AS OF 21 September 2026, 18:05, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the 2026-09-17 close (prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Correction, riding this note: four evening editions (11, 14, 15 and 16 September) cited Ecology publication 26-14-062, the Auction #15 Notice, as the source of Washington's USD 39.50 settlement. The Notice states the floor price and no settlement price; the source is Ecology publication 26-14-063, the Summary Report. The price and the date were right; the provenance was not.
Standing caveat, applied to every market below: the desk carries a bank figure only for RGGI. Elsewhere the forward rows are budget minus emissions and carry no bank or reserve, so a deficit row is a supply path, not a scarcity call.
EU ETS (EUA) - Mark: EUR 86.03 (2026-09-17, Most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), EUA, settlement observation), +0.5% vs prior same-basis mark. CARRY: carried from the 2026-09-17 session - the same-day settlement file has not reached the tape. Primary print: EUR 86.41 (2026-09-21, Latest EEX auction clearing price).
What moved: today's EEX clearing came in at EUR 86.41, a touch above the carried Dec26 settle.
Why: Carbon Pulse's 18 September daily reported EUAs extending a rally to a 1.6% weekly gain on technicals and firm prompt power; the desk did not verify that leg independently and does not quote a level from it.
Desk view: constructive. The rows show surplus narrowing to a 2029 deficit, structurally tightening, on 1185.4 minus LRF 84 then 86/yr under Directive (EU) 2023/959, with COM(2026) 616 still only a proposal.
UK ETS (UKA) - Mark: GBP 59.76 (2026-09-17, Most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), UKA, settlement observation), -1.5% vs prior same-basis mark, carried from the 2026-09-17 session. Primary print: GBP 58.68 (2026-07-31, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table), 52 days old.
What moved: the only session-scale move on the tape's soft side, down 1.5% on the carried settle.
Why: no sourced cause reached the desk, and the desk assigns none.
Desk view: constructive on structure. Rows are deficit throughout under SI 2020/1265 Table B as amended by SI 2026/392; the differential sits at -22.0% for Dec26 narrowing to -19.5% at Dec28, so the convergence trade is a term trade, not a session one.
California-Quebec (CCA) - Mark: USD 32.08 (2026-09-17, Most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), CCA V26, settlement observation), +1.3% vs prior same-basis mark, carried. Primary print: USD 32.48 (2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price), 33 days old; the mark sits 1.2% below it, which is inside noise.
What moved: up 1.3% on the carried settle.
Why: Carbon Pulse's 18 September daily carried "CFTC: Producers reverse net short in CCA futures, extend in RGAs", a positioning read the desk notes as reported rather than adopts; the amended Table 6-2 removal of 118.3 Mt across 2027-2030 took effect 1 September and is the structural bid.
Desk view: constructive. Rows deficit throughout and deepening, and the rows carry no offset-retirement deduction, so supply is biased high.
Washington (WCA) - Mark: USD 43.45 (2026-09-17, Most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), WCA V26, settlement observation), -0.1% vs prior same-basis mark, carried. Primary print: USD 39.50 (2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement, Ecology publication 26-14-063 Summary Report), 19 days old.
What moved: effectively nothing, -0.1%.
Why: the tape's own information is the spread, not the move - Dec26 stands roughly 10% above the last auction clearing, consistent with repricing since 2 September rather than with auction-level supply.
Desk view: constructive, held. Rows are deficit throughout, and the post-2026 rows are the desk's own extension, not statute, pending Ecology's WAC 173-446 rulemaking; the signed three-jurisdiction linkage track, a linked market possible from 2027, remains the standing catalyst.
RGGI (RGA) - Mark: USD 40.85 (2026-09-17, Most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), RGGI V26, settlement observation), +2.8% vs prior same-basis mark, carried. Primary print: USD 37.65 (2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price), 12 days old; the mark sits about 8.5% above it.
What moved: the biggest same-basis move on the tape, +2.8%.
Why: Carbon Pulse reported RGA benchmark futures gaining over 15% week-on-week after a historic selloff, giving back some of it Monday on broader macro weakness - that Monday giveback is not on our 17 September mark.
