AS OF 23 September 2026, 06:00, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the 2026-09-22 close (prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Washington (WCA). Mark: USD 39.50 — 2026-09-22, most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), WCA V26, settlement observation; carried from the 2026-09-22 session, −2.5% vs prior same-basis mark. Primary print: USD 39.50, 2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement. Mark and primary are identical; no spread to read.
What moved: Ecology's rulemaking page for the chapter 173-441/173-446 WAC cap-and-invest updates and linkage package states the CR-103 Order of Adoption is to be filed with the code reviser on 23 September 2026 — today. The amendments are framed to improve programme implementation, facilitate linkage of Washington's market with California-Québec, and reflect amendments to the CCA (chapter 70A.65 RCW) .
Why: Our forward rows for WCA post-2026 are the desk's own extension of the pre-2027 statutory decline, not statute; this adoption is the armed supersede condition (estimated effective 24 October 2026), after which the rows re-state off Ecology's budgets. The linkage track — draft agreement March 2026, signed by all three jurisdictions June 2026 — is the structural catalyst behind the WCA/CCA basis.
Desk view: Neutral into the print. Rows are DEFICIT throughout (−12.4 Mt in 2027 deepening to −24.2 Mt by 2030), but those rows are budget-minus-emissions and carry no bank or reserve, so this is a supply path, not a scarcity call; APCR Auction #8 on 30 September (Ecology publication 26-14-072) and the first-ever ECR sale held 16 September (Ecology publication 26-14-068) are contingent supply — the desk holds no settlement print for the 16 September ECR sale, which stays open.
California-Quebec (CCA). Mark: USD 31.51 — 2026-09-22, Dec26 futures settlement, CCA V26; carried from the prior session, −0.9%. Primary print: USD 32.48, 2026-08-19, Auction 48 current-vintage settlement. Futures sit ~3% under the August clearing.
What moved: Nothing new in the last 24 hours on the Californian leg.
Why: Standing: amended 17 CCR 95841 Table 6-2 took effect 1 September 2026, removing 118.3 Mt across 2027-2030; separately a Manufacturing Decarbonization Incentive account is created with a 2028-2035 allocation window — withdrawn from auction and allocation is not permanent retirement. Rows are DEFICIT throughout (−27.0 Mt 2027 to −84.2 Mt 2030) and carry no bank or reserve figure.
Desk view: Constructive on the curve, soft on flow — buy weakness. Front futures below the last clearing is a discount the structure does not support.
RGGI (RGA). Mark: USD 38.57 — 2026-09-22, Dec26 futures settlement, RGGI V26; carried, −2.4%. Primary print: USD 37.65, 2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing.
What moved: No new RGGI primary overnight.
Why: Virginia rejoined on 1 July 2026 (participation is eleven states; the cap ladder stays ten-state until DEQ aligns 1 January 2027), and its 11.48M H2-2026 budget allowances plus a 1,148,000 CCR tranche are offered beginning with Auction 73, spread across the 9 September and 2 December sales. The 2026 ten-state CCR was triggered and fully depleted at Auction 71 (11 March 2026). Rows are deficit from 2027 (−9.8 to −32.9M short tons) against 55M short tons of allowances in circulation at end-Q2 2026, projected 45M at the CP6 deadline (Potomac special Supply & Demand report, 21 August 2026).
Desk view: Constructive, but the trade is drawdown pace, not any single year. Henry Hub at USD 2.97/MMBtu (EIA, 2026-09-15) keeps gas ahead of coal in dispatch — mildly demand-negative at the margin (judgment).
Alberta TIER. Primary print: CAD 95.00 — 2026-05-15, headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement. No citable secondary mark: the NGX quote is held because no reference contract can be determined.
What moved: Nothing new.
Why: Administered price, flat at CAD 95 for 2026 and CAD 100 for 2027-2029 under the same clause; the credit price floor (s.1.2.3.5) is to be enacted by 31 December 2026, and clause 1.2.3.4 grandfathers pre-enactment credits.
Desk view: Neutral on the headline; the live variable is the floor-enactment date, which fixes the grandfathering cutoff and is economically live now.
Mark: USD 83.77 — CARB weekly volume-weighted average credit transfer price, week of 2026-09-14, report posted 2026-09-23 (range USD 74.00-85.25). BC LCFS: CAD 135.80, 2026-07 monthly average credit transfer price. RIN prints on our tape are 65 days old and are historic, not marks; Canada's CFR carries no citable market mark here.
What moved: The weekly CARB print landed this morning.
Why: Brent at USD 130.80/bbl and Gulf Coast ULSD at USD 5.206/gal (EIA spot, 2026-09-15) mean a wide renewable-diesel margin: diesel repriced up, feedstock lags, more RD generated, credit supply up.
Desk view: Flow says bearish, structure says otherwise — 2026Q1 showed credits 6.93M MT against deficits 9.77M MT (net −2.84M; cumulative bank 36.86M MT, quarter ended 31 March 2026). We weight flow this session: the margin is current and the balance is 176 days stale. We differ from the balance rows deliberately: the renewable-diesel margin is this session's signal and the 2026Q1 bank is 176 days stale.
No fresh REC development; our monitors flag a text change to Washington's CETA (RCW 19.285), substance unconfirmed (unverified). Standing: 15 states tracked with RPS, 5,331,457 MWh of RECs across 33 active projects. No portfolio-average price by design — classes satisfy different obligations.
SBTi is standing context, not news: Corporate Net-Zero Standard v2.0 published 11 June 2026, validations against V2.0 open 1 February 2027, V1.3.1 submissions close 31 January 2028 and V2.0 becomes mandatory 1 February 2028. On removals, our monitors flag a large change to Puro Standard General Rules v4.4, too large for word diff and not yet reviewed — substance unverified. No Article 6 or crediting-standard primary the desk holds moved overnight.
Desk view: Neutral. Nothing dated in the last 24 hours changes credit demand.
EU ETS (EUA). Mark: EUR 86.73 — 2026-09-22, Dec26 futures settlement, carried from that session, +0.2%. Primary print: EUR 85.53, 2026-09-22, latest EEX auction clearing.
What moved: No new primary overnight.
Why: Rows show surplus narrowing (+113.7 Mt 2027) and flipping to deficit in 2029 (−28.9 Mt) — structurally tightening under Directive (EU) 2023/959; COM(2026) 616 remains a proposal.
Desk view: Mildly constructive; the auction clearing 1.4% under the futures settle is an ordinary primary-secondary gap, not a signal.
UK ETS (UKA). Mark: GBP 58.12 — 2026-09-22, Dec26 futures settlement, carried, +0.2%. Primary print: GBP 58.68, 2026-07-31, official monthly average UKA settlement (Dec futures), CCM table. Dec26 UKA trades 21.9% below EUA in common currency (ECB EUR/GBP, 2026-09-22).
Desk view: Neutral-to-constructive; deficit rows (−2.7 to −17.2 Mt) against an unresolved linkage discount.
Others. NZU: NZD 51.00, 2026-09-04 secondary spot — 19 days old against a 7-day cadence, a last print, not a mark, so no delta. ACCU: AUD 37.50, 2026-05-15 CER QCMR March-quarter generic spot — last print. Neither carries a bank figure in our rows.
Corrections & notes