AS OF 1 October 2026, 06:00, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the 2026-09-30 close (prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
California-Quebec (CCA). Mark: USD 32.25 (2026-09-30, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), 0.7, carried from the prior session. Primary print: USD 32.48 (2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price).
What moved: Nothing new overnight in the instrument; the structural change remains the amended Table 6-2, which removes 118.3 Mt across 2027-2030 (as context, effective September 1, 2026).
Why: The forward rows run -27.0 in 2027 deepening to -84.2 in 2030, each a one-year flow, against held stock of 1,179,243,461 allowances (holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted, 2026-07-02) with the compliance obligation not netted.
Desk view: Constructive, judgment: the flow is short and the stock is large, so this reprices on bank drawdown pace rather than on any single year.
Washington (WCA). Mark: USD 38.75 (2026-09-30, Most liquid futures settlement), 0.0, carried from the prior session. Primary print: USD 39.50 (2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement).
What moved: APCR Auction #8 was held yesterday per Ecology publication 26-14-072, offering Tier 1 at $65.26 and Tier 2 at $83.84; the result is not yet registered here.
Why: The mark sits just under the last quarterly clearing, so the curve is not pricing reserve scarcity; rows are -9.4 in 2027 on the adopted table in Ecology publication Ecology-WAC-173-446-Adopted-Text-2026-09-23. The desk holds no bank or holdings figure for Washington; what it holds is the adopted budget table, which is not a stock.
Desk view: Neutral into the result, judgment: a Tier 1-only sale confirms the linkage discount, not tightness.
RGGI (RGA). Mark: USD 42.23 (2026-09-30, Most liquid futures settlement), 1.4, carried from the prior session. Primary print: USD 37.65 (2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price).
What moved: The federal backbone thinned: the Partial Repeal of the Carbon Pollution Standards for Fossil Fuel-Fired Electric Generating Units is final and effective November 16, 2026, signed by the Administrator on September 14, 2026, with a supplemental proposal to rescind the remaining section 111 standards still open (hearing reported for today, unconfirmed against the desk's register).
Why: The mark stands well above the Auction 73 clearing, a spread the desk reads as post-auction repricing on a spent cost-containment lever: the CCR was triggered at Auction 71 on March 11, 2026 at the trigger of $18.22 and was fully depleted. Rows are -9.8 in 2027 against stock of 55,000,000 short tons (surplus allowances in circulation, 2026-06-30).
Desk view: Constructive, judgment: federal repeal removes a backstop RGGI states were never leaning on, while the bank draws down.
Alberta TIER. Primary print: CAD 95.00 (2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement (15 May 2026). No futures mark is carried.
What moved: No new Alberta development in the last 24 hours.
Why: The headline price is administered on the Implementation Agreement ladder; the live variable is the credit price floor regulation Alberta is to enact by the end of this year, which fixes the grandfathering cutoff.
Desk view: Neutral on the headline, judgment: pre-enactment credits trading below the future floor is the only tradeable in this market today.
California LCFS: USD 79.90, week of 2026-09-21, posted 2026-09-29, range 56.00 to 86.00. BC LCFS: CAD 172.00 (2026-08-31, Monthly average credit transfer price). Oregon and Washington LCFS and the Canada CFR carry no citable mark on the desk's tape; CFR rows remain an index, not a quantity, pending ECCC retirement data.
What moved: OAR 340-253 (Oregon Clean Fuels) shows a document update in the desk's regulatory tracking; substance unreviewed. The weekly California print was the last cadence item, and the next is due on the published weekly cadence.
Why: The renewable-diesel margin channel is the credit-supply variable: Brent 113.96 $/BBL, WTI 96.16 $/BBL and ULSD Gulf Coast 4.866 $/GAL (2026-09-29, US EIA). The desk's RIN prints are historic, not current marks, so the margin read is direction-only.
Desk view: Neutral to firm on California credits, judgment: the 2026Q1 balance was a quarter net deficit with a cumulative bank of 36.86M MT, so bank drawdown is slow and the weekly print has been grinding, not breaking.
