AS OF 4 September 2026, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are today's close, marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
California-Quebec (CCA) — Mark: USD 33.20 (2026-09-04, most liquid futures settlement, Dec26 CCA V26, settlement observation), −0.4% vs prior same-basis mark. Primary print: USD 32.48 (August 2026 joint auction, current-vintage settlement price).
What moved: Nothing new overnight; the amended 17 CCR 95841 Table 6-2 took effect 1 September, removing 118.3 Mt from the 2027–2030 budgets.
Why: Our forward rows now run supply 273.4/247.4/224.2/202.9 Mt against demand 300.4/295.9/291.5/287.1 Mt — deficit in every year, deepening to −84.2 Mt by 2030. Separately, a Manufacturing Decarbonization Incentive account is created with its own 2028–2035 allocation window; withdrawn from auction and allocation is not the same as retired.
Desk view: Judgment — constructive on 2027+ structure, neutral front-month. These rows are budget minus emissions and carry no bank or reserve, so this is a supply path, not a scarcity call.
Washington (WCA) — Mark: USD 53.24 (2026-09-04, most liquid futures settlement, Dec26 WCA V26), +0.7%. Primary print: USD 64.56 (2026-06, current-vintage settlement, Auction #14).
What moved: Auction #15 was held 2 September; certification and the settlement price come 9 September (Ecology publication 26-14-062).
Why: Rows run deficit −12.4 to −24.2 Mt on the current statutory slope; Ecology's WAC 173-446 budget rulemaking (adoption estimated 23 September) replaces them.
Desk view: Judgment — neutral into the 9 September print. The APCR (26-14-072) and the first-ever ECR sale on 16 September (26-14-068) are contingent supply that has not released; no bank figure is held here.
RGGI (RGA) — Mark: USD 39.51 (2026-09-04, most liquid futures settlement, Dec26 RGGI V26), −1.2%. Primary print: USD 35.00 (2026-06-03, Auction 72 clearing price).
What moved: Our demand base was promoted to observed 82.0M short tons of covered 2024 emissions (Potomac Economics), lifting the demand rows ~34% and flipping the balance to −9.8 Mt in 2027, deepening to −32.9 Mt by 2030.
Why: Ten-state Third Program Review volumes (Virginia participates from 1 July 2026 but sits outside the cap basis until DEQ's rule takes effect 1 January 2027).
Desk view: Judgment — constructive; the ~67M private bank (July 2025, Potomac) is load-bearing and drawdown pace is the trade. Auction 73 lands 9 September.
Alberta TIER — Mark: CAD 95.00 (2026-05, headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim at s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement, 15 May 2026). No citable futures mark on our tape.
What moved: Nothing new; standing context is the May agreement schedule — CAD 100 for 2027–2029, CAD 115 in 2030, rising to CAD 140 in 2040.
Why: The credit price floor (s.1.2.3.5) runs CAD 60 in 2030 to CAD 110 in 2040, with Alberta to enact by 31 December 2026; clause 1.2.3.4 grandfathers credits generated before enactment.
Desk view: Judgment — the enactment date, not 2030, is the live variable for vintage-differentiated credit value.
Mark: CA LCFS credit USD 79.02 (2026-08-24, CARB weekly volume-weighted average credit transfer price, week of 2026-08-24, range USD 67.00–84.00). BC LCFS CAD 135.80 (2026-07, monthly average credit transfer price). No citable CFR credit mark on our tape. D4 RIN USD 2.0639 (2026-07-20, EPA EMTS) is a historic print, not a current level.
What moved: Our monitors flag OilPrice.com reporting WTI back above USD 91 on a returning war premium.
Why: Firmer crude reprices diesel up while feedstock does not follow it up, so the renewable-diesel margin widens, more RD is generated and credit supply rises.
Desk view: Judgment — flow bearish against a structurally tightening curve (2026Q1: credits 6.93M MT vs deficits 9.77M MT, net −2.84M MT, bank 36.86M MT). Weighting flow this session because the margin channel acts inside a quarter and the balance data is 157 days behind the quarter end. Next CARB weekly print: 8 September.
No citable REC price marks on our tape; three of twenty tracked rows carry a sourced traded price, and per-class figures are published rather than averaged. Nothing new in the last 24 hours.
Desk view: Judgment — California PCC categories neutral (bucket-1 scarcity is a siting story, not a news story); Northeast Class I/Tier 1 firm on load; SRECs class-specific and untradeable off a blended view.
SBTi — no new development. As context, the Corporate Net-Zero Standard v2.0 published 11 June 2026; validations open 1 February 2027 and it becomes mandatory 1 February 2028.
Removals/CORCs — our monitors flag a change to the Puro Standard General Rules document. The published version is 4.4, approved 07 May 2026 . Judgment: neutral for CORC pricing; rules changes bind issuance timing, not near-term supply.
Article 6/GCC — nothing material overnight.
EU ETS — Primary print: EUR 83.61 (2026-09-04, latest EEX auction clearing price). Mark: EUR 84.18 (2026-09-04, Dec26 settlement), +0.8%.
Why: Rows show a pre-MSR flow balance of +113.7/+42.5/−28.9/−100.5 Mt, flipping to deficit in 2029; the MSR withdraws from auction volumes before the market sees them, so the near-term figure overstates what reaches traders. Higher TTF on Middle East tension supports coal-gas switching demand.
Desk view: Judgment — constructive.
UK ETS — Mark: GBP 59.73 (2026-09-04, Dec26 settlement), +0.4%; primary print GBP 58.68 (July 2026 official monthly average). UKA sits −17.2% to EUA in EUR at Dec26. Rows deficit throughout. Judgment: constructive; linkage remains a standing desk view, not a dated event.
Other — NZU last print NZD 54.77 (2026-08-13, secondary spot), −2.2%: past its cadence, a last print rather than a mark. The 8 September quarterly auction — first under Xpansiv CBL — tests the assumption that 2026 sales fail below the NZD 71 floor. ACCU last print AUD 37.50 (2026-05-15, CER QCMR March quarter) is administered-cadence, not a market mark.