AS OF 7 October 2026, 17:30, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the latest settlement held, dated on each line (session of 2026-10-06, a prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Sections run in the tape's order after Washington, which leads on today's calendar.
Mark: USD 39.00, 2026-10-06, Most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), 0.0% versus the prior same-basis mark, carried from the 2026-10-06 session because the same-day settlement file has not reached the tape. Primary print: USD 39.50, 2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement.
What moved: The carried settle was flat at 0.0%.
Why: APCR Auction #8 was held on September 30, 2026 with Tier 1 at $65.26 and Tier 2 at $83.84 (Ecology publication 26-14-072); the summary report is due today per ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Reserve-Auction-Potential-Dates-2514101 and no result is registered here at this clock.
Desk view: Near term up in physical and spot terms into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, which is not the Dec26 contract the tape marks. Next year down, because linkage pools Washington into a combined balance looser than its own; the 2027 flow row is -9.4 Mt (2027) and the desk holds no bank or stock series for this market, only the adopted Total Allowance Budget column, which is a supply path and not a stock. Why the desk differs from the curve: near term, the desk expects Washington prices higher into compliance - in physical terms, into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, not in the December contract the tape marks - in line with the tightening standalone curve; for next year the desk expects them lower, because once linkage takes effect Washington is pooled into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own, which the standalone curve does not measure.
Mark: EUR 84.78, 2026-10-06, Most liquid futures settlement, 1.1%, a carried prior-session settle. Primary print: EUR 83.83, 2026-10-07, Latest EEX auction clearing price.
What moved: The carried Dec26 settle gained 1.1% on the prior same-basis mark.
Why: No driver identified for that settle. Carbon Pulse reported that on Monday 5 October EUAs fell more than EUR 2 early on macro news, a falling euro and improving wind, then recovered to leave carbon mid-range, which is context for the week, not a cause of Tuesday's print.
Desk view: Constructive. The rows run 113.7 Mt (2027) to -28.9 Mt (2029) against a TNAC of 1,023,494,202 allowances as of 2025-12-31, above the 833 million intake threshold, so the reserve is taking in. Italy and Czechia are preparing proposals including temporary changes to the carbon market and free-allocation rules; that is a draft, not an instrument.
Mark: GBP 60.46, 2026-10-06, Most liquid futures settlement, 0.4%, carried. Primary print: GBP 59.34, 2026-08-31, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table.
What moved: Up 0.4% on the carried settle.
Why: No driver identified.
Desk view: The Dec26 differential sits at -16.0% in common currency, with the balance at -2.7 Mt (2027); no holdings or bank series is published for this market, what is held is the registry's Compliance Report, emissions and surrenders only.
Mark: USD 32.68, 2026-10-06, Most liquid futures settlement, 0.9%, carried. Primary print: USD 32.48, 2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price.
What moved: Firmer by 0.9%.
Why: No driver identified.
Desk view: Constructive on the adopted Table 6-2 removal; the flow is -27.0 Mt (2027) against holdings of 1,179,243,461 allowances in General and Compliance accounts, obligation not netted, as of 2026-07-02.
Mark: USD 39.02, 2026-10-06, Most liquid futures settlement, 0.7%, carried. Primary print: USD 37.65, 2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price.
What moved: Up 0.7%; the mark stands 3.6% against the Auction 73 clearing, which reads as repricing since September rather than a data question.
Why: No driver identified today.
Desk view: Tight. The CCR was triggered at Auction 71 and fully depleted, bids above $18.22 (Potomac Economics, publication Auction_71_Market_Monitor_Report), so the reserve is a spent lever. The flow is -9.8 Mt (2027) against 55,000,000 short tons of surplus allowances in circulation as of 2026-06-30; drawdown pace is the trade.
Last print: NZD 52.00, 2026-09-17, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks). This is 20 days old against a 7-day cadence, a last print rather than a mark, and no delta is quoted against it.
What moved: Nothing on our tape.
Why: The September auction failed with 10,400,000 units unsold (New Zealand Government ETS auction platform (etsauctions.govt.nz), publication NZ-ETS-Auction-Results-September-2026), the third 2026 failure, rolled to the next scheduled quarterly auction in December.
Desk view: The rows are the zero-auction-supply stress case, labelled as such, at -33.8 Mt (2027); the desk holds no stock series here. That stress case has occurred three times this year and the desk now treats a December no-clear as its base case.
Last print: AUD 39.03, 2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR June quarter 2026, post-quarter price, 14 August 2026, a quarterly print past its cadence.
What moved: No fresh mark.
Why: The series is quarterly.
Desk view: Flow of -22.8 Mt (2027) against registry holdings of 61,200,000 ACCUs excluding the cost containment measure as of 2026-06-30; constructive, unhurried.
Administered price: CAD 95.00, 2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement of 15 May 2026.
What moved: Nothing; this is a policy price, not a market cadence.
Why: The Agreement's headline schedule governs.
Desk view: The live item is the credit price floor regulation Alberta is to enact, because clause 1.2.3.4 grandfathers credits generated before enactment.
Print: CAD 172.00, 2026-08-31, Monthly average credit transfer price.
What moved: Monthly series, no fresh mark.
Why: Cadence.
Desk view: Neutral pending the next monthly transfer file.
CARB weekly LCFS credit: USD 82.18, week of 2026-09-28, posted 2026-10-06, range USD 55.75 to USD 87.50; prior week USD 83.77, week of 2026-09-14, -1.9%.
What moved: The posted weekly average rose -1.9%. No driver identified.
Why: The standing channel is the renewable-diesel margin, diesel less feedstock: Brent 125.44 $/BBL, WTI 96.24 $/BBL and ULSD Gulf Coast 4.565 $/GAL, EIA spot, 2026-10-06. Firmer crude widens the margin, lifts RD volume and raises credit supply, which is bearish credits.
Desk view: Flow reads bearish on that channel against a bank drawing down, 6.93 million MT of credits versus 9.77 million MT of deficits in 2026Q1, bank 36.86 million MT, not current. Weighting the quarterly balance over the weekly tape this session. The desk's RIN prints are historic at 44 days and support no statement on today's level.
RECs: not covered this edition. VCM: not covered this edition.
Tomorrow, Thursday, carries no dated event on the desk's calendar; the APCR Auction #8 summary report is the live item, due today per ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Reserve-Auction-Potential-Dates-2514101 and carried forward until printed. The CFTC Commitments of Traders for the carbon complex follows on Friday, CARB's weekly LCFS credit transfer report next week on its usual Tuesday cadence, and the NJ BPU and NJDEP joint hearing on RGGI allowance prices, Docket QO26090531, is 8 days out.
Corrections & notes