AS OF 16 September 2026, 18:05, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the 2026-09-15 close (prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Standing caveat, applied to every section below: the desk's forward rows are budget minus emissions and carry no bank, reserve or ceiling, except RGGI where a monitored stock exists. Read them as supply paths, not scarcity calls.
EU ETS (EUA) Mark: EUR 85.61, 2026-09-15, most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), +0.1% vs prior same-basis mark; carried from the 2026-09-15 session, the same-day settlement file has not reached the tape. Primary print: EUR 83.69, 2026-09-16, latest EEX auction clearing.
What moved: Today's primary print is the fresh item; the futures line is a carried prior-session settle, not today's mark.
Why: The 2026-09-16 clearing sits about 2.2% under the carried 15 September settle, the ordinary auction-to-secondary concession rather than a repricing event.
Desk view: Constructive. Rows show surplus narrowing to deficit in 2029 under Directive (EU) 2023/959; COM(2026) 616 remains a proposal and changes nothing yet.
UK ETS (UKA) Mark: GBP 60.65, 2026-09-15, most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), -2.9% vs prior same-basis mark; carried session, as labelled.
What moved: Down 2.9% on the prior session, the largest single-name move on our tape.
Why: Unverified. Searching produced no dated wire for that session; the EU-UK linkage track remains the standing driver but is a carried desk view, not a re-verified cause, and the desk will not attach one it cannot source.
Desk view: Neutral-constructive against deficit rows under SI 2020/1265 as amended by SI 2026/392; the UKA/EUA differential is -17.2% at Dec26 narrowing to -14.6% at Dec28 (ECB reference rate, 2026-09-15).
California-Quebec (CCA) Mark: USD 31.67, 2026-09-15, most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), CCA V26, -2.8%; carried session. Primary print: USD 32.48, 2026-08-19, Auction 48 current-vintage settlement (28 days old).
What moved: Down 2.8%, leaving Dec26 about 2.5% below the last auction clearing.
Why: Unverified from this vantage; no dated catalyst found for the session. The discount to the August clearing is modest and reads as timing rather than a data question.
Desk view: Constructive structurally, flat tactically; the amended 17 CCR 95841 Table 6-2 removal of 118.3 Mt across 2027-2030 is in effect since 1 September and the rows deepen every year.
Washington (WCA) Mark: USD 43.50, 2026-09-15, most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), WCA V26, +0.9%; carried session. Primary print: USD 39.50, 2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement (Ecology publication 26-14-062).
What moved: The first Emissions Containment Reserve auction ever held ran today (Ecology publication 26-14-068). No result has reached the desk this evening; that is a tracked IOU.
Why: Dec26 stands roughly 10% above the 2 September clearing. Carbon Pulse reported on 18 July that Ecology's notice offers Vintage 2023 allowances at the sale, so the tranche is small and vintage-specific; the premium is forward tightening, not auction-day stress.
Desk view: Constructive. Carry the CA-Quebec-WA linkage track, signed by all three jurisdictions in June 2026, and note WAC 173-446 adoption is estimated 23 September, which re-rows post-2026 supply.
RGGI (RGA) Mark: USD 39.75, 2026-09-15, most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), RGGI V26, +1.9%; carried session. Primary print: USD 37.65, 2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing.
What moved: Up 1.9%, the only material gainer.
Why: No single 15 September catalyst verified. The backdrop is Auction 73's results release: 28,537,847 allowances sold at USD 37.65, comprising a 27,389,847 initial offering plus 1,148,000 CCR allowances, including 5,740,000 from Virginia, which resumed participation on 1 July 2026. Correction to our standing position: the desk previously held no per-auction split of Virginia's 11.48M H2 volume; RGGI's own release now states the Auction 73 figure. All CCR allowances sold, so none are available at Auction 74 on 2 December.
Desk view: Tight, and drawdown pace is the trade: 55M short tons in circulation at end Q2 2026, projected 45M at the CP6 deadline (Potomac special report, 21 August 2026). Virginia rejoined 1 July; the ten-state cap basis holds until DEQ's alignment on 1 January 2027.
NZ ETS (NZU) Last print: NZD 51.00, 2026-09-04, secondary spot scrape. 12 days old against a 7-day cadence: a last print, not a mark, and no delta is quoted.
What moved: Nothing on our tape.
Why: Carbon Pulse reported on 8 September that the quarterly auction again failed to clear, the seventh consecutive sale event without takers.
Desk view: The zero-auction-supply rows are the stress case and are labelled as such; cleared-at-floor is the alternative. MfE settings decisions due by 30 September re-row this.
Fuels and LCFS CA LCFS credit: USD 79.85, weekly volume-weighted average for the week of 2026-09-07, report posted today, range USD 65.00-85.00. Prior desk record: USD 79.02 for the week of 2026-08-24.
What moved: CARB's weekly print landed today, as previewed.
Why: Direction only. Brent at USD 109.51/bbl and Gulf Coast ULSD at USD 4.832/gal (EIA spot, 2026-09-09) describe a firm diesel leg, which widens the renewable-diesel margin and is bearish credit supply, against a bank drawing down (2026Q1: credits 6.93M MT versus deficits 9.77M MT, cumulative 36.86M MT).
Desk view: Balanced. RIN prints on our tape are 58 days old and are historic, not marks.
Other marks ACCU: AUD 37.50, 2026-05-15, CER QCMR March quarter 2026, 124 days old; no fresh mark, rows in deficit. Alberta TIER: CAD 95.00 administered headline for 2026, Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement s.1.2.1.1 (15 May 2026); an administered price, not a market mark. BC LCFS: CAD 135.80, monthly average credit transfer price for 2026-07; no fresh mark. RECs: not covered this edition. VCM: not covered this edition.
What to watch tomorrow, 17 September No dated auction or release sits on 17 September. The live item is Ecology's summary report for today's ECR Auction #1, which we owe you and will print when it lands. Then CFTC Commitments of Traders on 18 September, WAC 173-446 adoption estimated 23 September, WA APCR Auction #8 on 30 September (Ecology publication 26-14-072), and CARB's next weekly LCFS report on 22 September. Open IOUs carried: ECR Auction #1 result, and same-day settlement files for all five futures marks above.
Corrections & notes