Desk view: constructive on structure, respectful of the volatility. Rows are deficit from 2027, deepening to -32.9; the CCR was triggered at Auction 71 in March, over 7.8M sold and the 2026 ten-state CCR fully depleted, while Virginia's separate 1,148,000 CCR tranche cleared inside Auction 73. Virginia's participation resumed 1 July 2026 and its 11.48M H2 budget allowances are offered beginning with Auction 73, spread across the 9 September and 2 December sales. Drawdown pace of the 55M short-ton surplus at end Q2 2026, projected 45M at the CP6 deadline, is the trade.
NZ ETS (NZU) - Last print: NZD 51.00 (2026-09-04, NZU secondary spot, close observation), 17 days old against a 7-day cadence. No delta is quoted: this is a last print, not a mark.
What moved: nothing the desk can mark.
Why: the tape has no fresh mark.
Desk view: rows deficit and stable on an assumption of auctions clearing nothing below the NZD 71 floor - that is the stress case, labelled as such, and the cleared-at-floor case is the milder one.
Australia (ACCU) - Last print: AUD 37.50 (2026-05-15, Generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR March quarter 2026), 129 days old, a quarterly print past its cadence. No fresh mark.
What moved: no fresh mark.
Why: the quarterly is the only citable source the desk holds.
Desk view: constructive on structure, deficit throughout on the legislated 4.9%/yr baseline decline, with the FY25-26 base still the desk's own figure.
Alberta TIER - Administered price: CAD 95.00 for 2026 (governing instrument 15 May 2026, Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement s.1.2.1.1), 129 days since that instrument spoke. Not a market mark.
What moved: Carbon Pulse's 18 September daily headlined Alberta TIER regulated emissions and facility counts falling in the annual report; the desk has not read the report.
Desk view: administered path, CAD 100 for 2027-2029; the live variable is Alberta enacting the credit price floor by 31 December 2026, since clause 1.2.3.4 grandfathers pre-enactment credits.
Fuels and low-carbon fuels - CA LCFS credit USD 79.85 (CARB weekly volume-weighted average, week of 2026-09-07, report posted 2026-09-16, range USD 65.00-85.00). BC LCFS CAD 135.80 (2026-07 monthly average credit transfer price). D4 and D6 RIN prints on the tape are 63 days old, historic, and support no statement on today's level.
What moved: no fresh regulator print landed today.
Why: the CARB weekly is a weekly cadence and its next edition has not posted.
Desk view: the flow channel and the structure disagree. ULSD Gulf Coast at 5.206 USD/GAL (EIA spot, 2026-09-15) with Brent at 130.80 USD/BBL argues a wide renewable-diesel margin, more credit generation, bearish credits; the 2026Q1 balance, credits 6.93M MT against deficits 9.77M MT with a 36.86M MT cumulative bank, argues drawdown. The desk weights structure this session, because the flow channel is direction-only with no licensed current RIN price behind it.
RECs: not covered this edition. VCM: not covered this edition.
What to watch tomorrow (22 September, a trading day). The CARB weekly LCFS credit transfer report sits on the desk's calendar for 22 September on a weekly cadence; the desk carries it when it posts, and prints its absence if it does not. Same-day settlement files for all five carried futures marks are owed - the tape's carry flags lift only when they arrive. Beyond tomorrow: Ecology's WAC 173-446 adoption is estimated 23 September; CFTC Commitments of Traders lands 25 September, which is where the CCA and RGA positioning story either confirms or does not; WA Allowance Price Containment Reserve Auction #8, the annual fixed-price tier, is 30 September, nine days out, per Ecology publication 26-14-072. Open IOU: no settlement print from the 16 September Washington Emissions Containment Reserve Auction #1 (Ecology publication 26-14-068) has reached this tape as of the stamp above, and the desk will not characterise it further from this vantage; the Summary Report, not the notice, is the citation when it comes.
Correction issued 2026-09-21
Correction: the citation behind Washington's Auction #15 settlement price: four evening editions (11, 14, 15 and 16 September) cited Ecology publication 26-14-062, the Auction #15 Notice, for the USD 39.50 settlement; the Notice states the floor price and no settlement price - the source is 26-14-063, the... Read the full correction
Corrections & notes