AS OF 6 October 2026, 17:30, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are today's close, marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Mark: EUR 84.78 (2026-10-06, Most liquid futures settlement), 1.1% day over day; primary print EUR 84.31 (2026-10-06, Latest EEX auction clearing price), mark 0.6% against it.
What moved: The Dec26 settle firmed, with the mark close to today's auction clearing, so the move is secondary-market repricing rather than an auction gap.
Why: Parliamentary positioning on the ETS reform dominated the EMEA wire today: the second-largest group in the Parliament proposed a higher annual cap-cut rate than the Commission's reform proposal, and the Greens filed draft amendments seeking a tighter cap and an overhaul of the system. That follows Monday's two-way session, in which heavy early selling on macro news, a weaker euro and better wind was largely reversed by steady buying.
Desk view: Constructive into 2029, when the rows flip from surplus to deficit (-28.9 Mt in 2029), against a TNAC stock of 1,023,494,202 allowances (total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC), 2025-12-31); amendments are proposals, and the Council's MSR mandate is a trilogue mandate, not law.
Mark: GBP 60.46 (2026-10-06, Most liquid futures settlement), 0.4%; primary print GBP 59.34 (2026-08-31, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table).
What moved: A small gain, and the Dec26 differential held UKA below EUA at -15.8% in common currency, narrowing to -13.0% by Dec28.
Why: No driver identified for a move of this size.
Desk view: Rows are in deficit throughout (-2.7 Mt in 2027); no holdings or bank series is published for the UK ETS, so what the desk holds beside the flow is the registry Compliance Report's emissions and surrenders, not a stock.
Mark: USD 32.68 (2026-10-06, Most liquid futures settlement), 0.9%; primary print USD 32.48 (2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price).
What moved: CCAs firmed, holding above the August auction clearing.
Why: Newly published data showed the compliance instrument surplus under the California-Quebec market grew nearly 2 percent in Q3, and the market absorbed it rather than repricing lower.
Desk view: Still constructive: the amended Table 6-2 removal of 118.3 Mt across 2027-2030 drives a -27.0 Mt flow deficit in 2027, which sits against a stock of 1,179,243,461 allowances (holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted, 2026-07-02), so drawdown pace, not any single year, is the trade.
Mark: USD 39.00 (2026-10-06, Most liquid futures settlement), 0.0%; primary print USD 39.50 (2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement).
What moved: Unchanged on the session.
Why: The tape is waiting: the Auction #16 notice published on 2 October with applications open, which Carbon Pulse reported as the largest quarterly offering to date under the programme, and the APCR Auction #8 summary report is due tomorrow. Two WAC 173-446 changes detected in late September are the adopted text and order of adoption already carried (Ecology publication Ecology-WAC-173-446-Adopted-Text-2026-09-23).
Desk view: Near term up in physical and spot terms into the 2 November compliance surrender, which is not the December futures contract marked here; next year down, as linkage pools Washington into a looser combined balance. APCR tiers are Tier 1 $65.26 and Tier 2 $83.84 (Ecology publication 26-14-072). No bank or stock figure is held for Washington; what is held is the adopted Table 210-1 supply row, 47.3 Mt in 2027. Why the desk differs from the curve: near term, the desk expects Washington prices higher into compliance - in physical terms, into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, not in the December contract the tape marks - in line with the tightening standalone curve; for next year the desk expects them lower, because once linkage takes effect Washington is pooled into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own, which the standalone curve does not measure.
Mark: USD 39.02 (2026-10-06, Most liquid futures settlement), 0.7%; primary print USD 37.65 (2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price), mark 3.6% above the auction, which reads as repricing since 9 September rather than a data question.
What moved: A modest gain.
Why: No driver identified; the live political item is the NJ BPU and NJDEP joint hearing on allowance prices on 15 October.
Desk view: Tight. The 2027 flow is -9.8 Mt (2027) million short tons against a surplus stock of 55,000,000 short tons (surplus allowances in circulation, 2026-06-30), and the CCR is a spent lever, triggered at the $18.22 2026 trigger price at Auction 71 (Potomac Economics, publication Auction_71_Market_Monitor_Report).
Last print: NZD 52.00 (2026-09-17, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks)). This is 19 days old against a 7 day cadence, a last print rather than a mark, and no delta is quoted against it.
What moved: Nothing observable on the desk's tape.
Why: The 8 September auction failed with no bids and 10,400,000 units unsold, rolled to the 1 December sale (New Zealand Government ETS auction platform (etsauctions.govt.nz), publication NZ-ETS-Auction-Results-September-2026), the third 2026 auction to fail.
Desk view: The desk's base case for December is another no-clear below the floor; the cleared-at-floor balance is the alternative, and the rows publish the zero-supply stress case as such (-33.8 Mt in 2027). No stock series is held; what is held is the auction result.
Last print: AUD 39.03 (2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR June quarter 2026, post-quarter price, 14 August 2026). No citable futures mark.
What moved: No fresh mark on this tape.
Why: The quarterly reporting cadence, not market quiet.
Desk view: Deficit flow of -22.8 Mt in 2027 beside registry holdings of 61,200,000 ACCUs (registry holdings excluding the cost containment measure, 2026-06-30), which blunts near-term scarcity.
Administered price: CAD 95.00 (2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement of 15 May 2026).
What moved: An administered headline price does not trade on a session.
Why: The governing instrument is the May 2026 Implementation Agreement schedule.
Desk view: The live date is Alberta's enactment of the credit price floor regulation by 31 December 2026, because grandfathering of pre-enactment credits turns on it. No stock is held; the supply picture runs two years behind the price.
Last print: CAD 172.00 (2026-08-31, Monthly average credit transfer price).
What moved: Monthly cadence, no session move.
Why: Not applicable.
Desk view: Neutral pending the next monthly transfer file; no credit bank series is held, only the monthly transfer price and volume.
Mark: CARB weekly credit transfer average USD 79.90, week of 2026-09-21, posted 2026-09-29, range 56.00 to 86.00, -4.6% against 83.77 for the week of 2026-09-14. RIN prints are 43 days old and historic, not current marks.
What moved: A weekly report sits on today's calendar; the freshest posting on the desk's tape remains the one above.
Why: The renewable diesel margin channel runs off Brent 113.96 $/BBL, WTI 96.16 $/BBL and Gulf Coast ULSD 4.866 $/GAL, all EIA spot, 2026-09-29.
Desk view: Firm crude at those levels widens the diesel-minus-feedstock margin, which lifts credit generation and is bearish credits at the margin; that flow read leans against the 2026Q1 balance, credits 6.93 against deficits 9.77 million MT with a bank of 36.86 million MT (2026Q1, not current). The desk weights flow this session because the bank is large enough to absorb one quarter of net drawdown.
RECs: not covered this edition. VCM: not covered this edition.
Washington APCR Auction #8, held 30 September, has its summary report due 7 October per ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Reserve-Auction-Potential-Dates-2514101; the tier prices above are the reference. Beyond tomorrow: CFTC Commitments of Traders on 9 October for carbon complex positioning, the next CARB weekly LCFS listing on 13 October, and the NJ BPU and NJDEP joint hearing on RGGI allowance prices on 15 October (Docket QO26090531). Washington Auction #16 applications close 2 November, the same day as the cap-and-invest compliance surrender.
Corrections & notes