AS OF 30 September 2026, 06:00, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the 2026-09-29 close (prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
California-Quebec (CCA). Mark USD 32.01, 2026-09-29, Most liquid futures settlement, contract Dec26, 0.7 day over day; carried from the 2026-09-29 session, the same-day settlement file has not reached the desk. Primary print USD 32.48, 2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price.
What moved: Nothing new overnight.
Why: The amended Table 6-2 has been in effect since September 1, 2026, removing 118.3 Mt from the 2027 to 2030 budgets; that is standing context, not news.
Desk view: Constructive. The 2027 flow row is -27.0 Mt against holdings of 1,179,243,461 allowances (holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted, 2026-07-02), so this is a tightening supply path, not scarcity yet.
Washington (WCA). Mark USD 38.75, 2026-09-29, Most liquid futures settlement, contract Dec26, 0.0 day over day, carried from the prior session. Primary print USD 39.50, 2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement.
What moved: APCR Auction #8 is held today, September 30, 2026, Tier 1 at $65.26 and Tier 2 at $83.84 (Ecology publication 26-14-072); no result is registered.
Why: Both tiers sit well above the Dec26 mark, so the reserve is priced as deep out-of-the-money insurance; the adopted Table 210-1 budgets (Ecology publication Ecology-WAC-173-446-Adopted-Text-2026-09-23) take effect next month.
Desk view: Neutral into the sale. The desk holds no bank or holdings series for Washington; what it holds is the adopted budget table, which is not a stock.
RGGI (RGA). Mark USD 41.64, 2026-09-29, Most liquid futures settlement, contract Dec26, 4.0 day over day, carried from the prior session. Primary print USD 37.65, 2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price.
What moved: No new RGGI item overnight. The futures mark stands materially above the Auction 73 clearing; we read that as repricing since the auction on the Third Program Review ladder, not a data question.
Why: The 2026 CCR was triggered at Auction 71, made available at $18.22, and fully depleted; the monitor treats all remaining CCR as sold within CP6.
Desk view: Bullish, sized on the stock. The 2027 flow row is -9.8 million short tons against 55,000,000 short tons of surplus allowances in circulation (2026-06-30); drawdown pace is the trade. As background, EPA's partial repeal of the 2024 power-plant standards was published 17 September and is effective November 16, 2026; a virtual hearing on the supplemental proposal is reported for tomorrow (National Law Review, unconfirmed against the docket).
Alberta TIER. Primary print CAD 95.00, 2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement (15 May 2026.
What moved: No new Alberta TIER development since our last note.
Why: The administered headline schedule governs; the live variable is Alberta's credit-price floor regulation, due to be enacted by the end of this year, whose enactment date fixes the grandfathering cutoff for credits generated before it.
Desk view: Neutral on the headline, constructive on pre-enactment credits. No stock figure is held for TIER; the balance rows are two years behind the price.
CARB's weekly credit transfer print posted 2026-09-29: 79.90 USD per tonne for the week of 2026-09-21, range 56.00 to 86.00. BC's monthly average is CAD 172.00, 2026-08-31. No citable Canada CFR credit mark is held; those rows are an index.
What moved: Our renewable-diesel margin channel turned down from mixed, with legs Brent 114.89 $/BBL, WTI 96.41 and ULSD Gulf Coast 4.992 (US EIA, 2026-09-22).
Why: A compressing diesel-less-feedstock margin slows renewable-diesel volume into California and therefore credit generation, against a bank that drew down in 2026Q1 (credits 6.93M MT versus deficits 9.77M MT, cumulative bank 36.86M MT, quarter ended 2026-03-31).
Desk view: Constructive but unhurried. Flow and structure agree here, and the print has sat within a dollar of 80 for four consecutive weekly reports, so we want length via time rather than chase.
No fresh REC development in the last 24 hours. The desk tracks 33 RPS jurisdictions and holds a sourced traded price for 14 of them, so no firmness call is made on classes whose only prices are uncitable.
SBTi. Standing context: Corporate Net-Zero Standard V2.0 was published in June 2026, with validations against it opening from early 2027 and interpretation and interim guidance on market instruments expected in Q4 2026. Read: neutral near term, bullish durable removals once the implementation hierarchy guidance lands, because the hierarchy is what converts target language into procurement.
Removals and CORCs. Our monitors flag a change in the Puro Standard General Rules, whose current edition is Version 4.4, approved 07 May 2026. No CORC price is held, so no directional call.
Article 6 and Global Carbon Council. Nothing the desk holds a primary for this morning.
EU ETS. Mark EUR 85.95, 2026-09-29, Most liquid futures settlement, contract Dec26, -0.3 day over day, carried from the prior session. Primary print EUR 84.41, 2026-09-30, Latest EEX auction clearing price.
What moved: Today is the surrender date for the prior year's emissions; no result is registered. The Council agreed its MSR negotiating mandate on 23 September 2026, suspending invalidation above 400 million and setting 800 million from 2031 (Council press release); it is a mandate for trilogue, not law. Separately, reporting today has Italy and the Czech Republic pressing to delay the ETS2 start while six member states object.
Why: TNAC of 1,023,494,202 allowances (total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC), 2025-12-31) sits in the intake band, so the reserve is absorbing, not releasing; the 2027 flow row is 113.7 Mt and flips negative by 2029.
Desk view: Bullish EUAs on structure, with ETS2 politics a headline risk to sentiment rather than to ETS1 supply.
UK ETS. Mark GBP 61.86, 2026-09-29, Most liquid futures settlement, contract Dec26, 4.9 day over day, carried from the prior session. Primary print GBP 59.34, 2026-08-31, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table. Dec26 trades -16.0 against EUAs in common currency.
Desk view: Constructive on the discount narrowing into linkage; no holdings series is published for the UK, so the read is sized on the -2.7 Mt 2027 flow alone, which is not a stock.
Other jurisdictions. New Zealand's 8 September auction failed: 10,400,000 units offered, 10,400,000 unsold, rolled to December, the third 2026 failure. Last NZU print NZD 52.00, 2026-09-17, 13 days old against a 7-day cadence, so a last print rather than a mark. Australia: AUD 39.03, 2026-08-14, with registry holdings of 61,200,000 ACCUs (2026-06-30).
Corrections & notes