test is applied to RGGI and the EU below. Separately, and not the same mechanism, a Manufacturing Decarbonization Incentive account is created with its own 2028-2035 allocation window; removed-from-budget is not retired.
Desk view: Bullish V26 on the forward balance, but the front is anchored by an August clearing below the futures mark. Judgment: lean long on dips, not chase.
Washington (WCA), USD. Primary print 64.56 (2026-06, current-vintage settlement, Auction #14), a June print carried as a last print, not a current mark. A front-month futures mark exists and publishes tomorrow with the correction that explains the basis change.
What moved: Washington's Auction #15 is held today, 2 September; its settlement price is certified and citable on 9 September, not today (Ecology, 2026 Summary of Expected Dates).
Why: Rows sit on an assumed -4.75M/yr slope, which is the desk's own figure pending Ecology's post-2026 budget rule; RCW 70A.65 sets emission limits, not an allowance path. Adoption is estimated 23 September and effect 24 October, at which point these rows are replaced. The CA-Quebec linkage track remains the larger structural repricer and is not modelled here.
Desk view: Neutral-to-bullish. The rows are short throughout (-12.4 to -24.2), which argues higher, but that is budget minus emissions and excludes the allowance bank, the reserve tranches and the price ceiling, so read it as a supply path rather than scarcity. Adoption is estimated 23 September, three weeks out, and adoption is what fixes the numbers; the 24 October effective date is seven weeks out.
RGGI (RGA), USD. Mark 40.48 (2026-09-01, front-month futures settlement (Sep26), RGGI V26, settlement observation), -0.5% vs prior same-basis mark; carried prior-session settle. Primary print 35.0 (2026-06-03, Auction 72 clearing price).
What moved: No fresh RGGI news overnight. Standing catalyst: EPA's final rule repealing all power-sector GHG standards has sat at OMB since 14 May 2026, now past the standard 90-day EO 12866 review window. That window is a default rather than a deadline, extendable by the OMB Director or at the agency's request, so its passing is not itself an event. No Federal Register publication is recorded here.
Why: Ten-state cap rows (69.8M in 2027, declining an average 8.5M/yr through 2033) run short from 2027, deepening to -32.9. Both the supply ladder and the demand anchor exclude Virginia, whose 2027-onward budget awaits DEQ's rule effective 1 January 2027, so that shortfall is an ex-Virginia figure on both sides and adding Virginia raises both. Against it sits a private allowance bank last observed near 67 million short tons (July 2025, market monitor), which covers shortfalls of this size for years, so drawdown pace is the trade rather than any single compliance year. Eleven states participate, and Virginia's supply enters at Auction 73 on 9 September (Wednesday) in two parts, which are not the same instrument: 11.48 million second-half 2026 budget allowances (a 22.96 million full-year basis, split across Auction 73 and December) and 1.148 million Cost Containment Reserve allowances, which are released only if the CCR trigger price is reached. The load-bearing variable is bank drawdown pace, not any single year.
Desk view: Bullish structurally; a federal repeal is a state-program non-event on obligation but a sentiment drag. Judgment: buy weakness into 9 September, noting futures print materially above the June clearing.
Alberta TIER, CAD. Primary print 95.0 (2025-05, TIER fund price for 2026, per the 15 May 2026 Implementation Agreement schedule). No citable current secondary mark.
What moved: Nothing new. Standing: the schedule sets $100 for 2027-2029 and a credit price floor from 2030, with Alberta to enact the floor regulation by 31 December 2026.
Desk view: Bullish 2027+ EPC credits; the enactment date fixes the grandfathering cutoff for pre-enactment credits, which is economically live now.
CA LCFS credit 79.02 USD (2026-08-24, CARB weekly volume-weighted average transfer price, range 67.00-84.00). BC LCFS 135.8 CAD (2026-07, monthly average credit transfer price). CFR has no citable current mark here. RIN prints on our tape are 44 days old and are not evidence of today's level.
What moved: No new CARB weekly print since 24 August; the next weekly report is due 8 September.
Why: 2026Q1 (published 31 July) showed credits 6.93M vs deficits 9.77M, bank 36.86M MT, a drawing bank. On crude: diesel reprices with crude while feedstock does not follow it down, so softer crude COMPRESSES the renewable-diesel margin over feedstock, and producers then need more LCFS and RIN value to clear the same volumes. Softer crude is therefore supportive for credits, not an offset against them. This corrects the reading published in this note's first edition; it is also the sign convention the desk's own flow-channel model runs on.
Desk view: Neutral-to-constructive CA LCFS into the 8 September print. The deficit quarters and a compressing RD margin point the same way; the leg we cannot price today is the RIN side.
