AS OF 6 October 2026, 06:10, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the latest settlement held, dated on each line (session of 2026-10-05, a prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
RGGI (RGA). Mark USD 38.76 (2026-10-05, Most liquid futures settlement), -2.4%, carried from the prior session; primary print USD 37.65 (2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price).
What moved: The front contract settled -2.4%, the only move of two percent or more in the complex. No driver identified.
Why: The structure has not changed: forward rows run -9.8 Mt (2027) deepening to -32.9 Mt (2030), against a stock of 55,000,000 short tons (surplus allowances in circulation, 2026-06-30); the CCR was triggered at Auction 71 above $18.22 and is a spent lever, not a dormant one (Potomac Economics, publication Auction_71_Market_Monitor_Report).
Desk view: Constructive on a six-month view, drawdown pace is the trade, but a two-session pullback with no identifiable cause argues for patience rather than chasing; the NJ BPU and NJDEP joint hearing on allowance prices (Docket QO26090531) is the next scheduled political risk.
California-Quebec (CCA). Mark USD 32.39 (2026-10-05, Most liquid futures settlement), -0.0%, carried; primary print USD 32.48 (2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price).
What moved: Nothing: the Dec26 settle was unchanged session-on-session.
Why: Rows show -27.0 Mt (2027) widening to -84.2 Mt (2030) after the amended Table 6-2 removal of 118.3 Mt across 2027-2030, but the stock is 1,179,243,461 allowances (holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted, 2026-07-02), which is why a tightening flow is not yet a spot squeeze.
Desk view: Constructive into 2027 on the removal, neutral near term, the bank absorbs the first years of deficit.
Washington (WCA). Mark USD 39.00 (2026-10-05, Most liquid futures settlement), 0.0%, carried; primary print USD 39.50 (2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement).
What moved: Flat overnight. The APCR Auction #8 summary report is due tomorrow per ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Reserve-Auction-Potential-Dates-2514101; the sale offered Tier 1 at $65.26 and Tier 2 at $83.84 (Ecology publication 26-14-072).
Why: Our monitors flagged two further WAC 173-446 changes since our last sweep; the governing text is the adopted table (Ecology publication Ecology-WAC-173-446-Adopted-Text-2026-09-23), rows -9.4 Mt (2027) to -19.4 Mt (2030). The desk holds no bank or stock series for Washington; what it holds beside the flow is reserve supply, not a stock, the ECR Auction #1 sale of 731,000 allowances at $39.50 on cover 2.11 (Ecology publication 26-14-070, September 2026).
Desk view: Near term up in physical and spot terms into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, and that is not a call on the December futures contract the tape marks. Next year down, because linkage pools Washington into a combined balance with California-Quebec looser than its own. Why the desk differs from the curve: near term, the desk expects Washington prices higher into compliance - in physical terms, into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, not in the December contract the tape marks - in line with the tightening standalone curve; for next year the desk expects them lower, because once linkage takes effect Washington is pooled into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own, which the standalone curve does not measure.
Alberta TIER. Primary print CAD 95.00 (2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement of 15 May 2026); no citable traded mark, the desk can determine no reference contract.
What moved: No new development overnight.
Why: The administered schedule governs, and the live item is enactment of the credit price floor regulation, owed before year-end, with pre-enactment credits grandfathered.
Desk view: Neutral on the headline price, which is fixed; the grandfathering cutoff is the tradeable question and it is economically live now.
California LCFS. USD 79.90 per credit, week of 2026-09-21, CARB weekly volume-weighted average, posted 2026-09-29, range 56.00 to 86.00; prior week 83.77, -4.6%.
What moved: Effectively nothing week-on-week; the next weekly report is due on CARB's cadence and we will carry it when it posts.
Why: The renewable-diesel margin channel is firm, with Brent 113.96 $/BBL, WTI 96.16 $/BBL and ULSD Gulf Coast 4.866 $/GAL (US EIA, 2026-09-29): firmer crude widens diesel over feedstock, which lifts RD output and credit generation. The 2026Q1 balance showed credits 6.93 Mt against deficits 9.77 Mt, bank 36.86 Mt, quarter 2026Q1, not current.
Desk view: Mildly bearish credits near term on the margin channel; the bank is still large enough to cap upside.
BC LCFS. Primary print CAD 172.00 (2026-08-31, Monthly average credit transfer price).
What moved: No new development; the next monthly transfer print is the catalyst.
Why: Administered monthly averaging means the series lags physical trade.
Desk view: Neutral.
Canada CFR and the Oregon and Washington programmes: no citable mark on our tape today, and absolute credit volumes cannot be stated until ECCC publishes retirement data, which is why our CFR row is an index. Oregon's clean fuels rule text updated overnight on our regulatory monitors with no substantive read.
