AS OF 25 September 2026, 06:00, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the 2026-09-24 close (prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Washington (WCA). Mark: USD 38.40 (2026-09-24, Most liquid futures settlement), -2.5, carried from the prior session. Primary print: USD 39.50 (2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement).
What moved: The Dec26 mark was the weakest leg on our screen overnight and sits below the Auction #15 clearing, so the curve is discounting the last primary print rather than tracking it.
Why: Ecology adopted the Chapter 173-446 amendments on September 23, 2026, effective October 24, 2026; 2027 to 2030 supply now comes from the adopted Table 210-1 column, with 2029 and 2030 to re-row upon linkage. APCR Auction #8 (Ecology publication 26-14-072) offers a small fixed-price Tier 1 and Tier 2 tranche next week, and the ECR sale on September 16, 2026 cleared its full offering.
Desk view: Judgment, neutral to constructive on Dec26. The adopted rows run deficit through the horizon (-9.4 in 2027), and reserve tranches are contingent supply that has now partly released rather than a ceiling; we would not chase the discount lower into the reserve sale.
California-Quebec (CCA). Mark: USD 31.72 (2026-09-24, Most liquid futures settlement), 1.0, carried. Primary print: USD 32.48 (2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price).
What moved: Nothing new in the last 24 hours the desk holds a primary on; the mark firmed modestly.
Why: Standing context: the amendments took effect September 1, 2026, removing 118.3 Mt from 2027 to 2030 budgets, with a separately created Manufacturing Decarbonization Incentive account. CCUS treatment remains placeholder pending SB 905 rules (Citizen Portal, Feb 2026), and a CEQA challenge to the amendments is live (Jones Day).
Desk view: Bullish structurally, patient tactically: rows are deficit from 2027 (-27.0), and the rows carry no offset-retirement deduction, so supply is biased high.
RGGI (RGA). Mark: USD 38.52 (2026-09-24, Most liquid futures settlement), 2.2, carried. Primary print: USD 37.65 (2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price).
What moved: No RGGI-specific development overnight; the federal backdrop moved earlier this month, with EPA's partial repeal of the 2024 Carbon Pollution Standards published and effective in November (Federal Register), alongside a separate supplemental proposal that is not final.
Why: Ten-state cap basis, 2027 at 69806919 short tons; Virginia participates since 1 July and its budget allowances are offered beginning with Auction 73, spread across September and December. The 2026 CCR was triggered and fully depleted at Auction 71.
Desk view: Bullish on a one to two year view (-9.8 in 2027), but the load-bearing variable is the pace at which the circulating surplus draws down, not any single compliance year. Federal deregulation is a demand-side headwind at the margin, since less federal pressure on coal and gas units means higher covered emissions but also weaker abatement urgency; we read it as bearish sentiment, neutral to the cap.
Alberta TIER. Print: CAD 95.00 (2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement (15 May 2026). No citable futures mark; the reference contract cannot be determined.
What moved: No Alberta TIER development in the last 24 hours.
Why: The administered schedule governs: headline price steps up in 2027 and again in 2030, and Alberta is to enact the credit price floor regulation by the end of 2026, which fixes the grandfathering cutoff for credits generated before enactment.
Desk view: Judgment, constructive on post-enactment vintages; pre-enactment credits stay transferable below the floor, so the enactment date, not 2030, is the live repricer.
CARB's weekly credit transfer report covering the week of 14 September posted on 22 September and showed the volume-weighted average up for a second consecutive week; the next report is on the calendar for 29 September. BC LCFS print: CAD 172.00 (2026-08-31, Monthly average credit transfer price). RIN prints on our tape are 32 days old and are historic, not marks. Read: mildly bullish CA LCFS credits. The 2026Q1 quarterly balance showed deficits exceeding credits, drawing the cumulative bank down, and the renewable-diesel margin channel (diesel less feedstock) is direction-only here without a current licensed RIN price. Canada CFR: no new development; absolute credit volumes remain unstatable until ECCC publishes retirement data.
No citable REC price on our tape, so no firmness call by class. Our monitors flag MISO tariff and business practice manual updates posted this morning, carried as an open item with no REC or carbon provision identified. Standing context: 15 states with RPS obligations tracked, per-class pricing intake still partial.
SBTi: no new development. Standing context, the Corporate Net-Zero Standard v2.0 was published in June 2026; validations against it open at the start of February 2027, with mandatory application a year later. Removals: Austria has published a draft CO2 Storage Act ending its 2011 geological storage ban, explicitly framed to enable BECCS, with consultation open (Carbon Herald, Bioenergy Insight). It is a draft bill, not law. Read: mildly bullish durable-removal supply optionality, neutral for near-term CORC pricing given the capped, permitting-gated design. Article 6: nothing the desk holds a primary on.
EU ETS (EUA). Mark: EUR 86.96 (2026-09-24, Most liquid futures settlement), 1.1, carried. Primary print: EUR 85.50 (2026-09-25, Latest EEX auction clearing price).
What moved: Firmer on the carried settle; the Austrian storage bill is the only fresh EU item and is a 2030s supply-of-abatement story, not a front-month driver.
Why: Surplus narrows to 113.7 in 2027 and flips to deficit in 2029 on the LRF path; the MSR at the current TNAC is taking in, not releasing.
Desk view: Bullish structurally, neutral on the session.
UK ETS (UKA). Mark: GBP 59.77 (2026-09-24, Most liquid futures settlement), 2.7, carried. Primary print: GBP 59.34 (2026-08-31, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table). UKA trades below EUA in common currency across the curve, the discount narrowing from the front to Dec28. Read: bullish on linkage convergence, rows deficit at -2.7 in 2027.
NZ ETS (NZU). Mark: NZD 52.00 (2026-09-17), stale at 8 days against a 7 day cadence, so no delta. The September auction failed with no bids and the volume rolled to December, the third 2026 failure. Read: the no-clear case has occurred and is our base case for December.
Australia (ACCU). Print: AUD 39.03 (2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot (CER QCMR, June quarter 2026: post-quarter price, 14 August 2026). No new development; rows deficit at -22.8 in 2027. Read: constructive, unchanged.
Corrections & notes