No new RPS development overnight. Our tracked set covers 15 state RPS programmes; no traded price is on our tape for California PCC categories, Northeast Class I/Tier 1, or SRECs, and we do not publish a blended REC average because these classes satisfy different obligations.
SBTi: no change overnight. As context, Corporate Net-Zero Standard V2.0 was published 11 June 2026; explanatory guidance and a Renewal Policy are expected in Q4 2026, with validation against V2.0 opening 1 February 2027. Read: neutral near-term for removals demand, the demand switch is a 2027 event.
Removals/Puro: our monitors flag a document-level change to the Puro Standard General Rules; the published version is v4.4, approved 7 May 2026. Too large for a word-level diff, treated as unconfirmed until the changelog is read.
Article 6/GCC: a report of a UK-backed RISE forest carbon project in the Solomon Islands (2 September) rests on a single aggregator source and is held here until a primary (FCDO or the Solomon Islands government) is found. Read: neutral, sovereign-backed supply, no near-term price impact.
EU ETS (EUA), EUR. Correction, out loud: from today this desk marks EU ETS off the front-month futures settlement, with the EEX auction clearing kept beside it as the primary print. Mark 82.82 (2026-09-01, front-month futures settlement (Sep26), settlement observation), a carried prior-session settle; primary print 82.48 (2026-09-02, latest EEX auction clearing price).
Why: Rows run supply 1101.4/1015.4/929.4/843.4 against demand 987.7/972.9/958.3/943.9 under Directive (EU) 2023/959, a surplus narrowing and turning negative in 2029. Read it pre-MSR: the Market Stability Reserve withdraws from auction volumes before the market sees them, taking 24% of the total number of allowances in circulation above the upper threshold, and since 2024 taking the excess over 833 million where circulation sits between 833 and 1,096 million. The rows also decrement by a constant 86.0 a year, so they carry the 4.3% linear reduction factor through the step to 4.4% that applies from 2028, and 2028 onward is therefore slightly overstated. COM(2026) 616 remains a proposal.
Desk view: Constructive on the curve, neutral on the front.
UK ETS (UKA), GBP. Mark 58.68 (2026-09-01, front-month futures settlement (Sep26), settlement observation), -0.3%, carried prior-session settle; primary print 58.68 (July 2026 official monthly average, Dec futures, CCM table, Open Government Licence v3.0). The two are equal to the cent today and that is a coincidence of two different bases, not one number copied: the gov.uk monthly series ran 50.83, 39.46, 46.82, 52.41, 57.02 and then 58.68 across its own prints, while the futures settle moved 58.84 to 58.68 on 1 September. Two collectors, two series, crossing today. Rows are short in every year under SI 2020/1265 as amended by SI 2026/392 (maritime extension, in force 1 July 2026); that is budget minus emissions and carries no bank or reserve, so it is a supply path, not a scarcity call. The UKA-EUA differential is -17.3% at Sep26, narrowing to -14.6% by Dec28, converted at the ECB EUR/GBP reference rate for 2026-08-31. The FX leg is load-bearing: unconverted, the raw ratio is about -29%, so this is a statement about two currencies as much as two markets. Read: bullish the convergence, neutral outright.
Other: NZU 54.77 NZD (2026-08-13, secondary spot, close observation), -2.2%, a 20-day-old print carried as a last print rather than a mark; the quarterly auction on 8 September is the first under Xpansiv CBL and tests our zero-clearing assumption below the NZD 71 floor. ACCU primary print 37.5 AUD (2026-05-15, CER QCMR March quarter), a quarterly print roughly three and a half months old, carried as a last print, not a mark.
The desk's mark for EU ETS (EUA) changes basis with this note.
What changed. Until today the EUA mark was the latest EEX auction clearing price. From today it is the front-month futures settlement, stated as such on every appearance with the contract month named, and the EEX auction clearing stays on every surface as the primary print beside it - the same pairing RGGI, California-Quebec and UK ETS carry.
Why. An auction clearing price and a futures settlement are different instruments by design: the auction is a primary issuance event and the futures settle is the traded market's daily close. Both are real, citable exchange prices, and nothing published on the auction basis was wrong - EEX auctions clear most weekdays, so the EUA print never had the shelf-life problem the quarterly RGGI print had. What the change buys is one basis across the complex: every compliance market on this tape now marks off the instrument a compliance buyer transacts against, and the auction remains the primary print it always was. It also retires the last scraped proxy from the desk's internal cross-checks - a mirror series was standing in for a settlement the desk could not previously reach, and it can reach the settlement itself now.
What it means for reading the note. The mark and the primary print will usually sit close together and will sometimes disagree by more than a percent - that is basis between an auction and the secondary market, not an error, and the desk no longer treats it as one. Each mark states what it is and which contract month it is; when an auction is the news, the auction leads.