AS OF 2 October 2026, 06:00, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the 2026-10-01 close (prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
California-Quebec (CCA). Mark USD 32.12 (2026-10-01, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), -0.4%, carried from the prior session; primary print USD 32.48 (2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price).
What moved: Nothing new overnight on our monitors; the amended Table 6-2 removal, 118.3 million tonnes of current-vintage MDI pool sized alongside it, is standing context from the September effective date.
Why: The forward rows carry a 2027 flow balance of -27.0 deepening to -84.2, against a held stock of 1,179,243,461 allowances (holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted, 2026-07-02), so this is a tightening flow sitting on a very large account balance.
Desk view: Constructive but unsized on the stock, judgment: the deficit curve is real, the bank is why the front stays heavy.
Washington (WCA). Mark USD 38.75 (2026-10-01, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), 0.0%, carried; primary print USD 39.50 (2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement). The futures mark sits a little below that clearing, a narrow spread rather than a repricing.
What moved: APCR Auction #8 was held on September 30, 2026 at Tier 1 $65.26 and Tier 2 $83.84 per Ecology publication 26-14-072; no summary report has reached our tape as of this morning.
Why: Rows are deficit from -9.4 to -19.4 on the adopted Table 210-1 column; the desk holds no stock or bank series for Washington, only the auction record, which is a flow and not a stock.
Desk view: Neutral into the report, judgment: tier-price sales tell you about the ceiling, not the curve.
RGGI (RGA). Mark USD 41.01 (2026-10-01, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), -2.9%, carried; primary print USD 37.65 (2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing). The futures mark stands above the September clearing, which reads as repricing since the auction rather than a data question.
What moved: No new RGGI item in the last day. Standing: the CCR was triggered at Auction 71 and fully depleted, the 2026 trigger price being $18.22; Virginia's Auction 73 proceeds were USD 259.3 million.
Why: Flow rows show -9.8 in 2027 deepening to -32.9, against 55,000,000 short tons (surplus allowances in circulation, 2026-06-30).
Desk view: Bullish on drawdown pace, judgment: with the reserve spent, the surplus is the only cushion left.
Alberta TIER. Print CAD 95.00 (2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement (15 May 2026); an administered headline price, not a traded level.
What moved: No Alberta development in the last day.
Why: The schedule is fixed through the decade by the Implementation Agreement; the live variable is the credit price floor regulation Alberta is to enact before year-end, which fixes the grandfathering cutoff for credits generated earlier. No stock figure is held here.
Desk view: Neutral on headline, judgment: pre-enactment credit vintages are the asymmetry.
CA LCFS credit USD 79.90, week of 2026-09-21, posted 2026-09-29, range 56.00 to 86.00. BC LCFS CAD 172.00 (2026-08-31, Monthly average credit transfer price). Oregon and Washington LCFS carry no citable mark on our tape; the Canada CFR rows are an index, absolute volumes awaiting ECCC's credit-retirement publication.
What moved: Our regulatory tracker logged a text change to Oregon's Clean Fuels rule overnight; a small delta with no substance confirmed, so we do not trade it.
Why: The renewable-diesel margin channel is diesel less feedstock: ULSD Gulf Coast 4.866 $/GAL, Brent 113.96 and WTI 96.16 (2026-09-29, US EIA spot). The 2026Q1 California balance was credits 6.93M MT against deficits 9.77M MT, bank 36.86M MT, a quarter now well behind us.
Desk view: Neutral to firm on CA LCFS, judgment: the weekly print has ground higher for five consecutive weeks on our record, and the next report is due on CARB's cadence this week. Our RIN prints are historic, not current marks, so no RIN-based read is offered.
The desk holds priced REC rows for 14 states across 33 tracked RPS jurisdictions; no new REC development in the last day and no fresh citable traded price.
What moved: Nothing.
Why: Classes satisfy different obligations and do not average.
Desk view: No firmness call without a citable price; see the outlook for the per-market lean.
What moved: No new SBTi item. As context, Corporate Net-Zero Standard v2.0 published in June, with validations opening against V2.0 on 1 February 2027 per SBTi Services transition guidance held by the desk. On removals, our tracker flags a large change to the Puro Standard General Rules document (Puro.earth Oy, publication Puro-Standard-General-Rules-v4-4), unreviewed. On Article 6 and the Global Carbon Council, the desk holds no new primary.
Why: As context, Verra launched Version 1.0 of its Scope 3 Standard Program on 15 September 2026 , and the program is designed to be compatible with SBTi's evolving rules on the use of projects and market instruments (Verra).
Desk view: Neutral, judgment: in-value-chain units compete with credits for the same budget, and nothing prices before February 2027.
EU ETS (EUA). Mark EUR 85.64 (2026-10-01, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), 0.6%, carried; primary print EUR 85.31 (2026-10-02, latest EEX auction clearing).
What moved: No new EU item overnight; the Council's MSR negotiating mandate of 23 September 2026 remains a mandate for trilogue, not law.
Why: Rows run 113.7 in 2027 to -100.5, flipping to deficit in 2029; TNAC 1,023,494,202 (total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC), 2025-12-31) sits in the intake band, so the reserve is absorbing, not releasing.
Desk view: Constructive, judgment: intake plus a narrowing surplus is the structural bid.
UK ETS (UKA). Mark GBP 62.19 (2026-10-01, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), 1.3%, carried; primary print GBP 59.34 (2026-08-31, official monthly average, Dec futures).
What moved: Nothing new; the Dec26 differential to EUA is -14.9% in common currency.
Why: Rows deficit from -2.7; no holdings or bank series is published for the UK ETS, so the registry's emissions and surrenders are what the desk holds, and those are not a stock.
Desk view: Mildly constructive on the discount, judgment: linkage talk is the only thing that closes it.
NZ ETS (NZU). Mark NZD 52.00 (2026-09-17, secondary spot). That print is 15 days old against a seven-day cadence: it is a last print, not a current level, and no delta is quoted against it.
What moved: As context, the September auction failed, 10,400,000 units unsold and rolled to December, the third 2026 failure.
Why: Rows show -33.8 on the assumption auctions clear nothing below the floor; no stock figure is held.
Desk view: The no-clear case is now our base case for December, judgment, not fact.
Australia (ACCU). Print AUD 39.03 (2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot (CER QCMR, June quarter 2026: post-quarter price, 14 August 2026); no futures mark on our tape.
What moved: Nothing the desk holds a primary for.
Why: Rows run -22.8 to -34.4 against registry holdings of 61,200,000 ACCUs (registry holdings excluding the cost containment measure, 2026-06-30).
Desk view: Neutral, judgment: holdings cover several years of the stated shortfall.
Corrections & notes