No citable REC mark on the tape today. The desk holds prices for 14 of the REC rows it tracks across 33 RPS jurisdictions.
What moved: Nothing with a price attached overnight.
Why: REC classes satisfy different obligations and do not average; without a sourced class price, direction is unsupported.
Desk view: Neutral across classes, and the desk will not call firm or soft on a class whose only price is withheld.
SBTi. As standing context, the Corporate Net-Zero Standard V2.0 was published 11 June 2026; SBTi Services' own transition guidance states validations open 1 February 2027, with V1.3.1 submissions accepted until 31 January 2028 (SBTi Services transition guide, SBTi Services, publication SBTi-Services-Transition-Guidance-V2). Nothing new overnight. Read: neutral on near-dated VCM demand, the demand step is a 2027 event, not a 2026 one.
Removals and standards. Our monitors flagged a large revision to the Puro Standard General Rules (Puro.earth Oy, publication Puro-Standard-General-Rules-v4-4); the change is under review and no price read follows from it yet. Article 6 and crediting-body items: nothing material overnight, and note that "GCC" in this week's Asia coverage is the Global Carbon Council, a crediting standard, not a bloc of states.
EU ETS (EUA). Mark EUR 83.87 (2026-10-05, Most liquid futures settlement), -0.7%, carried; primary print EUR 84.31 (2026-10-06, Latest EEX auction clearing price).
What moved: This morning's auction cleared above the carried Dec26 settle, a modest premium to the prior session.
Why: Rows run 113.7 Mt (2027) surplus narrowing to -100.5 Mt (2030), against TNAC of 1,023,494,202 allowances (total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC), 2025-12-31), which sits in the MSR intake band; the Council's negotiating mandate on invalidation (Council of the European Union (General Secretariat), publication Council-MSR-Mandate-ST-13517-2026-INIT) is a mandate for trilogue, not law.
Desk view: Constructive, structurally tightening into the 2029 flip; buy dips rather than chase auction-day strength.
UK ETS (UKA). Mark GBP 60.23 (2026-10-05, Most liquid futures settlement), -1.2%, carried; primary print GBP 59.34 (2026-08-31, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table).
What moved: Settled -1.2%, the softest leg in the complex overnight.
Why: The Dec26 UKA/EUA differential is -15.2% in common currency, wider at the front than at Dec28, while rows show -2.7 Mt (2027). No holdings or bank series is published for the UK ETS; what the desk holds beside the flow is the registry Compliance Report's emissions and surrenders, which is not a stock.
Desk view: Constructive on the differential narrowing over time, neutral outright today.
NZ ETS (NZU). Mark NZD 52.00 (2026-09-17, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks)). This print is from 17 September and is not a current level; no delta is quoted against it.
What moved: No new development overnight.
Why: The September auction failed, with 10,400,000 units unsold and rolled to the December sale (New Zealand Government ETS auction platform (etsauctions.govt.nz), publication NZ-ETS-Auction-Results-September-2026), the third 2026 failure. Rows run -33.8 Mt (2027) on the assumption auctions clear nothing below the floor; no stock series is held, and the rolled unsold volume is pending supply, not a bank.
Desk view: The no-clear case is our base case for the December auction, stated explicitly; secondary NZU support follows from it.
Australia (ACCU). Primary print AUD 39.03 (2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR June quarter 2026, post-quarter price, 14 August 2026); no fresher citable mark.
What moved: No new development on our primaries overnight.
Why: Rows run -22.8 Mt (2027) deepening to -34.4 Mt (2030) against registry holdings of 61,200,000 ACCUs (registry holdings excluding the cost containment measure, 2026-06-30).
Desk view: Constructive on the legislated baseline decline; the holdings stock keeps the near term orderly.
The multistate and municipal petition for review of EPA's partial repeal of the Carbon Pollution Standards is now filed in the D.C. Circuit (coag.gov publication COAG-Petition-for-Review-CPS-Partial-Repeal-2026-10-01; the final rule was signed September 14, 2026, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, via the Federal Register, publication EPA-Carbon-Pollution-Standards-Partial-Repeal-2026-19071), alongside EPA's supplemental proposal to rescind the section 111 predicate findings (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, publication EPA-GHG-Findings-Rescission-Supplemental-2026-19072). Read: bullish state-programme allowances at the margin. With the federal backbone removed, RGGI and WCI become the binding constraint on US power-sector carbon, and litigation risk sits on the repeal, not on the state caps. Henry Hub at 3.18 $/MMBTU against delivered coal at 2.4913 dollars per million Btu per million Btu (US EIA, 2026-09-29) keeps gas comfortably in merit order, which caps RGGI compliance demand upside this quarter. MISO tariff and business-practice-manual revisions flagged this week carry no direct carbon read.
Corrections & notes