title: "RGGI Dec26 leads a thin 25 September tape; Washington's APCR fixed-price sale is the next dated event" date: 2026-09-25
AS OF 25 September 2026, 18:05, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are today's close, marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Basis note carried once for every programme below: the forward rows are budget minus emissions and carry no bank, no reserve and no cost-containment tranche, so they are supply paths rather than scarcity calls. The desk holds a stock figure only for RGGI, from the market monitor's special supply and demand report on allowances in circulation at end Q2 2026.
Mark EUR 86.78 (2026-09-25, Most liquid futures settlement), -0.2 versus the prior same-basis mark. Primary print EUR 85.50 (2026-09-25, Latest EEX auction clearing price).
What moved: A shade lower on the Dec26 settle, with today's EEX clearing printing just under the futures close.
Why: Inside a normal auction-day spread; no dated development is asserted behind a sub-one-percent session.
Desk view: Constructive on the structure, since the rows narrow from a 2027 surplus into deficit by 2029 under the LRF in Directive (EU) 2023/959, while COM(2026) 616 remains a proposal and is written as one.
Mark GBP 59.42 (2026-09-25, Most liquid futures settlement), -0.6. Primary print GBP 59.34 (2026-08-31, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table), a monthly average and therefore a different basis from the mark.
What moved: Softer than EUA on the day, keeping UKA at a discount to EUA at the front that narrows along the curve to Dec28.
Why: No dated UK development today; the discount remains a linkage-expectation trade, which is a standing desk view rather than a fresh print.
Desk view: Long-biased structurally against rows in deficit throughout, set by SI 2020/1265 Table B as amended by SI 2026/392 with maritime in force since July.
Mark USD 31.71 (2026-09-25, Most liquid futures settlement), -0.0. Primary print USD 32.48 (2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price).
What moved: Unchanged on the session, with the mark sitting modestly below the August auction clear.
Why: Nothing dated today; the amended 17 CCR 95841 Table 6-2 budget removal took effect at the start of September and is already in the rows.
Desk view: Tightening, -27.0 in 2027 and deepening, and the rows carry no offset-retirement deduction so supply is biased high.
Mark USD 38.40 (2026-09-25, Most liquid futures settlement), 0.0. Primary print USD 39.50 (2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement).
What moved: Flat, with the mark holding below the September auction settlement and well below Auction #14's June clear.
Why: The next dated event is APCR Auction #8, an annual fixed-price sale on the thirtieth of September, whose Tier 1 and Tier 2 prices in Ecology publication 26-14-072 both sit above tonight's mark; the ECR sale held on the sixteenth cleared its full vintage-2023 offering (Ecology publication 26-14-068).
Desk view: Tight, on Ecology's adopted Table 210-1 budgets, with 2029 and 2030 due to re-row upon linkage per the table's own footnote.
Mark USD 39.62 (2026-09-25, Most liquid futures settlement), 2.9. Primary print USD 37.65 (2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price).
What moved: The session's one material move, RGA Dec26 higher, extending the mark's premium over the September auction clear.
Why: No dated catalyst is sourceable for today; the standing facts are that the 2026 CCR was fully depleted at Auction 71 in March and Virginia, whose participation resumed on the first of July, is offering budget allowances beginning with Auction 73 and spread across the September and December sales. Separately, Virginia's Energy Commission RGGI subcommittee reviewed allowance prices, bill credits and proceeds on Monday, with the state's 9 September auction proceeds around 259 million dollars.
Desk view: Long-biased; rows are -9.8 in 2027 and deepen, and the drawdown pace of the circulating surplus, not any single compliance year, is the trade.
Last print NZD 52.00 (2026-09-17, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks)), stale against a weekly cadence and therefore not a current mark; no delta is quoted against it.
What moved: Nothing observable on a stale secondary series.
Why: The September quarterly auction on the eighth drew no bids and did not clear, the third 2026 auction to fail, with the full unsold volume rolled to the next scheduled sale on the first of December.
Desk view: The rows assume auctions clear nothing below the statutory floor, which is the stress case and is labelled as such; the desk treats a further no-clear in December as the base case, and a cleared-at-floor December would add auction supply the rows do not carry.
Last print AUD 39.03 (2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot (CER QCMR, June quarter 2026: post-quarter price, 14 August 2026), a quarterly regulator print past its cadence, not a session mark.
What moved: No fresh mark on our tape.
Why: The repricer is the regulator's quarterly market report on its own cadence; the desk carries it when it posts.
Desk view: Tight on the legislated Safeguard baseline decline, with the FY25-26 base still the desk's own figure rather than a published total.
Administered price CAD 95.00 (2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement (15 May 2026), a scheduled policy price, not a traded mark, and no citable reference contract exists for the traded market.
What moved: Nothing; the headline price is set by schedule.
Why: The governing instrument is the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement headline schedule to 2040.
Desk view: The live item is the credit price floor regulation Alberta is to enact before year-end, because the enactment date fixes the grandfathering cutoff under clause 1.2.3.4.
Last print CAD 172.00 (2026-08-31, Monthly average credit transfer price), a monthly average.
What moved: No fresh mark; the series is monthly.
Why: Nothing dated in the British Columbia programme today.
Desk view: Neutral pending the next monthly transfer-price print.
No current RIN mark: the tape's D3, D4, D5 and D6 prints are historic weekly averages, not marks, and the desk attaches no current level or direction to them. The energy legs are dated EIA spot prints from earlier this week.
What moved: CARB's weekly LCFS credit transfer report covering the week of mid-September posted this week at a volume-weighted average above each of the prior four weekly prints.
Why: The credit-supply channel runs through the renewable-diesel margin, diesel less feedstock; the desk states it direction-only because it holds no current licensed RIN price.
Desk view: Supportive, against a quarterly bank that was drawing down in 2026Q1, credits below deficits on the quarter; the next weekly report is dated the twenty-ninth of September.
CFTC Commitments of Traders for the carbon complex printed this afternoon and the next release is dated the second of October. MISO filed Tariff and Business Practice Manual revisions dated today; no carbon-programme effect is claimed for them. RECs: not covered this edition. VCM: not covered this edition.
Corrections & notes