AS OF 29 September 2026, 06:00, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the 2026-09-28 close (prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Washington (WCA). Mark: USD 38.75, 2026-09-28, Most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), carried from the prior session; primary print USD 39.50, 2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement.
What moved: 0.9 on the session. APCR Auction #8 is tomorrow, offering allowances at Tier 1 $65.26 and Tier 2 $83.84 (Ecology publication 26-14-072).
Why: Ecology's adopted Table 210-1 (Ecology publication Ecology-WAC-173-446-Adopted-Text-2026-09-23) sets 2027 supply at 47.3 against demand 56.7, a one-year flow balance of -9.4; the desk holds no bank or holdings series for Washington, so what sits beside that flow is the adopted budget table and the reserve tranches, not a stock.
Desk view: Neutral into the sale. Tier 1 sits well clear of the futures mark, so a subscription there would be a genuine surprise; an undersubscribed reserve is the base case and is not bearish information. Why the desk differs from the curve: the curve measures Washington standalone, and standalone is not the book that clears. The linkage rule is adopted and not yet in effect; when it is, it does two things at once - it prices the two markets toward convergence, and it pools Washington's tight position into a combined balance looser than Washington's own. A tightening standalone curve and a neutral-into-the-sale view are about different books, and both hold.
California-Quebec (CCA). Mark: USD 31.79, 2026-09-28, Most liquid futures settlement; primary print USD 32.48, 2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price.
What moved: 0.3. No fresh Californian or Quebec regulatory development in the past day.
Why: The amended Table 6-2 removal of 118.3 Mt across 2027-2030 is in force, taking 2027 supply to 273.4 against demand 300.4; that one-year flow is -27.0, set against 1,179,243,461 allowances of holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted at 2026-07-02.
Desk view: Constructive but unsized on that stock, which is large enough to absorb several years of the deficit before scarcity binds. Judgment, not fact.
RGGI (RGA). Mark: USD 40.02, 2026-09-28, Most liquid futures settlement; primary print USD 37.65, 2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price.
What moved: 1.0, the firmest of the North American complex overnight. The Dec26 mark stands above the Auction 73 clearing; we read that spread as repricing since the auction, not a data question.
Why: 2027 supply 69.8 against demand 79.6 gives a one-year flow of -9.8, against 55,000,000 short tons of surplus allowances in circulation at 2026-06-30. The 2026 CCR was triggered and fully depleted at Auction 71 (Potomac Economics, publication Auction_71_Market_Monitor_Report), so the soft ceiling is a spent lever. As standing context, EPA's partial repeal of the Carbon Pollution Standards was signed September 14, 2026 and is effective November 16, 2026, with a supplemental proposal on the remaining standards still at proposal stage.
Desk view: Constructive. Federal retreat leaves the regional cap as the binding instrument, and bank drawdown pace is the trade.
Alberta TIER. Primary print: CAD 95.00, 2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement (15 May 2026. No tradeable futures mark is held.
What moved: Nothing new in the past day on the TIER instrument itself.
Why: The headline schedule is administered, not cleared; registered Alberta market tracking (15 September) has credits trading above $27. The live item is Alberta's commitment to enact the credit price floor regulation by the end of this year, with credits generated before enactment grandfathered.
Desk view: Neutral on the headline price, constructive on pre-enactment vintages; the desk holds no stock figure for TIER.
CARB's weekly credit transfer report is due today on its stated cadence. The most recent print is USD 83.77 for the week of 2026-09-14, posted 2026-09-22, range 74.00 to 85.25, a step up from the prior week. On the credit-supply channel: the renewable-diesel margin is diesel less feedstock, and with Brent at 114.89, WTI at 96.41 and Gulf Coast ULSD at 4.992 (2026-09-22, US EIA spot), the margin leg is firm, which widens generation and is bearish credits at the margin. Against that, 2026Q1 showed credits 6.93M MT against deficits 9.77M MT with a cumulative bank of 36.86M MT. BC LCFS last printed CAD 172.00, 2026-08-31, Monthly average credit transfer price. Canada's CFR rows remain an index rather than a quantity while ECCC's credit-retirement data is unpublished.
Read: mildly bearish CA LCFS credits on flow, tightening on structure. We are weighting flow this session because the quarterly balance is 182 days past its quarter end and the margin is live.
No new development in the past day. The desk holds a price for 14 of 20 tracked REC rows across 33 RPS jurisdictions, and the vendor-assessed prices behind most classes are not citable.
Read: neutral across California PCC categories, Northeast Class I / Tier 1 and SRECs, because none of the three carries a citable desk price today and a firmness call without one is not a call.
SBTi. No development in the past day. As standing context, Corporate Net-Zero Standard V2.0 was published in June 2026; validations against it open in February 2027, V1.3.1 submissions close in January 2028, and V2.0 becomes mandatory the following month. Read: neutral near term, constructive into 2027 as the demand-side rulebook for credit use settles.
Removals and CORCs. Our monitors flag a large change to the registered Puro Standard General Rules v4.4 document (Puro.earth Oy, publication Puro-Standard-General-Rules-v4-4), too large for a word-level diff and not yet assessed. Read: neutral pending the diff; General Rules versioning is the CCP-eligibility gate for CORC vintages, so a rules cutover is a supply-eligibility event, not a price event, until the text is read.
Article 6 / GCC. Nothing new in the past day; standing read unchanged.
EU ETS (EUA). Mark: EUR 86.17, 2026-09-28, Most liquid futures settlement; primary print EUR 84.87, 2026-09-29, Latest EEX auction clearing price.
What moved: -0.7. Today's auction clearing is the freshest primary on the tape.
Why: 2027 supply 1101.4 against demand 987.7 leaves a one-year surplus of 113.7, flipping to -28.9 in 2029, against a TNAC of 1,023,494,202 allowances at 2025-12-31, which sits in the intake band: the MSR is absorbing, not releasing. As standing context, the Council's negotiating mandate of last week (Council of the European Union (General Secretariat), publication Council-MSR-Mandate-ST-13517-2026-INIT) would suspend invalidation above 400 million and set a 800 million threshold from 2031. That is a mandate for trilogue, not law.
Desk view: Constructive, with the front end supported by the surrender deadline approaching and by MSR intake.
UK ETS (UKA). Mark: GBP 58.96, 2026-09-28, Most liquid futures settlement; primary print GBP 59.34, 2026-08-31, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table.
What moved: -0.8. The Dec26 differential to EUA in common currency is -20.2.
Why: 2027 supply 72.3 against demand 75.0 gives -2.7 for that year; no holdings or bank series is published for the UK ETS, so what the desk holds beside the flow is the allocation table and the registry's Compliance Report, which carry emissions and surrenders rather than a stock.
Desk view: Constructive on the differential narrowing through the curve, neutral outright.
Other jurisdictions. New Zealand's September auction failed with 10,400,000 units unsold and rolled to the December sale, the third 2026 auction to fail; the last NZU print is NZD 52.00, 2026-09-17, 12 days old against a 7-day cadence, so it is a last print rather than a mark, and no delta is quoted against it. The desk's base case for December is another no-clear below the floor. Australia last printed AUD 39.03, 2026-08-14, against registry holdings of 61,200,000 ACCUs at 2026-06-30.
Corrections & notes