title: Evening note, 29 September 2026 date: 2026-09-29
AS OF 29 September 2026, 18:05, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are today's close, marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Mark: EUR 85.95, 2026-09-29, Most liquid futures settlement, -0.3 vs prior same-basis mark. Primary print: EUR 84.87, 2026-09-29, Latest EEX auction clearing price.
What moved: A quiet session, the Dec26 settle easing -0.3, with the day's auction clearing a little under the futures settle.
Why: No EU instrument advanced today. The Council's negotiating mandate on the Market Stability Reserve, agreed last week, would suspend invalidation of reserve holdings and reset the threshold at the turn of the decade, but it is a mandate for trilogue, not law, and the rows carry the Directive as it stands.
Desk view: Constructive on structure: the rows show the surplus narrowing and flipping to deficit in 2029. A sub-one-percent session changes nothing.
Mark: GBP 61.86, 2026-09-29, Most liquid futures settlement, 4.9 vs prior same-basis mark. Primary print: GBP 59.34, 2026-08-31, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table, a monthly average and a different basis from the futures settle.
What moved: The largest move on the board, 4.9 on the session.
Why: No dated UK instrument carried the session. The standing frame is linkage plus a tightening cap under SI 2020/1265 Table B as amended by SI 2026/392, in force since the start of July, with the maritime extension now inside scope.
Desk view: Constructive, and the expression is the differential rather than outright: UKA sits at -16.1 to EUA in common currency at Dec26, narrowing to -13.8 by Dec28.
Mark: USD 32.01, 2026-09-29, Most liquid futures settlement, 0.7. Primary print: USD 32.48, 2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price.
What moved: Firmer by 0.7, the mark still a touch under the August auction clearing.
Why: The amended Table 6-2 took effect at the start of September and removes budget allowances across 2027 to 2030; the Manufacturing Decarbonization Incentive account is a separate mechanism with its own allocation window, not a redirection of that removal. Set against 1,179,243,461 allowances of holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted at 2026-07-02.
Desk view: Long-biased on structure, deficit throughout and deepening, with WA linkage the standing catalyst.
Mark: USD 38.75, 2026-09-29, Most liquid futures settlement, 0.0. Primary print: USD 39.50, 2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement.
What moved: Unchanged on the session, the only flat mark on the board.
Why: The market sat on its hands ahead of tomorrow's APCR sale. Ecology's adopted Table 210-1 was signed and filed in September and takes effect next month, with 2029 and 2030 to be recalculated upon linkage.
Desk view: Tight rows, hold. The fixed tier prices in Ecology publication 26-14-072 both sit well above tonight's mark, so tomorrow is a supply event, not a price signal.
Mark: USD 41.64, 2026-09-29, Most liquid futures settlement, 4.0. Primary print: USD 37.65, 2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price. The mark stands materially above that clearing: secondary repricing since the auction, not a basis question.
What moved: Up 4.0, second only to UKA.
Why: No single dated catalyst printed today. On the policy file, New Jersey's DEP and BPU will hold a joint hearing on RGGI allowance prices in mid-October, and DEP's proposed amendments to the state CO2 Budget Trading Program rules, establishing participation consistent with the updated Model Rule, were published in the New Jersey Register in September.
Desk view: Long-biased. The 2027 one-year flow is -9.8 against a stock of 55,000,000 short tons (surplus allowances in circulation, 2026-06-30), so drawdown pace is the trade. The 2026 CCR was fully depleted at the March auction and the monitor treats all remaining CCR allowances as sold within CP6: a spent lever. Virginia's participation resumed on the first of July, and its second-half volumes are offered beginning with Auction 73, spread across the September and December sales.
Last print: NZD 52.00, 2026-09-17, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks). Stale against a seven-day cadence, so no delta is quoted.
What moved: Nothing on the desk's tape.
Why: The September quarterly auction drew no bids and did not clear, the third failure of the year, with the unsold units rolled to the December sale.
Desk view: The rows carry the zero-clearing case, which is a stress case that has now occurred three times. The desk makes it the base case for December absent an MfE settings decision.
Last print: AUD 39.03, 2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot (CER QCMR, June quarter 2026: post-quarter price, 14 August 2026, a quarterly regulator print past its cadence, not a current mark.
What moved: No fresh mark.
Why: The series prints quarterly and no citable secondary is available to this desk.
Desk view: Structurally tight on the legislated Safeguard baseline decline; unsized without a current mark.
Administered price: CAD 95.00, 2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement (15 May 2026. No citable secondary mark: the available feed carries no open-interest data, so no reference contract can be determined.
What moved: Nothing; this is a scheduled policy price, not a market print.
Why: The Implementation Agreement sets the annual headline schedule to 2040.
Desk view: The live item is the credit price floor regulation Alberta is to enact before year-end, which fixes the grandfathering cutoff for credits generated beforehand.
Last print: CAD 172.00, 2026-08-31, Monthly average credit transfer price, a monthly average, not a session mark.
What moved: No fresh mark tonight.
Why: Monthly cadence.
Desk view: Neutral pending the next monthly print.
Credit print: USD 83.77, week of 2026-09-14, posted by CARB 2026-09-22, range 74.00 to 85.25. RIN prints on the tape are flagged stale and are historic, not current marks.
What moved: The weekly volume-weighted credit price printed above each of the four prior weekly prints the desk holds.
Why: The renewable diesel margin channel is the supply-side decision variable: 114.89 Brent and 96.41 WTI against 4.992 Gulf Coast ULSD, EIA spot, 2026-09-22. Direction only; no number is claimed from this channel.
Desk view: Constructive on credits into a bank that drew down in 2026Q1, the latest quarter published.
RECs: not covered this edition. VCM: not covered this edition.
Washington's APCR Auction #8 is tomorrow, a Wednesday, offering Tier 1 and Tier 2 allowances at the fixed prices set in Ecology publication 26-14-072; results are the first read on whether compliance demand reaches above the secondary market. CARB's weekly LCFS credit transfer report was due on the desk's calendar today and no week later than 2026-09-14 is on the tape tonight; it will be carried when it posts on CARB's own cadence. The CFTC Commitments of Traders release later this week is the positioning check on the carbon complex after today's UKA and RGGI moves, both of which ran without a named catalyst and are therefore flow until proven otherwise. Into mid-October, New Jersey's joint hearing on allowance prices is the RGGI item the desk carries forward.
Corrections & notes