AS OF 12 October 2026, 17:30, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the latest settlement held, dated on each line (session of 2026-10-09, a prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Mark: EUR 86.94, 2026-10-09, Most liquid futures settlement, carried from the 2026-10-09 session. Primary print: EUR 86.28, 2026-10-12, Latest EEX auction clearing price.
What moved: The carried settle stands 0.1% against the prior same-basis mark, and 0.8% against today's auction clearing.
Why: Today's EEX clearing is the only same-day print the desk holds; the Council's MSR negotiating mandate, agreed 23 September 2026 (Council of the European Union (General Secretariat), publication Council-MSR-Mandate-ST-13517-2026-INIT), is a mandate for trilogue and not law.
Desk view: Constructive on structure: the rows show a 113.7 Mt surplus in the 2027 one-year flow flipping to a -28.9 Mt deficit in 2029, against a stock of 1,023,494,202 allowances (total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC), 2025-12-31), which is why the near term is a carry story, not a scarcity one.
Mark: GBP 64.09, 2026-10-09, Most liquid futures settlement, carried. Last print: GBP 59.34, 2026-08-31, a monthly average and not a session mark.
What moved: -0.3% on the carried settle, with the Dec26 discount to EUA at -13.0% in common currency at the ECB reference rate of 2026-10-09.
Why: No driver identified beyond the stale-session carry; linkage talk remains a standing desk view, not a dated event.
Desk view: Mildly constructive. The rows run -2.7 Mt in the 2027 one-year flow, deepening to -17.6 Mt in 2029; no holdings or bank series is published for this market, and what the desk holds beside the flow is the registry Compliance Report's emissions and surrenders, which is not a stock.
Mark: USD 32.57, 2026-10-09, Most liquid futures settlement, carried. Primary print: USD 32.48, 2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price.
What moved: -0.6%, and the mark sits 0.3% against the August auction clearing.
Why: No driver identified; the move is inside the session noise on a carried settle.
Desk view: Long-biased on structure. The amended budget table removes 118.3 Mt across 2027-2030 (CARB publication CARB-CaI-Final-Regulation-Order-2026), and the 2027 one-year flow is -27.0 Mt against a stock of 1,179,243,461 allowances (holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted, 2026-07-02), so the deficit bites through the bank, not immediately.
Mark: USD 39.00, 2026-10-09, Most liquid futures settlement, carried. Primary print: USD 39.50, 2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement.
What moved: 0.0% on the carried settle; the live item is APCR Auction #8, which offered 172,348 allowances at a bid-to-allowance ratio of 0.00 (Ecology publication 26-14-073).
Why: The reserve tiers sit far above the curve, Tier 1 at $65.26 and Tier 2 at $83.84 (Ecology publication 26-14-072); Carbon Pulse reported the sale went completely unsold at a Tier 1 price "more than two-thirds above futures" on 7 October 2026.
Desk view: Near term up in physical and spot terms into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, which is not the December contract the tape marks. Next year down, because linkage pools Washington into a combined balance looser than its own, and that view leans against adopted rows of -9.4 Mt in the 2027 one-year flow (Ecology publication Ecology-WAC-173-446-Adopted-Text-2026-09-23). No bank or stock figure is held for this market; what is held beside the flow is the auction record, which is not a stock. Why the desk differs from the curve: near term, the desk expects Washington prices higher into compliance - in physical terms, into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, not in the December contract the tape marks - in line with the tightening standalone curve; for next year the desk expects them lower, because once linkage takes effect Washington is pooled into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own, which the standalone curve does not measure.
Mark: USD 39.87, 2026-10-09, Most liquid futures settlement, carried. Primary print: USD 37.65, 2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price.
What moved: 0.6%, leaving the mark 5.9% against the Auction 73 clearing.
Why: No driver identified on the day; the standing fact behind the level is that the CCR was triggered at Auction 71, held March 11, 2026 at the trigger price of $18.22 (Potomac Economics, publication Auction_71_Market_Monitor_Report) and fully depleted, so the reserve is a spent lever.
