AS OF 23 September 2026, 18:05, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are today's close, marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Lead: Ecology's rulemaking page for the chapter 173-441 and 173-446 WAC cap-and-invest updates and linkage package states the CR-103 Order of Adoption was to be filed with the code reviser on 23 September 2026, today. The desk has not confirmed from this vantage that the filing landed; unverified, not denied. Sections run in the tape's order. RECs: not covered this edition. VCM: not covered this edition.
EU ETS (EUA), EUR. Mark EUR 86.01, 23 September 2026, most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), settlement observation, -0.8% vs prior same-basis mark. Primary print EUR 85.53, 22 September 2026, latest EEX auction clearing price.
What moved: A drift, not an event; the mark sits 0.6 percent above yesterday's auction clearing, which is inside normal auction-to-screen basis.
Why: Below the desk's one percent threshold, so no cause is asserted and none was sought.
Desk view: Constructive on structure. Rows run supply 1101.4/1015.4/929.4/843.4 against demand 987.7/972.9/958.3/943.9, a surplus narrowing to deficit in 2029; these are budget minus emissions and carry no bank, so this is a supply path rather than a scarcity call, with the MSR contingent supply that has not released.
UK ETS (UKA), GBP. Mark GBP 58.22, 23 September 2026, most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), +0.2% vs prior same-basis mark. Last print GBP 58.68, 31 July 2026, official monthly average UKA settlement (Dec futures), CCM table, 54 days old and on a monthly cadence.
What moved: Essentially unchanged on the session.
Why: No dated driver; sub-threshold.
Desk view: Deficit throughout on rows set by SI 2020/1265 Table B as amended by SI 2026/392. The differential holds at -21.1 percent at Dec26, narrowing to -18.7 percent by Dec28 (ECB EUR/GBP, 22 September; mixed timing basis disclosed).
California-Quebec (CCA), USD. Mark USD 31.40, 23 September 2026, Dec26 CCA V26 settlement, -0.3 percent. Primary print USD 32.48, 19 August 2026, Auction 48 current-vintage settlement.
What moved: Flat. The mark sits 3.3 percent below the Auction 48 clearing, 35 days of repricing since that sale.
Why: Sub-threshold on the day; no cause asserted.
Desk view: Tight. Amended 17 CCR 95841 Table 6-2, effective 1 September 2026, removes 118.3 Mt across 2027-2030; separately a Manufacturing Decarbonization Incentive account allocates 2028-2035. Rows carry no bank.
Washington (WCA), USD. Mark USD 39.40, 23 September 2026, Dec26 WCA V26 settlement, -0.3 percent. Primary print USD 39.50, 2 September 2026, Auction #15 settlement.
What moved: Flat, and marked within a quarter percent of the September clearing.
Why: No dated driver today; the CR-103 filing date above is the live item.
Desk view: Post-2026 rows are the desk's own extension of the pre-2027 decline, not statute, and supersede when Ecology's rule takes effect. The CA-Quebec-WA linkage track, signed June 2026, is the standing catalyst. APCR is untriggered contingent supply; the ECR's first-ever sale was held 16 September (Ecology publication 26-14-068) and results are an open IOU here.
RGGI (RGA), USD. Mark USD 37.69, 23 September 2026, Dec26 RGGI V26 settlement, -2.3 percent vs prior same-basis mark. Primary print USD 37.65, 9 September 2026, Auction 73 clearing.
What moved: The largest move on our tape. The percentage is our own day-over-day figure and is not externally corroborated for today's date.
Why: No dated driver found for today. The standing frame is post-auction repricing: Carbon Pulse reported RGAs dipped after Q3 results showed an all-time-high clear below secondary prices, then a slight rebound after that dip as of 21 September. The desk does not attribute today's session to it.
Desk view: Flow soft against structurally tightening rows (deficit from 2027, -9.8 deepening to -32.9, ten-state basis). We differ from the balance rows on the near term and follow flow, because the monitor's 55M short-ton surplus at end Q2 2026, projected 45M at the CP6 deadline, is the load-bearing stock and the 2026 CCR is spent. Virginia's participation resumed 1 July 2026; its H2 budget allowances are offered beginning with Auction 73, spread across the 9 September and 2 December sales.
NZ ETS (NZU), NZD. Last print NZD 51.00, 4 September 2026, secondary spot scrape; 19 days old against a 7-day cadence, so no delta is quoted.
What moved: Nothing we can see; no fresh mark.
Why: Not applicable without a current print.
Desk view: No direction call. Rows assume auctions clear nothing below the NZD 71 floor; that is the stress case, labelled as such, and the desk holds no cleared-at-floor counterpart today.
Australia (ACCU), AUD. Last print AUD 37.50, 15 May 2026, CER QCMR March quarter 2026, 131 days old. No fresh mark.
What moved / Why: Quarterly source, nothing new.
Desk view: Deficit on legislated baseline decline; the FY25-26 base remains the desk's own figure, with CER totals an open pull.
Alberta TIER, CAD. Administered headline price CAD 95.00 for 2026, s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement, 15 May 2026. No tradeable mark: no reference contract determinable.
What moved: Administered, so nothing.
Desk view: The live item is the credit price floor regulation due to be enacted by 31 December 2026; clause 1.2.3.4 grandfathers pre-enactment credits, which makes the enactment date economically live now.
BC LCFS, CAD. Last print CAD 135.80, July 2026 monthly average credit transfer price. No fresher mark.
Fuels. CA LCFS credit USD 83.77, week of 14 September 2026, CARB weekly volume-weighted average, report posted today, range USD 74.00 to 85.25. RIN prints (D3 2.5820, D4 2.0639, D5 2.3402, D6 2.2615, 20 July 2026, EPA EMTS) are 65 days old, historic, not marks, and the D4/D6 lines carry [confirm: nesting inversion, cross-check against a commercial assessment]. Energy legs, EIA, 15 September: Brent USD 130.80/bbl, WTI USD 107.02/bbl, ULSD Gulf Coast USD 5.206/gal, Henry Hub USD 2.97/MMBtu.
Desk view: The renewable-diesel margin channel is direction-only until RIN inputs are licensed at cadence; no number claimed. The quarterly balance is 2026Q1, credits 6.93M MT against deficits 9.77M MT, cumulative bank 36.86M MT, not current.
What to watch tomorrow, Thursday 24 September. No auction on the desk's calendar. Three dated items sit just beyond it: CFTC Commitments of Traders on Friday 25 September for carbon-complex positioning; the WA APCR Auction #8 annual fixed-price tier on Wednesday 30 September (Ecology publication 26-14-072), seven days out and the standing lead as it nears; and CARB's weekly LCFS credit transfer report, next expected 29 September on our overlay. Open IOUs carried forward: WA ECR Auction #1 results from 16 September, and confirmation that Ecology's CR-103 order was in fact filed today, which is what re-rows the WCA supply ladder.
Corrections & notes
Open IOUs (from this edition's own confirm flags): - confirm: nesting inversion, cross-check against a commercial assessment