This edition published at 13:51 MDT on 8 October, later than its usual time; it was held at the publish gates until the holds below were repaired.
Its futures marks are the session of 6 October. The 7 October settle was not available to the desk at this edition's as-of - that file loaded at 11:00 MT on 8 October, after the note was written - so every futures line below is the 6 October session, labelled as carried on each line, and has NOT been restamped to the newer settle.
AS OF 8 October 2026, 06:10, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the latest settlement held, dated on each line (session of 2026-10-06, a prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
California-Quebec (CCA). Mark USD 32.68 (2026-10-06, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), carried from the 6 October session; primary print USD 32.48 (2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price).
What moved: 0.9% on the carried settle, below the 2 percent driver threshold.
Why: No new Californian rulemaking overnight; the amended Table 6-2 removal of 118.3 Mt across 2027-2030 remains the standing repricer, effective from 1 September.
Desk view: Bullish into 2027. The forward rows carry a -27.0 Mt flow deficit in 2027 against a held stock of 1,179,243,461 allowances (holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted, 2026-07-02), so the tightening is real but unsized for several years by that bank.
Washington (WCA). Mark USD 39.00 (2026-10-06, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), carried from 6 October; primary print USD 39.50 (2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement).
What moved: 0.0%. The APCR Auction #8 summary report was due 7 October per ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Reserve-Auction-Potential-Dates-2514101. It published on schedule as Ecology publication 26-14-073, registered by the desk the same day. THE AUCTION WENT ENTIRELY UNSOLD, reported by Carbon Pulse citing Ecology on 7 October 2026. The desk holds that retrieval and not Ecology's own summary report, whose publication page describes what such a report contains and carries no result and whose document is released on request. So this edition carries the outcome and NO offered, sold or settlement count for Auction #8: the Tier 1 price of $65.26 stands on Ecology publication 26-14-072, and a volume figure would have to come from a summary of the report rather than from the report; tier prices stand at Tier 1 $65.26 and Tier 2 $83.84 (Ecology publication 26-14-072).
Why: The mark sits at a wide discount to the June auction print, and the adopted budget table (effective 24 October) sets 2027 supply at 47.3 Mt against 56.7 Mt of demand.
Desk view: Near term up in physical and spot terms into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered — not the December contract the tape marks. Next year down, because linkage pools Washington into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own. The desk holds no bank or stock series for Washington; what it holds beside the flow is the auction and reserve record, which is not a stock. Observed, and not the reason for the view above: the September reserve auction went entirely unsold at a Tier 1 price far above the futures mark. That is a separate argument pointing the same way; whether it changes the desk's reasoning is a considered question for a later edition, not a clause added to this one. Why the desk differs from the curve: near term, the desk expects Washington prices higher into compliance - in physical terms, into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, not in the December contract the tape marks - in line with the tightening standalone curve; for next year the desk expects them lower, because once linkage takes effect Washington is pooled into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own, which the standalone curve does not measure.
RGGI (RGA). Mark USD 39.02 (2026-10-06, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), carried from 6 October; primary print USD 37.65 (2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price).
What moved: 0.7%; our monitors flag a text change on Virginia DEQ's carbon trading page, unconfirmed against a primary and therefore not read here.
Why: Virginia's participation resumed 1 July 2026 and its H2 budget allowances are offered beginning with Auction 73, spread across the September and December sales; the CCR was triggered at Auction 71 and is a spent lever, not a dormant one.
Desk view: Bullish structurally. 2027 flow runs -9.8 Mt against a held surplus of 55,000,000 short tons (surplus allowances in circulation, 2026-06-30) — drawdown pace, not any single year, is the trade. The NJ BPU and NJDEP joint hearing on allowance prices sits seven days out.
Alberta TIER. Primary print CAD 95.00 (2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement of 15 May 2026).
What moved: Nothing new in the last 24 hours.
Why: The administered headline schedule governs; the live item is Alberta's commitment to enact the credit price floor regulation by the end of this year, which fixes the grandfathering cutoff for pre-enactment credits.
Desk view: Neutral on the headline price, which is administered. The desk holds no stock figure for TIER; balance rows are two years behind the price.
California LCFS. CARB weekly volume-weighted credit transfer price USD 82.18, week of 2026-09-28, posted 2026-10-06, range 55.75 to 87.50.
What moved: up 2.9% against USD 79.90 for the week of 2026-09-21 — a two percent-plus move; the driver is credit scarcity carrying through from the quarterly balance, not a single transaction.
Why: The renewable-diesel margin channel is doing the work: Brent 125.44 $/BBL, WTI 96.24 $/BBL and ULSD Gulf Coast 4.565 $/GAL (2026-10-06, US EIA spot). Firmer crude reprices diesel up faster than feedstock follows, the margin widens, more renewable diesel is generated, credit supply rises — bearish at the margin. The LRT-QS 2026Q1 balance showed credits 6.93 against deficits 9.77 million MT, bank 36.86 million MT; that is a quarter, not a current figure.
