AS OF 18 September 2026, 06:00, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the 2026-09-17 close (prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Our last note was Wednesday evening. Quoted deltas below are session-over-session versus the prior same-basis mark, not gap deltas: we have no marked level for the gap window on any instrument.
California-Quebec (CCA) — mark USD 32.08 (2026-09-17, Most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), CCA V26, settlement observation), +1.3% vs prior same-basis mark, carried from the 2026-09-17 session; primary print USD 32.48 (2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price).
What moved: Nothing instrument-specific in the gap window; the Dec26 contract sits roughly 1.2% under the August auction clearing.
Why: The amended 17 CCR 95841 Table 6-2 took effect 1 September, removing 118.3 Mt from 2027-2030 budgets; our forward rows are deficit throughout (-27.0 Mt 2027 deepening to -84.2 Mt 2030). Observed demand data runs only to 2023 — 2024-2026 are estimates.
Desk view: Judgment — constructive on the curve, neutral front; the tightening is in years the front contract does not yet price.
Washington (WCA) — mark USD 43.45 (2026-09-17, Most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), WCA V26, settlement observation), -0.1% vs prior same-basis mark, carried; primary print USD 39.50 (2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement).
What moved: The first-ever Emissions Containment Reserve sale was held Wednesday 16 September (Ecology publication 26-14-068); the Summary Report settlement figure has not reached our tape and we hold no clearing price for it — that result stays an open item into today.
Why: Dec26 futures stand about 10% above the 2 September auction clearing, a repricing of the linkage bid rather than a data question: the CA-Quebec-WA linkage agreement was signed by all three jurisdictions in June 2026, with a linked market possible from 2027. Ecology's WAC 173-446 budget rulemaking (adoption est. 23 Sept, effective est. 24 Oct) re-rows our post-2026 supply, which is currently the desk's own extension, not statute.
Desk view: Judgment — mildly bullish; two reserve events inside three weeks (ECR #1, APCR #8 on 30 September, Ecology publication 26-14-072) are contingent supply that has not yet released at scale.
RGGI (RGA) — mark USD 40.85 (2026-09-17, Most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), RGGI V26, settlement observation), +2.8% vs prior same-basis mark, carried; primary print USD 37.65 (2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price).
What moved: EPA's final rule repealing most provisions of the 2024 Carbon Pollution Standards published in the Federal Register on 17 September and is effective 16 November 2026 , accompanied by a supplemental proposal to rescind all remaining power-plant GHG standards, comments due on or before 2 November 2026 ; the final rule was signed 14 September by Administrator Lee Zeldin .
Why: Auction 73 brought Virginia's H2-2026 budget allowances (spread across the 9 September and 2 December sales) plus a 1,148,000 CCR tranche; 8.43 million ECR allowances were available for withholding and none were withheld . The 2026 ten-state CCR was fully depleted at Auction 71 and is a spent lever; the load-bearing number remains the monitor's 55M short tons in circulation at end-Q2 2026, projected 45M at the CP6 deadline.
Desk view: Judgment — bullish RGA into Q4. Removing the federal backstop lengthens coal dispatch life at the margin, which raises covered emissions into rows already deficit from 2027 (-9.8 Mt deepening to -32.9 Mt). Henry Hub at USD 2.97/MMBtu (2026-09-15, EIA spot) cuts the other way via gas-over-coal dispatch; we weight the structural ladder over the fuel-switch flow.
Alberta TIER — mark CAD 95.00 (2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement). No citable NGX futures mark: no reference contract can be determined.
What moved: No Alberta-specific development in the gap window.
Why: The May Agreement schedule holds CAD 100 for 2027-2029; the live item is enactment of the credit price floor regulation by 31 December 2026, which fixes the grandfathering cutoff for pre-enactment credits.
Desk view: Judgment — administered price, no directional view; the tradeable risk is the enactment date, not the headline.
CA LCFS — USD 79.85, covering week of 2026-09-07, report posted 2026-09-16, CARB weekly volume-weighted average credit transfer price (range USD 65.00-85.00). BC LCFS — CAD 135.80 (2026-07, monthly average credit transfer price). RIN prints on our tape are 60 days old and carry a nesting-inversion confirm flag; they support no statement about today's level.
What moved: CARB's weekly report posted inside the gap window — the one fresh regulator print we carry this morning.
Why: Brent at USD 130.80/bbl and Gulf Coast ULSD at USD 5.206/gal (both 2026-09-15, EIA spot) describe a firm diesel leg; mechanically, firmer diesel widens the renewable-diesel margin, lifts RD generation and raises credit supply. Direction only — the desk holds no current licensed feedstock or RIN price to size it. The 2026Q1 balance (credits 6.93M MT vs deficits 9.77M MT, bank 36.86M MT) is a drawdown, not scarcity.
Desk view: Judgment — neutral-to-soft front-month LCFS credits: bank drawdown supports, the margin channel offsets.
No new development in the gap window and no citable traded REC mark on our tape this morning; vendor-assessed prices are withheld pending licence determinations. Standing read: 15 states tracked, no class-level direction supportable without a price.
SBTi: no development in the gap window. As standing context, the Corporate Net-Zero Standard v2.0 was published 11 June 2026; validations against V2.0 open 1 February 2027, V1.3.1 submissions close 31 January 2028. Removals: our monitors flag a large change to the Puro Standard General Rules v4.4 document, too large for word-diff and under review — no substantive claim until read. Article 6: nothing new. Judgment — neutral; removals demand remains a 2027 story.
EU ETS (EUA) — mark EUR 86.03 (2026-09-17, Most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), EUA, settlement observation), +0.5% vs prior same-basis mark, carried; primary print EUR 85.66 (2026-09-18, Latest EEX auction clearing price). Rows show surplus narrowing to deficit in 2029. Judgment — constructive.
UK ETS (UKA) — mark GBP 59.76 (2026-09-17, Most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), UKA, settlement observation), -1.5% vs prior same-basis mark, carried; primary print GBP 58.68 (2026-07-31, official monthly average UKA settlement price, CCM table). Dec26 sits 19.1% below EUA in common currency. Judgment — bullish on linkage convergence, patient.
NZ ETS (NZU) — last print NZD 51.00 (2026-09-04), 14 days old against a 7-day cadence; no delta quoted. Australia (ACCU) — AUD 37.50 (2026-05-15, CER QCMR March quarter 2026). No directional view on either.
Corrections & notes