Desk view: Constructive but patient. The 2027 one-year flow is -9.8 Mt (2027) million short tons against a surplus in circulation of 55,000,000 short tons (surplus allowances in circulation, 2026-06-30), so drawdown pace is the trade. Virginia resumed participation on 1 July 2026 and first offered allowances at Auction 73, which raised USD 259.3 million for the state as the publisher states it.
Last print: NZD 52.00, 2026-10-02, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks). Ten days old against a seven-day cadence, so it is a last print and no delta is quoted.
What moved: Nothing on the desk's tape today.
Why: The September auction failed: 10,400,000 units offered and 10,400,000 unsold (New Zealand Government ETS auction platform (etsauctions.govt.nz), publication NZ-ETS-Auction-Results-September-2026), the third 2026 auction to fail.
Desk view: The desk's base case for the December auction is a further no-clear below the floor, which is the assumption behind rows of -33.8 Mt in the 2027 one-year flow; the cleared-at-floor case would add supply, and no bank figure is held for this market.
No fresh mark. Primary print: AUD 39.03, 2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR June quarter 2026, post-quarter price, 14 August 2026.
What moved: Unmarked today.
Why: The next scheduled regulator print is quarterly, so there is nothing between quarters to move the desk's citable level.
Desk view: Constructive. The 2027 one-year flow is -22.8 Mt against registry holdings of 61,200,000 ACCUs (registry holdings excluding the cost containment measure, 2026-06-30).
Administered price: CAD 95.00, 2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement of 15 May 2026. This is a policy price, not a market mark.
What moved: Nothing; no citable traded mark is carried.
Why: The headline schedule is set by agreement, not by session trading.
Desk view: The live item is Alberta's credit price floor regulation, whose enactment fixes the grandfathering cutoff for credits generated before it, so compliance buyers are pricing timing rather than level.
Primary print: CAD 213.96, 2026-09-30, September 2026 avg transfer price.
What moved: The September average transfer price printed 213.96 (BC Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions (gov.bc.ca), publication BC-LCFS-Credit-Market-Data-October-2026) against August at 172.0 (BC Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions (gov.bc.ca), publication BC-LCFS-Credit-Market-Data-September-2026), both in Canadian dollars.
Why: Monthly transfer averages move on mix as much as on level, and the desk holds no intramonth series to narrow it further.
Desk view: Firm, with the caveat that a monthly average is a lagging instrument; no bank figure is held for this market.
CARB weekly credit print: USD 82.18, week of 2026-09-28, posted 2026-10-06, range USD 55.75 to 87.50.
What moved: Against the prior week at USD 79.90 (week of 2026-09-21), the weekly average moved 2.9%. RIN prints on the tape are 49 days old and historic, so no current RIN level is carried.
Why: The renewable-diesel margin channel, diesel less feedstock, is the decision variable behind the largest credit-generation category, and the desk's EIA spot legs are Brent 125.44 $/BBL, WTI 96.24 $/BBL and Gulf Coast ULSD 4.565 $/GAL, all 2026-10-06; direction only, since a widening margin raises RD generation and is bearish credits.
Desk view: Constructive on credits over the bank's drawdown, with the quarterly balance showing credits 6.93 million MT against deficits 9.77 million MT in 2026Q1 and a cumulative bank of 36.86 million MT, which is a lagged quarter and not a current figure.
CARB's weekly LCFS credit transfer report is due on its Tuesday cadence tomorrow, and the desk will carry it when it posts. The Washington APCR auction application period for the November sale closes in seven days (ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Reserve-Auction-Potential-Dates-2514101), and after a reserve sale that took no bids at all, participation there is the cleanest read available on whether anyone wants allowances above the curve. Also this week: the New Jersey BPU and NJDEP joint hearing on RGGI allowance prices, docket QO26090531, and the CFTC Commitments of Traders release covering positioning in the carbon complex. Washington's Auction #16 application period closes in early November (ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Summary-of-Expected-Dates-2514100), alongside the annual compliance deadline.
RECs: not covered this edition. VCM: not covered this edition.
Corrections & notes