AS OF 1 October 2026, 18:51, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are today's close, marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Mark EUR 85.64 (2026-10-01, Most liquid futures settlement), 0.6 on the day; primary print EUR 84.70 (2026-10-01, Latest EEX auction clearing price).
What moved: A small gain, with the Dec26 settle sitting modestly above the same-day auction clearing, a spread too narrow to read anything into.
Why: Carbon Pulse reported EUAs ending the session modestly higher, snapping a four-day losing streak in a thin market, with buying after the daily auction. Separately, negotiations on the Commission's proposed review of the EU ETS began in the European Parliament today; that instrument remains a proposal, and the Council's September MSR mandate is a mandate for trilogue, not law.
Desk view: Constructive. The rows carry a narrowing surplus flipping to deficit in 2029, so policy noise cuts against a tightening structure rather than with it.
Mark GBP 62.19 (2026-10-01, Most liquid futures settlement), 1.3 on the day; last official print GBP 59.34 (2026-08-31, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table), a monthly average and not a session mark.
What moved: The session's largest advance in the complex.
Why: The structural frame is unchanged: deficit rows from the amended Table B schedule including the maritime extension in force since July, with the Dec26 UKA/EUA differential at -15.0 and the strip narrowing out to Dec28.
Desk view: Long bias, carried on convergence plus a deficit curve, with the caveat that the balance rows' last observed year sits two years behind the mark.
Mark USD 32.12 (2026-10-01, Most liquid futures settlement), -0.4 on the day; primary print USD 32.48 (2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price).
What moved: Marginally lower, inside the noise band, and close to the August auction clearing.
Why: No session driver worth naming at this size. The live change is regulatory: the amended Table 6-2 took effect at the start of September, removing 118.3 Mt from the 2027 to 2030 budgets. Set against 1,179,243,461 allowances of holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted at 2026-07-02.
Desk view: Constructive, with deficit rows deepening every year of the strip; the observed demand data is three years behind the price.
Mark USD 38.75 (2026-10-01, Most liquid futures settlement), 0.0 on the day; primary print USD 39.50 (2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement).
What moved: Flat on the session.
Why: APCR Auction #8 was held yesterday at the Tier 1 and Tier 2 fixed prices set in Ecology publication 26-14-072; the summary report is not yet registered here, so no result attaches to it.
Desk view: Constructive into the adopted Table 210-1 budgets, which take effect late this month, with linkage the standing catalyst.
Mark USD 41.01 (2026-10-01, Most liquid futures settlement), -2.9 on the day; primary print USD 37.65 (2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price).
What moved: The day's largest decline, and the mark still stands materially above the September auction clearing, which reads as repricing since the auction rather than a data question.
Why: New Jersey's DEP and BPU have scheduled a joint hearing on RGGI allowance prices and ratepayer relief, covering whether and how allowance prices affect ratepayers and the use of programme proceeds, an October event the desk carries without a registered date.
Desk view: Constructive on structure, patient on entry. Standing facts: the CCR was triggered and fully depleted at the March auction, Virginia's participation resumed at the start of July with its second-half volumes offered beginning with Auction 73 and spread across the September and December sales, and the ten-state cap ladder excludes Virginia until DEQ's alignment in January. Drawdown pace of the circulating surplus reported at end-June, not any single compliance year, is the trade.
Last print NZD 52.00 (2026-09-17, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks)); stale against a weekly cadence, so no delta is quoted and this is a last print, not a mark.
What moved: Nothing marked today.
Why: The September auction failed with no bids and the full offering rolled forward to the December sale, the third 2026 auction to fail.
Desk view: The rows assume zero auction supply below the floor, which is the stress case; the desk now treats a no-clear in December as its base case and says so explicitly.
Last print AUD 39.03 (2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot (CER QCMR, June quarter 2026: post-quarter price, 14 August 2026); no citable futures mark on this tape.
What moved: No fresh mark today.
Why: The print is a quarterly regulator figure, not a session close. Set against 61,200,000 ACCUs of registry holdings excluding the cost containment measure at 2026-06-30.
Desk view: Deficit rows deepening on the legislated baseline decline; the balance picture runs two years behind the price.
Administered price CAD 95.00 (2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement (15 May 2026)); no citable futures mark, pending a determinable reference contract.
What moved: Nothing; this is an administered level, not a traded one.
Why: The Implementation Agreement sets the headline schedule, stepping up next year and again at the end of the decade.
Desk view: The live item is the credit price floor regulation Alberta is to enact by year-end, because enactment fixes the grandfathering cutoff for credits generated before it.
Last print CAD 172.00 (2026-08-31, Monthly average credit transfer price).
What moved: No fresh mark; the September monthly average is due on the monthly cadence and the August average stands until it posts.
Why: Monthly administrative series, not a session instrument.
Desk view: Neutral pending the next monthly print.
CA LCFS credit USD 79.90, week of 2026-09-21, posted 2026-09-29, range 56.00 to 86.00. The D3, D4, D5 and D6 RIN prints on this tape are historic, 38 days old, and are not current marks.
What moved: The weekly LCFS print edged up against the prior reported weeks; the quarterly credit balance read remains first-quarter 2026, published at end-July.
Why: The renewable-diesel margin channel carries Brent 113.96 $/BBL, WTI 96.16 and Gulf Coast ULSD 4.866, EIA spot, 2026-09-29; with no current licensed RIN or feedstock price, the channel is direction-only and unsized this session.
Desk view: Mildly constructive on LCFS credits against a drawing bank, held at low conviction while the flow channel is unsized.
New Jersey's RPS annual compliance report to the BPU, covering the June to May energy year, falls due today; no result is registered here. No price view is taken on REC classes. VCM: not covered this edition.
Tomorrow is a trading day. The CFTC Commitments of Traders release lands, giving the first positioning read across the carbon complex after this week's moves, and it is the one scheduled catalyst on the calendar. Also pending: Ecology's summary report for APCR Auction #8 held yesterday; CARB's next weekly LCFS credit transfer report, due on its Tuesday cadence next week; and the New Jersey RPS filing above. In Europe, Parliament's ETS reform negotiations are now running, and headlines from them are a proposal-stage risk, not a change in law.
Corrections & notes