AS OF 2 October 2026, 19:34, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are today's close, marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Mark: EUR 84.42 per tonne, 2026-10-02, Most liquid futures settlement, -1.4% on the day. Primary print: EUR 85.31, 2026-10-02, Latest EEX auction clearing price.
What moved: The Dec26 contract settled lower on the session, -1.4% against the prior same-basis mark.
Why: The settle finished just over one percent below the German (DE) auction clearing of the same date, which the desk reads as repricing through the afternoon rather than a change in the policy set. The Council's MSR negotiating mandate, agreed 23 September 2026, is a mandate for trilogue, not law, and the rows carry the Directive as it stands.
Desk view: Constructive on structure: the one-year flows run 113.7 Mt in 2027 narrowing to -28.9 Mt in 2029, against a stock of 1,023,494,202 allowances (total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC), 2025-12-31). Today is a flow move inside that structure.
Mark: GBP 60.98 per tonne, 2026-10-02, Most liquid futures settlement, -1.9% on the day. Last print: GBP 59.34, 2026-08-31, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table, a monthly average and not a session mark.
What moved: Dec26 UKAs settled down -1.9%, a larger decline than the EUA leg.
Why: In common currency the Dec26 UKA is EUR 71.43 against the EUA's EUR 84.42, a differential of -15.4%, at the ECB euro reference rate of 1 October.
Desk view: Deficit throughout on the rows, -2.7 Mt in 2027 under SI 2020/1265 Table B as amended by SI 2026/392. No bank or stock figure is held for this market; what is held beside the flow is the registry Compliance Report's emissions and surrenders.
Mark: USD 32.40 per allowance, 2026-10-02, Most liquid futures settlement, 0.9% on the day. Primary print: USD 32.48, 2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price.
What moved: Dec26 V26 firmed 0.9%, leaving the settle close to the Auction 48 clearing.
Why: The amended Table 6-2 took effect September 1, 2026, removing 118.3 Mt from the 2027-2030 budgets.
Desk view: Constructive. The flow is -27.0 Mt in 2027 deepening to -84.2 Mt in 2030, against a stock of 1,179,243,461 allowances (holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted, 2026-07-02).
Mark: USD 39.00 per allowance, 2026-10-02, Most liquid futures settlement, 0.6% on the day. Primary print: USD 39.50, 2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement.
What moved: Dec26 V26 firmed 0.6%, holding just under the Auction #15 settlement.
Why: Auction #16's notice published today and applications opened (ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Summary-of-Expected-Dates-2514100); no result exists for an auction not yet held. APCR Auction #8 offers Tier 1 $65.26 and Tier 2 $83.84 per allowance (Ecology publication 26-14-072), both far above the mark. ECR Auction #1, held 16 September 2026, offered 731,000 allowances and sold 731,000 at $39.50 per allowance, bid-to-cover 2.11 (Ecology publication 26-14-070).
Desk view: Supply of 47.3 Mt in 2027 is the adopted Table 210-1 column; demand of 56.7 Mt in 2027 is a desk estimate. No bank or stock figure is held for this market; the auction and reserve clearing series is what sits beside the flow.
Mark: USD 39.72 per allowance, 2026-10-02, Most liquid futures settlement, -3.1% on the day. Primary print: USD 37.65, 2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price.
What moved: Dec26 V26 fell -3.1%, the largest decline in the complex today. No driver identified.
Why: The settle still stands above the 9 September Auction 73 clearing, a spread the desk reads as repricing since the auction. The 2026 CCR was triggered at Auction 71 and fully depleted at a trigger price of $18.22 per allowance; Virginia first offered allowances since rejoining at Auction 73, participation having resumed 1 July 2026. New Jersey's DEP and BPU have announced a joint hearing on RGGI allowance prices, reported and not registered here.
Desk view: Flow -9.8 Mt in 2027 deepening to -32.9 Mt in 2030 on the ten-state cap basis (69806919 short tons in 2027, Virginia outside it), against a stock of 55,000,000 short tons (surplus allowances in circulation, 2026-06-30). Drawdown pace is the trade; today does not change it.
Last print: NZD 52.00, 2026-09-17, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks), stale against a seven-day cadence, so no delta is quoted.
What moved: Nothing on our tape.
Why: The 8 September auction failed: 10,400,000 units offered, of which 6.5 million were reserve units released only above the trigger price; 10,400,000 unsold, rolled to the 1 December 2026 auction. Third 2026 auction to fail.
Desk view: Rows carry the zero-auction-supply stress case, -33.8 Mt in 2027; the desk takes no-clear as the base case for December. No bank or stock figure is held; the auction results series is what is held beside the flow.
Last print: AUD 39.03, 2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot (CER QCMR, June quarter 2026: post-quarter price, 14 August 2026.
What moved: No fresh mark today.
Why: The quarterly print is the cadence; nothing between quarters.
Desk view: Flow -22.8 Mt in 2027 against registry holdings of 61,200,000 ACCUs (registry holdings excluding the cost containment measure, 2026-06-30).
Administered price: CAD 95.00 per tonne, 2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement (15 May 2026.
What moved: Nothing; this is a scheduled policy price, not a traded mark.
Why: Alberta intends to enact the price floor regulation by 31 December 2026 (s.1.2.3.4), and that enactment fixes the grandfathering cutoff for credits generated before it.
Desk view: No bank or stock figure is held for this market; what is held beside it is the headline price schedule to 2040.
Last print: CAD 172.00 per credit, 2026-08-31, Monthly average credit transfer price.
What moved: No fresh mark; the series is monthly.
Why: Nothing new between monthly transfer reports.
Desk view: No bank or stock figure is held for this market; the monthly credit transfer print is what is held beside the flow.
CARB weekly average: USD 79.90 per credit, week of 2026-09-21, posted 2026-09-29, range 56.00 to 86.00.
What moved: CARB's weekly average fell from 83.77 (week of 14 September) to 79.90 USD (week of 2026-09-21), -4.6 percent.
Why: The renewable-diesel margin channel reads off Brent 113.96 $/BBL, WTI 96.16 $/BBL and Gulf Coast ULSD 4.866 $/GAL (EIA spot, 2026-09-29): firmer crude widens the margin, lifts RD volume and credit supply, which is bearish credits. Direction only; the desk's RIN prints are historic (24 August 2026) and support no statement about today.
Desk view: The 2026Q1 balance was credits 6.93M MT against deficits 9.77M MT, cumulative bank 36.86M MT, quarter ended 31 March 2026. Bearish bias on the flow channel, unsized against that bank until the next quarterly lands.
RECs: not covered this edition. VCM: not covered this edition.
CARB's weekly LCFS credit transfer report, 6 October 2026. WA APCR Auction #8 summary report is due 7 October 2026 per ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Reserve-Auction-Potential-Dates-2514101. CFTC Commitments of Traders, 9 October 2026; today's release is out and no positioning figures are carried on this tape. WA APCR November application period closes 19 October 2026 and WA Auction #16 applications close 2 November 2026 (ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Summary-of-Expected-Dates-2514100). NZ's next scheduled auction is 1 December 2026.
Correction issued 2026-10-02
Correction: Washington 2027 demand of 56.7 Mt is a desk estimate, not a figure from Ecology's adopted budget table: The 2 October morning note attributed Washington 2027 demand of 56.7 Mt to Ecology's adopted budget table. Read the full correction
Corrections & notes