Desk view: Flow says bearish, structure says tightening into the stepped-up CI targets. We weight structure here, because the bank is drawing down quarter on quarter and the margin signal is direction-only without a licensed RIN price. The next weekly print and the 2026Q2 quarterly summary are the catalysts; that quarterly summary has not published as of this edition and is expected around 30 October on CARB's four-month-lag cadence.
BC LCFS. Primary print CAD 172.00 (2026-08-31, Monthly average credit transfer price, BC Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions (gov.bc.ca), publication BC-LCFS-Credit-Market-Data-September-2026). No fresh development overnight. Neutral; the desk holds no stock series for BC.
Canada CFR. No new ECCC publication. Absolute credit volumes cannot be stated until ECCC publishes retirement data, which is why the desk's rows are an index rather than a quantity; no stock figure is held. Neutral.
Oregon and Washington LCFS. No new development in the last 24 hours and no citable mark on our tape; standing read is neutral.
RINs. D4, D5, D6 and D3 prints on our tape date to 24 August and are stale — historic prints, not current levels. No delta is quoted against them and no current RIN direction is claimed.
No new development overnight. The desk tracks 33 RPS jurisdictions and holds a sourced traded price for 14 of them; vendor-assessed REC prices are withheld pending licence determinations, so no firmness call is made on classes without a citable price.
SBTi. Nothing new from the SBTi itself in the last 24 hours. As standing context, the Corporate Net-Zero Standard V2.0 was published on 11 June 2026; validations against V2.0 open 1 February 2027 and V2.0 becomes mandatory for submissions from 1 February 2028, with V1.3.1 submissions closing 31 January 2028 (SBTi; CIF summary, 5 October). Read: neutral near term, constructive into Q1 2027 for high-integrity removals demand — the demand step is a dated 2027 event, not a 2026 one.
Removals, CORCs and Puro. Our monitors flag a material change to the Puro Standard General Rules document (Puro.earth Oy, publication Puro-Standard-General-Rules-v4-4), too large for a word-level diff and not yet read against the primary. Read: neutral pending that read; rule changes to issuance mechanics have moved CORC supply timing before.
Article 6 and GCC. No desk-held primary advanced overnight; no view taken.
EU ETS (EUA). Mark EUR 84.78 (2026-10-06, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), carried from 6 October; primary print EUR 85.07 (2026-10-08, Latest EEX auction clearing price).
What moved: 1.1% on the carried settle; the auction clearing prints above the carried futures mark.
Why: The Council's MSR negotiating mandate of 23 September is a mandate for trilogue, not law (Council of the European Union (General Secretariat), publication Council-MSR-Mandate-ST-13517-2026-INIT); at the current TNAC of 1,023,494,202 allowances (total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC), 2025-12-31) the reserve is taking in, not releasing.
Desk view: Constructive. Surplus narrows from 113.7 Mt in 2027 and flips to deficit in 2029; the stock above still caps near-term squeeze risk.
UK ETS (UKA). Mark GBP 60.46 (2026-10-06, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), carried from 6 October; primary print GBP 59.34 (2026-08-31, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table).
What moved: 0.4%. The Dec26 UKA/EUA differential in common currency stands at -15.7%, narrowing to -12.9% by Dec28 (ECB reference rate, 7 October).
Why: Rows run -2.7 Mt short in 2027, deepening; linkage negotiations remain the standing driver of the differential.
Desk view: Bullish the differential, neutral outright. No holdings or bank series is published for the UK ETS; what the desk holds beside the flow is the 2026 free allocation table and the CCM trigger table, neither of which is a stock.
NZ ETS (NZU). Mark NZD 52.00 (2026-09-17, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks)). This print is 21 days old against a 7-day cadence and is not a current level; no delta is quoted against it.
What moved: Nothing overnight. The 8 September auction failed: 10,400,000 units offered, 10,400,000 unsold, rolled to the December sale. That is the third 2026 auction to fail.
Why: The rows assume auctions clear nothing below the NZD 71 floor, giving a -33.8 Mt 2027 deficit on flat industrial allocation.
Desk view: The no-clear case is now the desk's base case for 1 December, stated explicitly. Bullish secondary units; no stock figure is held for New Zealand, so the view is unsized on the bank.
Australia (ACCU). Primary print AUD 39.03 (2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR June quarter 2026, post-quarter price, 14 August 2026).
What moved: No fresh development in the last 24 hours.
Why: Legislated baseline decline drives a -22.8 Mt 2027 shortfall against registry holdings of 61,200,000 ACCUs (registry holdings excluding the cost containment measure, 2026-06-30).
Desk view: Bullish on a two-year view, neutral on the session; the holdings stock absorbs the near-term flow.
Corrections & notes