AS OF 28 September 2026, 06:00, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the 2026-09-25 close (prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
California-Quebec (CCA) - mark USD 31.71 (2026-09-25, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), -0.0; primary print USD 32.48 (2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price).
What moved: Nothing we can mark: this is the same settle our 25 September evening edition carried, and we have no marked level for the gap window since.
Why: No new Californian instrument in the window; the amended 17 CCR 95841 Table 6-2 removal of 118.3 Mt across 2027-2030 is already in the rows.
Desk view: Constructive. The 2027 flow row is -27.0 Mt against holdings of 1,179,243,461 allowances (holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted, 2026-07-02), so the deficit is real but heavily stock-buffered; the futures mark sits below the August auction print, which is the linkage and vintage discount, not new bearish information.
Washington (WCA) - mark USD 38.40 (2026-09-25, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), 0.0; primary print USD 39.50 (2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement).
What moved: Ecology's adopted Chapter 173-446 and 173-441 WAC text is now the supply table (Ecology publication Ecology-WAC-173-446-Adopted-Text-2026-09-23); APCR Auction #8 is dated September 30, 2026 at Tier 1 $65.26 and Tier 2 $83.84.
Why: ECR Auction #1 sold 731,000 of 731,000 allowances at $39.50, cover 2.11, so reserve tranches are clearing at the auction level, not above it.
Desk view: Neutral into the reserve sale. The 2027 flow is -9.4 Mt, but no bank or holdings series is held for this market: what is held beside it is the auction record, which is not a stock, so the deficit is a supply path rather than a sized scarcity call.
RGGI (RGA) - mark USD 39.62 (2026-09-25, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), 2.9; primary print USD 37.65 (2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price).
What moved: EPA's partial repeal of the 2024 Carbon Pollution Standards, signed September 14, 2026, is effective November 16, 2026; it repeals the emission guidelines for existing steam units and the CCS-based standards for large-modification coal units and new base load turbines , with a concurrent supplemental proposal seeking comment on rescinding all remaining GHG requirements (Federal Register).
Why: Removing the federal backbone leaves RGGI as the binding constraint on eastern fossil generation; Virginia's resumed participation added real auction supply at Auction 73, which raised USD 259.3 million for the state.
Desk view: Bullish, on drawdown pace. The 2028 flow row is -17.5 million short tons against a surplus of 55,000,000 short tons (surplus allowances in circulation, 2026-06-30), and the 2026 CCR is a spent lever, triggered at Auction 71 above $18.22.
Alberta TIER - no citable futures mark: the desk marks the most liquid contract and no reference contract can be determined for Alberta credits. Print CAD 95.00 (2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement (15 May 2026).
What moved: Nothing registered in the gap window; as context, from mid-September, 440 Megatonnes (Canadian Climate Institute), publication 440Megatonnes-Alberta-Market-Tracking-2026-09-15 put credits trading above $27.
Why: The live variable is enactment of the credit price floor regulation, due from Alberta by the end of this year, because credits generated before enactment are grandfathered and stay transferable below the floor.
Desk view: Neutral on the headline, constructive on pre-enactment credits. No stock figure is held; what is held is the headline schedule, which is a price, not a stock. Balance rows are two years behind the price, so we do not lean on them.
CARB's weekly print is USD 83.77 for the week of 2026-09-14, posted 2026-09-22, range 74.00 to 85.25. BC LCFS CAD 172.00 (2026-08-31, Monthly average credit transfer price). RIN prints on our tape are historic and not usable for today's level.
What moved: The California weekly stepped up off the prior four weekly averages, the clearest sequential move in the complex.
Why: The renewable-diesel margin channel, diesel less feedstock: 114.89 $/BBL Brent and 96.41 WTI against Gulf Coast ULSD 4.992 (2026-09-22, US EIA spot) leaves a firm distillate crack, which widens the margin, lifts RD generation and is bearish credit supply, against a 2026Q1 balance of credits 6.93M MT versus deficits 9.77M MT and a cumulative bank of 36.86M MT.
Desk view: Flow says bearish, the quarterly balance says tightening; we are weighting the balance, because the bank drew down in 2026Q1 and the weekly print is rising through it. Canada CFR rows are an index, not a quantity, until ECCC publishes retirement data, so no CFR direction.
The desk tracks 33 US RPS jurisdictions and holds a sourced traded price for 14 of them. Delaware's RPS compliance report is due today and is not registered; we will carry the result when it posts.
Desk view: Neutral across California PCC categories, Northeast Class I / Tier 1 and SRECs alike, and explicitly so: none of the three carries a citable price on our tape this morning, and a firmness call on an unpriced class is not a call.
SBTi: No new development. As standing context, the Corporate Net-Zero Standard V2.0 is published and validations against it open next year; SBTi Services, publication SBTi-Services-Transition-Guidance-V2 governs the transition. Read: neutral, no demand impulse before validations open.
Removals: Our monitors flag a material revision to Puro.earth Oy, publication Puro-Standard-General-Rules-v4-4. Read: neutral pending a clause-level read; general-rules changes move issuance eligibility, not near-term CORC pricing.
Article 6 / GCC: No registered development in the window.
EU ETS (EUA) - mark EUR 86.78 (2026-09-25, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), -0.2, carried from the prior session; primary print EUR 85.90 (2026-09-28, Latest EEX auction clearing price).
What moved: Coreper agreed a negotiating mandate on ceasing invalidation of MSR allowances on 23 September 2026: invalidation above 400 million suspended to end-2030, with a 800 million threshold thereafter. The Council took a more cautious line than the Commission, which had proposed an indefinite halt, and aims for agreement by the end of 2026 (Agence Europe); Parliament has not set its position and the rules are not in force .
Why: Fewer cancelled allowances in the 2030s is a long-end loosening, but at a TNAC of 1,023,494,202 allowances (total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC), 2025-12-31) the reserve is in intake, not release, so nothing changes front-end auction volume now.
Desk view: Mildly bullish front, capped. Our rows carry the Directive as it stands: 2027 flow 113.7 Mt surplus flipping to -28.9 Mt deficit in 2029.
UK ETS (UKA) - mark GBP 59.42 (2026-09-25, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), -0.6; primary print GBP 59.34 (2026-08-31, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table).
What moved: Nothing registered; the Dec26 discount to EUA in common currency is -20.4.
Why: Linkage talks remain the standing repricer, and the maritime extension is in force.
Desk view: Constructive on the spread, not the outright. 2028 flow -17.2 Mt; no holdings or bank series is published for this market, so what sits beside the flow is the registry's emissions and surrender record, which is not a stock.
Other jurisdictions: NZU NZD 52.00 (2026-09-17, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks)) is a last print, 11 days old against a 7-day cadence, so no delta. The September auction failed: 10,400,000 of 10,400,000 units unsold, the third 2026 failure, rolled to December; the desk's base case for December is another no-clear. ACCU print AUD 39.03 (2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot (CER QCMR, June quarter 2026: post-quarter price, 14 August 2026), with registry holdings of 61,200,000 ACCUs (2026-06-30) beside a -22.8 Mt 2027 flow. Read: constructive ACCU, neutral NZU.
Corrections & notes