AS OF 7 October 2026, 06:10, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the latest settlement held, dated on each line (session of 2026-10-06, a prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
California-Quebec (CCA). Mark USD 32.68 (2026-10-06, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), carried from the prior session; 0.9% day on day. Primary print USD 32.48 (2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price).
What moved: Nothing new overnight in the California complex.
Why: The repricer remains the amended Table 6-2 removal of 118.3 Mt across 2027-2030, effective since 1 September.
Desk view: Constructive. The 2027 balance is -27.0 Mt (2027), deepening to -84.2 Mt (2030), against a stock of 1,179,243,461 allowances (holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted, 2026-07-02), so the tightening is real but unhurried.
Washington (WCA). Mark USD 39.00 (2026-10-06, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), carried from the prior session; 0.0% day on day. Primary print USD 39.50 (2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement); the mark sits -1.3% against it.
What moved: APCR Auction #8, held September 30, 2026 at Tier 1 $65.26 and Tier 2 $83.84 (Ecology publication 26-14-072), has its summary report due 7 October 2026 per ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Reserve-Auction-Potential-Dates-2514101. The result is not yet registered here.
Why: Ecology's adopted Table 210-1 budgets (Ecology publication Ecology-WAC-173-446-Adopted-Text-2026-09-23) put 2027 supply at 47.3 Mt against demand of 56.7 Mt (desk rows), a shortfall of -9.4 Mt (2027); no bank or holdings stock is held for this market, and what the desk does hold beside the flow is auction evidence, not a stock.
Desk view: Near term UP in physical and spot terms into the 2 November compliance deadline, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered; that is a spot call, not a call on the December contract the tape marks. Next year DOWN, because linkage pools Washington into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own. Why the desk differs from the curve: near term, the desk expects Washington prices higher into compliance - in physical terms, into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, not in the December contract the tape marks - in line with the tightening standalone curve; for next year the desk expects them lower, because once linkage takes effect Washington is pooled into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own, which the standalone curve does not measure.
RGGI (RGA). Mark USD 39.02 (2026-10-06, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), carried from the prior session; 0.7% day on day. Primary print USD 37.65 (2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price).
What moved: No fresh RGGI development since our last note; the NJ BPU and NJDEP joint hearing on allowance prices sits eight days out.
Why: Rows are deficit from 2027 at -9.8 Mt (2027) million short tons (2027) against the monitor's surplus of 55,000,000 short tons (surplus allowances in circulation, 2026-06-30). The 2026 CCR was triggered at Auction 71 above $18.22 and is fully depleted.
Desk view: Constructive but bank-paced; drawdown speed, not any single year, reprices this market.
Alberta TIER. No futures mark is held (no reference contract determinable). Primary print CAD 95.00 (2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement of 15 May 2026).
What moved: No new Alberta TIER development overnight.
Why: The administered schedule governs; the live question is Alberta enacting the credit price floor regulation by 31 December 2026, which fixes the grandfathering cutoff for pre-enactment credits.
Desk view: Neutral on the headline price, which is administered; constructive on post-enactment credit vintages.
California LCFS. USD 82.18 for the week of 2026-09-28, posted 2026-10-06, range 55.75 to 87.50; prior week 83.77 (2026-09-14), -1.9%.
What moved: Our monitors flag the renewable-diesel margin channel turning mixed from down. Legs: Brent 113.96 $/BBL, WTI 96.16 $/BBL and ULSD Gulf Coast 4.866 $/GAL, all US EIA spot, 2026-09-29.
Why: A mixed margin removes the clean credit-supply squeeze story without reversing it; the quarterly balance showed credits 6.93 against deficits 9.77 million MT in 2026Q1, bank 36.86 million MT, which is not current.
Desk view: Mildly constructive, less so than a week ago; direction-only, no number claimed from the channel.
BC LCFS. Primary print CAD 172.00 (2026-08-31, Monthly average credit transfer price, BC Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions (gov.bc.ca), publication BC-LCFS-Credit-Market-Data-September-2026). No new development; neutral.
