title: "Evening note, 28 September 2026: European marks ease, North American marks firm, Washington's reserve auction sets up for Wednesday" date: 2026-09-28
AS OF 28 September 2026, 18:05, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are today's close, marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Sections run in the tape's own instrument order.
Mark: EUR 86.17 (2026-09-28, Most liquid futures settlement), -0.7 day over day. Primary print: EUR 85.90 (2026-09-28, Latest EEX auction clearing price).
What moved: A softer close, with the futures mark finishing within a hair of today's auction clearing, so the secondary tape and the primary tape agree on level.
Why: No same-day driver is sourceable for a move of this size. The live policy item is the Council's negotiating mandate on the Market Stability Reserve, ST 13517/26, which would change invalidation of reserve holdings; it is a mandate for trilogue with Parliament, not law, and the desk's rows carry the Directive as it stands.
Desk view: Constructive into weakness. The forward rows show the surplus narrowing and flipping to deficit in 2029, and today's drift does not touch that.
Mark: GBP 58.96 (2026-09-28, Most liquid futures settlement), -0.8. Primary print: GBP 59.34 (2026-08-31, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table).
What moved: Down with Europe, slightly more. The Dec26 differential to EUA in common currency is -20.5, with UKA below EUA at the front and the discount narrowing out the curve.
Why: No verified same-day cause. The standing driver remains linkage expectations, a desk view carried since August rather than a dated event.
Desk view: Long the discount narrowing, not the outright. The rows run deficit throughout on a supply picture two years behind the price.
Mark: USD 31.79 (2026-09-28, Most liquid futures settlement), 0.3. Primary print: USD 32.48 (2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price).
What moved: A marginally firmer close, with the mark still a touch under the August auction clearing.
Why: Nothing dated today. The structural driver, CARB's amended budget table effective at the start of September, is already in the rows.
Desk view: Constructive, with the caveat that the observed balance data ends in 2023 and the 2024 to 2026 rows are estimates.
Mark: USD 38.75 (2026-09-28, Most liquid futures settlement), 0.9. Primary print: USD 39.50 (2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement).
What moved: The firmest of the two western marks, closing modestly below the 2 September auction settlement.
Why: No sourceable same-day catalyst. Wednesday's reserve auction is the visible event, and its tier prices are fixed in Ecology's notice well above today's mark.
Desk view: Constructive. The adopted Table 210-1 budgets, effective next month, deepen the deficit in every forward year, and 2029 and 2030 re-row again at linkage.
Mark: USD 40.02 (2026-09-28, Most liquid futures settlement), 1.0. Primary print: USD 37.65 (2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price).
What moved: The strongest mark on the tape, and it sits materially above the 9 September clearing. The desk reads that spread as repricing since the auction rather than a data question.
Why: No dated cause found for today's session. Standing facts: the CCR was triggered at Auction 71 in March, over 7.8 million allowances sold and the 2026 reserve fully depleted, so it is a spent lever. Virginia's participation resumed on the first of July, and its second-half budget allowances are offered beginning with Auction 73, spread across the September and December sales. Dominion has asked the commission to reinstate its Rider RGGI, with a hearing reported by The Center Square for late October, unconfirmed against the primary.
Desk view: Long. The 2027 balance is a one-year flow of -9.8 against a stock of 55,000,000 short tons (surplus allowances in circulation, 2026-06-30), so the trade is drawdown pace, not any single compliance year; the position is sized on that stock, not the flow alone.
Last print: NZD 52.00 (2026-09-17, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks)), 11 days old against a 7 day cadence. That is a last print, not a mark, and no percentage is quoted against it.
What moved: Nothing today. The 8 September quarterly auction failed: no bids, the full offering unsold and rolled to the December auction, the third 2026 auction to fail.
Why: Bidding below the floor, the premise the rows already carry.
Desk view: The rows are the zero-supply stress case, and the desk carries no clear as its base case into December; if December instead cleared at the floor, supply would be higher and the deficit shallower than the rows show.
No fresh mark today. Last print: AUD 39.03 (2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot (CER QCMR, June quarter 2026: post-quarter price, 14 August 2026), a quarterly figure past its cadence.
What moved: Nothing citable.
Why: No print, no event.
Desk view: Structurally tight on the legislated baseline decline; unmarked, so no level view.
Administered price: CAD 95.00 (2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement (15 May 2026). No publishable secondary mark.
What moved: An administered price does not move intraday.
Why: The governing instrument is the Implementation Agreement's headline schedule.
Desk view: The live item is Alberta's credit price floor regulation, to be enacted by the end of this year, with credits generated before enactment grandfathered.
Last print: CAD 172.00 (2026-08-31, Monthly average credit transfer price), a monthly series.
What moved: Nothing; the next monthly average is the next observation.
Why: Cadence, not news.
Desk view: Neutral pending the next monthly print.
CA LCFS credit: 83.77, week of 2026-09-14, posted 2026-09-22, range 74.00 to 85.25. RIN prints on the tape are 35 days old and historic, so no statement here rests on them.
What moved: The latest CARB weekly print is above each of the four prior weekly prints the tape carries.
Why: The renewable diesel margin channel, diesel less feedstock, is the credit supply variable: Brent 114.89, WTI 96.41 and Gulf Coast ULSD 4.992, EIA spot, 2026-09-22. The channel is carried direction only and no number is claimed from it.
Desk view: Constructive on credits while the bank draws; the quarterly balance is 2026Q1, published end July, and is not current.
Delaware's RPS compliance report was due today. The result is not registered, and the desk holds no citable price for that class.
VCM: not covered this edition.
CARB's weekly LCFS credit transfer report is due on its Tuesday cadence and will be carried when it posts. Wednesday brings Washington's Allowance Price Containment Reserve Auction #8, the annual fixed-price tier sale, with tier prices set in Ecology's notice above the current WCA mark. Friday brings the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for positioning across the carbon complex. The Delaware RPS result stays on the list until it prints.
Corrections & notes