No REC price is carried on the tape; the desk holds a sourced traded price for 14 of the 33 RPS programmes tracked.
What moved: New Jersey's RPS annual compliance report to the BPU falls due today on the June-to-May energy year; no result is registered. PJM's Manual 18 (capacity market, RPM) changed on 25 September and is flagged here as the open item, uncovered until the substance is read.
Why: Capacity-market mechanics feed the clean-energy revenue stack ahead of REC demand; power prices, not RPS targets, are what move Northeast Class I clearing in a tight year.
Desk view: Neutral across classes, judgment, and deliberately unsized: solar carve-out and bundled Class I certificates satisfy different obligations and are not averaged here.
SBTi: The Corporate Net-Zero Standard V2.0 was published in June; SBTi Services' transition guidance has validation resources landing today and validations against V2.0 opening on 1 February 2027, with V1.3.1 validations closing in January 2028 (searched, unconfirmed against the desk's register). Read: neutral near-term for credit demand, judgment, because nothing in the sequence creates a buyer before validations open.
Removals: The desk's change detection flags a large revision to Puro Standard General Rules, Version 4.4; substance under review, no price read until the diff is read.
Article 6 and crediting standards: Nothing registered in the last 24 hours. Standing read: supply is gated by host-country authorisation, not by methodology count.
EU ETS (EUA). Mark: EUR 85.09 (2026-09-30, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), -1.0, carried from the prior session. Primary print: EUR 84.70 (2026-10-01, Latest EEX auction clearing price), today's clearing.
What moved: Today's auction clearing is the fresh print and sits just under the carried settle. The Council's MSR negotiating mandate agreed 23 September 2026 would suspend invalidation above 400 million and set 800 million from 2031; it is a mandate for trilogue, not law.
Why: Rows show 113.7 in 2027 flipping to -28.9 by 2029 against TNAC stock of 1,023,494,202 allowances (2025-12-31), which at that level means the reserve is taking in, not releasing.
Desk view: Constructive on the curve, neutral on the session, judgment: the mandate removes a tail risk of mass invalidation but does not add near-term supply.
UK ETS (UKA). Mark: GBP 61.41 (2026-09-30, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), -0.7, carried from the prior session. Primary print: GBP 59.34 (2026-08-31, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table).
What moved: No new UK instrument development overnight. The differential has UKA at -15.6 to EUA on Dec26, narrowing to -13.0 by Dec28.
Why: Rows are -2.7 in 2027 on the amended Table B including the maritime extension; no holdings or bank series is published for this market, so the desk holds the allocation table and the registry's compliance report, neither of which is a stock.
Desk view: Constructive on the spread, not the outright, judgment: linkage convergence is the trade and the front discount is where it pays.
NZ ETS (NZU). Mark: NZD 52.00 (2026-09-17, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks)). This print is dated 17 September and is a last print, not a current level; no delta is quoted against it.
What moved: Nothing overnight. The September auction failed: 10,400,000 units offered, 10,400,000 unsold, rolled to the December sale. Third failure of 2026.
Why: Rows assume auctions clear nothing below the floor, giving -33.8 in 2027; no stock figure is held, only that auction-supply assumption, which is not a stock.
Desk view: The no-clear case is now the desk's base case for December absent an MfE settings change, judgment, with the secondary market the only clearing venue.
Australia (ACCU). Primary print: AUD 39.03 (2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot (CER QCMR, June quarter 2026: post-quarter price, 14 August 2026). No futures mark is carried and the print is from mid-August, so it is a last print, not a current level.
What moved: No new Safeguard development in the last 24 hours.
Why: Rows are -22.8 in 2027 on the legislated baseline decline against registry stock of 61,200,000 ACCUs (registry holdings excluding the cost containment measure, 2026-06-30).
Desk view: Constructive on the structure, unsized on the session, judgment: a large holdings pool sits against a widening shortfall, so timing is the risk, not direction.
Corrections & notes