AS OF 30 September 2026, 18:05, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are today's close, marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Mark EUR 85.09, 2026-09-30, Most liquid futures settlement. Primary print EUR 84.41, 2026-09-30, Latest EEX auction clearing price.
What moved: The Dec26 settle closed -1.0 against the prior same-basis mark, and it sits close to today's auction clearing, with no material spread between the two to read.
Why: Today is the surrender date for the prior year's emissions under the EU ETS; no outcome from it is registered on this desk tonight. The Council's 23 September negotiating mandate on the Market Stability Reserve is a mandate for trilogue, not law, and the forward rows carry the Directive as it stands; at the published TNAC the reserve is taking in, not releasing.
Desk view: Constructive on the structure. The rows show a narrowing surplus that flips to deficit in 2029, and a single soft session does not touch that.
Mark GBP 61.41, 2026-09-30, Most liquid futures settlement. Last print GBP 59.34, 2026-08-31, official monthly average on the CCM table, a monthly cadence rather than a session mark.
What moved: UKA settled -0.7 on the session, and the Dec26 contract sits -15.8 against EUA in common currency on the ECB reference rate the method states.
Why: No new UK instrument today. The discount narrows along the curve to -13.3 at Dec28, consistent with the standing linkage view the desk has carried since August, which was not re-verified today.
Desk view: We stay with the narrowing differential rather than the outright, against rows that run in deficit throughout.
Mark USD 32.25, 2026-09-30, Most liquid futures settlement. Primary print USD 32.48, 2026-08-19, Auction 48 current-vintage settlement.
What moved: Dec26 closed 0.7, near the August clearing, no material spread.
Why: The amended Table 6-2, effective at the start of September, removed allowances from the 2027 to 2030 budgets; the Quebec leg is unchanged. Set against 1,179,243,461 allowances of holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted at 2026-07-02.
Desk view: Deficit throughout and deepening, biased high on supply because offset retirements are not deducted. Constructive.
Mark USD 38.75, 2026-09-30, Most liquid futures settlement. Primary print USD 39.50, 2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement.
What moved: Flat, 0.0 on the session.
Why: APCR Auction #8 was held today, per Ecology publication 26-14-072; the result is not yet registered here. Both fixed tiers sit well above the futures mark and Tier 2 had none offered, so the reserve is not a live cap at these levels. Ecology's adopted Table 210-1 is now the supply ladder, with 2029 and 2030 re-rowing upon linkage per the table's own footnote.
Desk view: Constructive into the deficit rows, unsized until the auction result prints.
Mark USD 42.23, 2026-09-30, Most liquid futures settlement. Primary print USD 37.65, 2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price.
What moved: The session's largest mover, 1.4, and the Dec26 mark stands materially above the 9 September clearing: secondary repricing since the auction, not a basis question.
Why: The standing frame carries it. The CCR was triggered at Auction 71 in March, over 7.8 million allowances sold and the 2026 reserve fully depleted, so it is a spent lever rather than a dormant one. Virginia's participation resumed on 1 July 2026 and Auction 73 was its first allowance offering since, with the H2 volume spread across the September and December auctions; Virginia legislators reviewed allowance prices on 21 September, with a commentator attributing the level to ambition, demand growth, Virginia's return and rapid electricity demand including data centres, reported 24 September.
Desk view: Long structurally. Rows are in deficit from 2027 and deepen, and the stock beside that flow is the market monitor's surplus of allowances in circulation at end Q2 2026, projected lower by the CP6 deadline; drawdown pace, not any single year, is the trade.
Last print NZD 52.00, 2026-09-17, secondary spot. That is a last print, not a mark, and no delta is quoted against it.
What moved: Nothing on this tape today.
Why: The 8 September quarterly auction drew no bids and did not clear, with the full offer rolled to the December auction; it was the third 2026 auction to fail.
Desk view: The rows run the zero-auction-supply stress case, which is the stress case and not the central case; the cleared-at-floor case is the alternative. After three failures we carry the no-clear case as base into December, explicitly.
No fresh mark. Last print AUD 39.03, 2026-08-14, the CER quarterly post-quarter generic spot.
What moved: No citable mark today; secondary assessments are not available to quote.
Why: Quarterly cadence, not a session instrument.
Desk view: Constructive on the legislated baseline decline, unsized on price.
Administered price CAD 95.00, 2026-05-15, the headline TIER price for 2026 stated in the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement. No reference contract can be determined for the traded leg, so there is no citable market mark.
What moved: Nothing; the headline price is administered.
Why: The live item is the credit price floor regulation Alberta is to enact by the end of this year, with credits generated before enactment grandfathered.
Desk view: Enactment timing, not 2030, is what prices the credit stack now.
Last print CAD 172.00, 2026-08-31, monthly average credit transfer price.
What moved: Monthly basis, no session move.
Why: No new BC instrument today.
Desk view: Neutral pending the next monthly print.
CARB weekly LCFS credit transfer price USD 79.90, week of 2026-09-21, posted 2026-09-29, range 56.00 to 86.00. RINs: no fresh mark; the last EPA EMTS weekly averages are 37 days old and are not quoted here.
What moved: The new weekly average is broadly unchanged against the prior weekly prints the tape carries.
Why: The renewable-diesel margin channel, diesel less feedstock, carries ULSD Gulf Coast 4.992 $/GAL, Brent 114.89 and WTI 96.41, EIA spot, 2026-09-22; it is direction-only and no number is claimed from it.
Desk view: Structure leads: the 2026Q1 quarterly balance, published at the end of July, had deficits exceeding credits against a cumulative bank, and the lean follows that rather than the unsized flow channel.
RECs: not covered this edition. VCM: not covered this edition.
Thursday 1 October is a trading day with no auction on the desk's calendar. Two results stay open and are carried until they print: Washington's APCR Auction #8, held today, and the EU surrender-date outcome, neither registered tonight. Friday brings the CFTC Commitments of Traders for positioning in the carbon complex, and CARB's weekly LCFS credit transfer report is next on the calendar for Tuesday.
Corrections & notes