AS OF 9 October 2026, 17:30, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are today's close, marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Mark EUR 86.94, 2026-10-09, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26. Primary print EUR 86.11, 2026-10-09, Latest EEX auction clearing price.
What moved: Dec26 settled 0.1% against the prior same-basis mark, and stands 1.0% against today's auction clearing, a spread inside normal auction-to-screen timing.
Why: Nothing dated drove a move this size. The Council's negotiating mandate of 23 September 2026 on the Market Stability Reserve is a mandate for trilogue, not law, and the rows carry the Directive as it stands.
Desk view: Constructive on the curve: the balance narrows from 113.7 Mt (2027) million allowances (2027 flow) to -28.9 Mt (2029) million (2029 flow), against a stock of 1,023,494,202 allowances (total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC), 2025-12-31), which sits in the reserve's intake band, so the MSR is taking in rather than releasing.
Mark GBP 64.09, 2026-10-09, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26. Primary print GBP 59.34, 2026-08-31, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table.
What moved: Dec26 settled -0.3%, and the Dec26 pairing against EUA in common currency stands at -13.0% at the ECB reference rate dated 8 October 2026.
Why: No driver identified.
Desk view: The rows are in deficit from -2.7 Mt (2027) million allowances (2027 flow), deepening to -17.6 Mt (2029) million (2029 flow), under SI 2020/1265 Table B as amended. No holdings or bank series is held for the UK ETS; what sits beside the flow is the registry's emissions and surrenders record, which is not a stock. Constructive, with the front discount to EUA the thing to watch into linkage talk.
Mark USD 32.57, 2026-10-09, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26. Primary print USD 32.48, 2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price.
What moved: Dec26 settled -0.6%, leaving the mark 0.3% against the Auction 48 clearing.
Why: No driver identified.
Desk view: The amended Table 6-2 removal of 118.3 Mt across 2027 to 2030 is the structural driver and is in force. The 2027 flow is -27.0 Mt (2027) million allowances short, beside a stock of 1,179,243,461 allowances (holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted, 2026-07-02): a drawdown path, not scarcity yet.
Mark USD 39.00, 2026-10-09, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26. Primary print USD 39.50, 2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement.
What moved: Dec26 settled 0.0%, unchanged on the day.
Why: APCR Auction #8 was held September 30, 2026 at Tier 1 $65.26 and Tier 2 $83.84 (Ecology publication 26-14-072); its summary report was due 7 October 2026 per ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Reserve-Auction-Potential-Dates-2514101 and is not on our tape.
Desk view: Near term up in physical and spot terms into the 2 November compliance deadline, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, which is not the December contract the tape marks. Next year down, because linkage pools Washington into a combined balance looser than its own. No bank or stock figure is held here; what is held beside the -9.4 Mt (2027) million allowance 2027 flow is the adopted Total Allowance Budget column, which is not a stock. Why the desk differs from the curve: near term, the desk expects Washington prices higher into compliance - in physical terms, into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, not in the December contract the tape marks - in line with the tightening standalone curve; for next year the desk expects them lower, because once linkage takes effect Washington is pooled into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own, which the standalone curve does not measure.
Mark USD 39.87, 2026-10-09, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26. Primary print USD 37.65, 2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price.
What moved: Dec26 settled 0.6%, the firmest of the complex, and sits 5.9% above the Auction 73 clearing, which reads as repricing since the September sale rather than a data question.
Why: The New Jersey joint hearing on allowance prices lands 15 October. Virginia's participation resumed 1 July 2026 and its H2-2026 budget allowances were offered beginning with Auction 73, spread across the September and December auctions.
Desk view: Constructive. The 2026 Cost Containment Reserve was triggered at Auction 71 and fully depleted, the reserve having been made available at the 2026 trigger price of $18.22 (Potomac Economics, publication Auction_71_Market_Monitor_Report), so no reserve lever remains. The ten-state cap rows run -9.8 Mt (2027) million short tons short (2027 flow) against a stock of 55,000,000 short tons (surplus allowances in circulation, 2026-06-30); drawdown pace is the trade.
Mark NZD 52.00, 2026-10-02, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks). No primary print is carried.
What moved: No fresh mark today; the last close is 2026-10-02, and the 0.0% reading spans endpoints fifteen days apart, not a session move.
Why: The 8 September auction took no bids and 10,400,000 units went unsold, rolled to the 1 December auction (New Zealand Government ETS auction platform (etsauctions.govt.nz), publication NZ-ETS-Auction-Results-September-2026), the third 2026 failure.
