AS OF 5 October 2026, 06:10, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the latest settlement held, dated on each line (session of 2026-10-02, a prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
We last published on 2 October. Every futures mark below is carried from that same 2026-10-02 session, so we have no marked level for the gap window: the moves quoted are that session's, not three-day changes.
California-Quebec (CCA). Mark: USD 32.40 (2026-10-02, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), carried from the prior session; primary print USD 32.48 (2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price).
What moved: Session move 0.9%; no driver identified.
Why: The amended Table 6-2 removal of 118.3 Mt across 2027-2030 is in force and the forward rows run in deficit from 2027 at -27.0 Mt (2027), against holdings of 1,179,243,461 allowances (holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted, 2026-07-02), compliance obligation not netted.
Desk view: Constructive but unhurried; the bank is large enough that scarcity is a 2027-28 story, not an October one.
Washington (WCA). Mark: USD 39.00 (2026-10-02, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), carried; primary print USD 39.50 (2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement).
What moved: Session move 0.6%. APCR Auction #8 was held on 30 September at Tier 1 $65.26 and Tier 2 $83.84 (Ecology publication 26-14-072); the summary report is due 7 October per ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Reserve-Auction-Potential-Dates-2514101.
Why: The adopted budget table (Ecology publication Ecology-WAC-173-446-Adopted-Text-2026-09-23) puts the rows in deficit from 2027 at -9.4 Mt (2027); the desk holds no stock or bank series for Washington, only the adopted budget column.
Desk view: Near term up in physical and spot terms into the 2 November annual compliance deadline, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, and that is not a call on the December contract the tape marks. Next year down, because linkage pools Washington into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own. Why the desk differs from the curve: near term, the desk expects Washington prices higher into compliance - in physical terms, into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, not in the December contract the tape marks - in line with the tightening standalone curve; for next year the desk expects them lower, because once linkage takes effect Washington is pooled into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own, which the standalone curve does not measure.
RGGI (RGA). Mark: USD 39.72 (2026-10-02, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), carried; primary print USD 37.65 (2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price).
What moved: Session move -3.1%, the largest on the board. Driver: the federal power-sector repeal file, with a petition for review of the partial repeal registered 1 October (coag.gov publication COAG-Petition-for-Review-CPS-Partial-Repeal-2026-10-01) against the rule Administrator Zeldin signed on September 14, 2026. No driver identified.
Why: Rows run -9.8 Mt (2027) million short tons (2027) against a surplus of 55,000,000 short tons (surplus allowances in circulation, 2026-06-30); drawdown pace is the trade. The 2026 CCR was triggered and fully depleted at Auction 71, held on March 11, 2026, so the soft ceiling is a spent lever.
Desk view: Bullish on the structure, neutral tactically: litigation risk cuts both ways and the NJ BPU and NJDEP joint hearing on 15 October is the next headline event.
Alberta TIER. Print: CAD 95.00 (2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement of 15 May 2026). No citable futures mark.
What moved: Nothing new in the gap window.
Why: The headline schedule is administered, not traded; the live item remains Alberta's credit price floor regulation, to be enacted by 31 December 2026, with pre-enactment credits grandfathered.
Desk view: Neutral on the headline price, constructive on post-enactment credits.
CA LCFS. USD 79.90, CARB weekly volume-weighted average for the week of 2026-09-21, posted 2026-09-29, range 56.00 to 86.00; prior week 83.77 (2026-09-14), -4.6%.
What moved: Little. The next weekly report is on the calendar for tomorrow.
Why: The renewable-diesel margin channel sits with Brent 113.96 $/BBL, WTI 96.16 $/BBL and ULSD Gulf Coast 4.866 $/GAL (US EIA, 2026-09-29): firm crude widens the margin, lifts RD generation and is bearish credits. The 2026Q1 balance showed credits 6.93 against deficits 9.77 million MT, bank 36.86 million MT, and is not current.
Desk view: Neutral to mildly soft; flow says bearish, the quarterly net draw says tightening, and we weight flow this week because the bank is still large.
Canada CFR and BC LCFS. BC print: CAD 172.00 (2026-08-31, Monthly average credit transfer price). CFR carries no citable price mark and no stock figure; ECCC's credit-retirement data is unpublished, which is why our CFR rows are an index rather than a quantity.
What moved: Regulatory text updates to the Clean Fuel Regulations and to Oregon's clean fuels rules were detected in the window; we read them as administrative until a second source shows substance.
Desk view: Neutral on both.
No new REC development in the gap window. We hold RPS programmes across 33 jurisdictions and a sourced traded price in only 14, so class-level firmness calls are unsupported. PJM Operating Agreement and Reliability Assurance Agreement updates on 21 to 25 September remain uncovered by any note: grid-tariff churn, monitored, with no REC price read attached.
SBTi: no movement in the window. As context, the Corporate Net-Zero Standard v2.0 was published on 11 June 2026; validations against V2.0 open 1 February 2027 and the standard becomes mandatory 1 February 2028. Removals: the Puro Standard General Rules v4.4 document changed materially in our tracking and is under review. Article 6 and crediting-body items in the window are news only and carry no desk primary.
Desk view: Neutral. The demand step for high-integrity removals is a 2027 event on the SBTi calendar, not a 2026 one.
EU ETS (EUA). Mark: EUR 84.42 (2026-10-02, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), carried; primary print EUR 82.60 (2026-10-05, Latest EEX auction clearing price).
What moved: Session move -1.4%. Driver: heavy selling through technical support on 2 October, per Carbon Pulse.
Why: Rows show surplus narrowing to a deficit of -28.9 Mt (2029) against a TNAC of 1,023,494,202 allowances (2025-12-31), which sits in the MSR intake band.
Desk view: Bullish into year-end on intake plus a tightening cap; the Council's MSR mandate of 23 September is a trilogue mandate, not law.
UK ETS (UKA). Mark: GBP 60.98 (2026-10-02, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), carried; monthly average print GBP 59.34 (2026-08-31, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table).
What moved: Session move -1.9%. Driver: the same EU complex selling, transmitted through the spread; the Dec26 differential is -15.1%.
Why: Rows run -2.7 Mt (2027). No holdings or bank series is published for the UK ETS; what we hold is the registry Compliance Report's emissions and surrenders, which is not a stock.
Desk view: Bullish on linkage convergence, neutral this week.
NZ ETS (NZU). Mark: NZD 52.00 (2026-09-17, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks)). This print is 18 days old against a 7-day cadence: it is a last print, not a current level, and we quote no delta against it.
What moved: Nothing new. The 8 September auction failed with 10,400,000 units unsold, rolled to 1 December, the third 2026 auction to fail.
Why: Rows run -33.8 Mt (2027) on the assumption auctions clear nothing below the floor; cleared-at-floor would add supply. No stock figure is held for New Zealand.
Desk view: The no-clear case is now our base case for December, explicitly.
Australia (ACCU). Print: AUD 39.03 (2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR June quarter 2026, post-quarter price, 14 August 2026). No citable futures mark.
What moved: Method announcements in the window are news only; the desk holds no primary on them.
Why: Rows run -22.8 Mt (2027) against registry holdings of 61.2 million ACCUs excluding the cost containment measure (Clean Energy Regulator (cer.gov.au), publication CER-QCMR-June-Quarter-2026-AEM-chapter).
Desk view: Bullish structurally, neutral near term.
Corrections & notes