Canada CFR. No citable credit mark is held, and ECCC's credit-retirement data is unpublished, which is why our CFR rows are an index rather than a quantity. Neutral by absence of a price.
No new RPS development overnight. The desk tracks 33 RPS jurisdictions with a sourced traded price in 14; vendor-assessed class prices are withheld, so no firmness call is available on classes without a citable print.
SBTi. As standing context, the Corporate Net-Zero Standard v2.0 published 11 June 2026; SBTi Services opens validations against V2.0 on 1 February 2027, with V2.0 mandatory from 1 February 2028 (SBTi Services, publication SBTi-Services-Transition-Guidance-V2). Nothing new overnight. Read: neutral near term, demand-constructive into 2027.
Removals. Our monitors flag a large change to the Puro Standard General Rules document (Puro.earth Oy, publication Puro-Standard-General-Rules-v4-4), too large for a word diff and under review; no directional read until the delta is read.
Article 6 / CORSIA. IATA marked CORSIA's tenth anniversary on 6 October with a call for governments to reinforce the scheme and to avoid extending the EU ETS extra-territorially (IATA, 6 October 2026). Read: neutral for now, modestly bullish CORSIA-eligible units if the EU review defers to CORSIA rather than overlapping it.
EU ETS (EUA). Mark EUR 84.78 (2026-10-06, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), carried from the prior session; 1.1% day on day. Primary print EUR 83.83 (2026-10-07, Latest EEX auction clearing price).
What moved: The carried settle gained over one percent on the prior same-basis mark. No driver identified.
Why: Structure is doing the work: surplus of 113.7 Mt (2027) narrowing to a deficit of -100.5 Mt (2030), with the stock at 1,023,494,202 allowances (total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC), 2025-12-31), above the intake band threshold, so the MSR is taking in rather than releasing.
Desk view: Constructive. The Council's MSR negotiating mandate of 23 September 2026 is a mandate for trilogue, not law.
UK ETS (UKA). Mark GBP 60.46 (2026-10-06, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), carried from the prior session; 0.4% day on day. Primary print GBP 59.34 (2026-08-31, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table).
What moved: Nothing new overnight. The Dec26 differential to EUA in common currency is -16.0%.
Why: Rows are deficit throughout, -2.7 Mt (2027); no holdings or bank series is published for this market, so the desk holds emissions and surrenders from the registry Compliance Report and no stock beside them.
Desk view: Constructive on the spread narrowing, neutral outright.
NZ ETS (NZU). Mark NZD 52.00 (2026-09-17, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks)). That print is 20 days old against a 7-day cadence: it is a last print, not a current level, and no delta is quoted against it.
What moved: Nothing overnight. The September auction failed: 10,400,000 units offered, 10,400,000 unsold, rolled to 1 December (New Zealand Government ETS auction platform (etsauctions.govt.nz), publication NZ-ETS-Auction-Results-September-2026). Third failure of 2026.
Why: Rows assume auctions clear nothing below the NZD 71 floor; on that assumption the balance is -33.8 Mt (2027). No bank or stock figure is held, so the flow is a supply path, not a sized scarcity call.
Desk view: The desk's base case for December is another no-clear. Constructive on secondary, unsized.
Australia (ACCU). Primary print AUD 39.03 (2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR June quarter 2026, post-quarter price, 14 August 2026); no futures mark is held.
What moved: The High Court of Australia dismissed MACH Energy's appeal over the Mount Pleasant expansion, finding the NSW Independent Planning Commission failed to consider conditions minimising emissions, with scope 3 emissions making up 98 percent of the mine's greenhouse gas emissions (Reuters via WHTC, 7 October 2026). Campaigners call it a binding national precedent (Al Jazeera).
Why: The judgment bites on approvals, not on Safeguard obligations directly, but conditions aimed at minimising emissions are the channel through which new projects acquire ACCU demand.
Desk view: Bullish ACCUs on a 2027-plus horizon, not today. Rows are -22.8 Mt (2027) deficit against registry holdings of 61,200,000 ACCUs (registry holdings excluding the cost containment measure, 2026-06-30), a stock large enough to absorb the first leg of any new demand.
Corrections & notes