Desk view: The rows are the zero-auction-supply stress case, which has occurred three times this year and is the desk's base case into December; the cleared-at-floor case is not rowed. The -33.8 Mt (2027) million unit 2027 flow is a supply path only: no bank or stock figure is held, and what sits beside it is the unsold auction volume.
No fresh mark. Last print AUD 39.03, 2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR June quarter 2026, post-quarter price, 14 August 2026, a quarterly publication past its cadence and a historic print rather than a current mark.
What moved: Nothing on our tape.
Why: The next regulator print is the quarterly cycle.
Desk view: Constructive on the legislated baseline decline; the -22.8 Mt 2027 flow deficit sits beside registry holdings of 61,200,000 ACCUs (registry holdings excluding the cost containment measure, 2026-06-30).
Administered price CAD 95.00, 2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement of 15 May 2026. No reference futures contract can be determined for Alberta credits, so the desk carries no tradeable mark.
What moved: Nothing: this is a scheduled policy price, not a market mark.
Why: The headline schedule runs from the Implementation Agreement, with the credit price floor regulation to be enacted by Alberta before the end of this year.
Desk view: The live variable is the enactment date, which fixes the grandfathering cutoff for credits generated beforehand, not the headline number.
Print CAD 213.96, 2026-09-30, September 2026 avg transfer price (BC Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions (gov.bc.ca), publication BC-LCFS-Credit-Market-Data-October-2026).
What moved: The September monthly average is a large step up from August's 172.0 (BC Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions (gov.bc.ca), publication BC-LCFS-Credit-Market-Data-September-2026); the province's credit market data file carries an October 2026 update.
Why: No driver identified.
Desk view: A monthly average of approved transfers is a lagging, composition-sensitive series; the desk takes no direction from one month.
CA LCFS credit USD 82.18, week of 2026-09-28, posted 2026-10-06, range 55.75 to 87.50, CARB weekly volume-weighted average credit transfer price.
What moved: The weekly average printed 2.9% against USD 79.90 for the week of 2026-09-21. The D4, D5, D6 and D3 RIN lines on our tape are historic prints from August and support no statement about today's level; no current RIN mark is carried.
Why: The renewable-diesel margin channel, diesel less feedstock, carries Brent 125.44 $/BBL, WTI 96.24 $/BBL and ULSD Gulf Coast 4.565 $/GAL, EIA spot at 2026-10-06; these are dated point values, so the channel is read as a level and direction only, with no move claimed.
Desk view: Neutral to constructive. The 2026Q1 balance showed credits 6.93 against deficits 9.77 million MT, a net of -2.84 million MT for that quarter, against a cumulative bank of 36.86 million MT; that is a bank drawing down slowly, and it is not a current figure.
RECs: not covered this edition.
VCM: not covered this edition.
Today's CFTC Commitments of Traders is out and the desk carries no carbon-complex positioning figure from it; the next release is 16 October. CARB's weekly LCFS credit transfer report is next due 13 October. The New Jersey BPU and NJDEP joint public hearing on RGGI allowance prices, Docket QO26090531, is on 15 October (New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (nj.gov/bpu), publication NJBPU-RGGI-Joint-Hearing-Notice-QO26090531-2026-09-21). The application period for Washington's November APCR auction closes 19 October (ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Reserve-Auction-Potential-Dates-2514101), with bid guarantees due 6 November; Ecology's adopted Chapter 173-446 WAC amendments take effect later this month (Ecology publication Ecology-CR-103-WAC-173-441-446-AO-24-02). CARB's 2026Q2 LCFS quarterly data summary is expected 30 October. Washington's annual compliance deadline and the Auction #16 application close both fall 2 November (ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Summary-of-Expected-Dates-2514100). New Zealand's next quarterly auction, carrying the September rollover, is 1 December. The Washington APCR Auction #8 summary report remains owed to readers here until it prints.
Correction issued 2026-10-09
Correction: the California LCFS weekly move was +2.9%, not -1.9% - the 7 October editions compared against a week-stale prior price and inverted the sign: The 7 October morning and evening editions printed the CA LCFS weekly move as -1.9% against USD 83.77 (week of 2026-09-14). Read the full correction
Desk notice: the 8 October evening and 9 October morning editions were retired before publication: neither edition reached readers - the 9 October morning was held at this desk's source-freshness gate, which found the BC LCFS monthly print it carried (CAD 172.00, August 2026) superseded by the September figure of CAD 213.96, a 24.4... Read the full correction
Corrections & notes