AS OF 12 October 2026, 06:10, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the latest settlement held, dated on each line (session of 2026-10-09, a prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
We last published on the evening of 9 October. Every futures mark below is the 9 October settle, the same session that edition carried, so we have no marked level for the gap window and quote no three-day delta.
California-Quebec (CCA). Mark USD 32.57 (2026-10-09, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), carried from the 9 October session, not today's mark; primary print USD 32.48 (2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price).
What moved: -0.6% against the prior same-basis mark into 9 October; nothing marked since.
Why: No new Californian rulemaking in the window; the amended Table 6-2 removal of 118.3 Mt across 2027-2030 is in force and already in our rows.
Desk view: Constructive. The forward rows are in deficit every year (-27.0 Mt in 2027, -84.2 Mt by 2030) against held stock of 1,179,243,461 allowances (holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted, 2026-07-02) - a deep bank, so this is a grind, not a squeeze.
Washington (WCA). Mark USD 39.00 (2026-10-09, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), carried from the 9 October session; primary print USD 39.50 (2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement).
What moved: APCR Auction #8, held September 30, 2026, offered 172,348 allowances and recorded a bid-to-allowance ratio of 0.00 (Ecology publication 26-14-073) - the reserve went unbid. Tiers were set at $65.26 and $83.84 (Ecology publication 26-14-072).
Why: With the Dec26 contract well below Tier 1, nobody pays a reserve price for allowances available cheaper on screen; the mark sits -1.3% against the Auction #15 clearing.
Desk view: Near term up in physical and spot terms into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered - that is a spot call, not a call on the December future the tape marks. Next year down, and that leans against our own deepening deficit rows (-9.4 Mt in 2027) because linkage pools Washington into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own. The desk holds no bank or stock series here; what sits beside the flow is the adopted budget table (Ecology publication Ecology-WAC-173-446-Adopted-Text-2026-09-23) and the reserve tiers, neither of which is a stock. Why the desk differs from the curve: near term, the desk expects Washington prices higher into compliance - in physical terms, into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, not in the December contract the tape marks - in line with the tightening standalone curve; for next year the desk expects them lower, because once linkage takes effect Washington is pooled into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own, which the standalone curve does not measure.
RGGI (RGA). Mark USD 39.87 (2026-10-09, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), carried from the 9 October session; primary print USD 37.65 (2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price).
What moved: 0.6% into 9 October. Ahead: the NJ BPU and NJDEP joint hearing on RGGI allowance prices this week (New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (nj.gov/bpu), publication NJBPU-RGGI-Joint-Hearing-Notice-QO26090531-2026-09-21).
Why: Federal backdrop firmed rather than loosened over the gap: a 21-state and four-city coalition petitioned for review of EPA's partial repeal of the Carbon Pollution Standards (coag.gov publication COAG-Petition-for-Review-CPS-Partial-Repeal-2026-10-01; NRDC et al. sued 17 September). Federal retreat raises, not lowers, the marginal value of state programmes. Henry Hub at 3.03 $/MMBTU (2026-10-06, US EIA) keeps gas ahead of delivered coal at 2.4913 dollars per million Btu, capping power-sector obligation growth.
Desk view: Constructive but patient. Rows are -9.8 Mt in 2027 deepening to -32.9 Mt, against a surplus of 55,000,000 short tons (surplus allowances in circulation, 2026-06-30); the CCR is spent, so drawdown pace is the trade.
Alberta TIER. Print CAD 95.00 (2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement of 15 May 2026). No futures mark is held.
What moved: Nothing new in the window.
Why: The headline schedule is administered, not traded, so it does not move on sessions.
Desk view: Neutral on the headline; the live variable is the credit floor regulation Alberta is to enact this year, since pre-enactment credits stay transferable below the floor. No bank or stock series is held for TIER.
California LCFS. USD 82.18 for the week of 2026-09-28, posted 2026-10-06, range 55.75 to 87.50; prior week 79.90, 2.9%.
What moved: The credit printed higher week on week; CARB's next weekly report is on its Tuesday cadence (CARB publication CARB-LCFS-Weekly-Listing-Cadence-2026-09-21).
Why: The renewable-diesel margin channel is the supply lever: Brent 125.44 $/BBL, WTI 96.24 $/BBL and ULSD Gulf Coast 4.565 $/GAL (2026-10-06, US EIA) are the desk's legs, and they are six days old - firmer diesel widens the margin, lifts RD volume and is bearish credits; softer diesel does the reverse.
Desk view: Mildly constructive. The 2026Q1 balance ran credits 6.93 against deficits 9.77 million MT with a bank of 36.86 million MT - not current, and the quarterly summary for 2026Q2 is expected at month-end.
Oregon and Washington LCFS: no citable mark on our tape, and no new development in the window. Canada CFR: no citable credit price is held - ECCC's credit-retirement data is unpublished, which is why our rows are an index, not a quantity, and no bank figure is held. BC LCFS: print CAD 213.96 (2026-09-30, September 2026 avg transfer price), against 172.0 in August (BC Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions (gov.bc.ca), publication BC-LCFS-Credit-Market-Data-September-2026) - a steep monthly step up. Read: bullish BC credits on transfer-price momentum; no stock series is held.
No new RPS development in the window. The desk tracks 33 US RPS jurisdictions and holds a sourced traded price in 14 of them.
Desk view: No firmness call where no citable price exists. Per-class figures stand; REC classes satisfy different obligations and are never averaged.
SBTi: no development in the window. As standing context, the Corporate Net-Zero Standard v2.0 was published 11 June 2026; validations against V2.0 open 1 February 2027. Read: neutral near term - demand-side repricing waits on that date.
Removals: our monitors flag a large revision to the Puro Standard General Rules (Puro.earth Oy, publication Puro-Standard-General-Rules-v4-4), under review and not yet dispositioned - no view until the diff is read.
Article 6 and crediting standards: Gold Standard published its G-RESET methodology for grid-connected renewables, storage and energy-transition projects, replacing country-income screening with project-level additionality tests. Read: bearish the long tail of legacy renewables credits, mildly supportive of integrity-screened supply, judgment.
EU ETS (EUA). Mark EUR 86.94 (2026-10-09, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), carried from the 9 October session; primary print EUR 86.28 (2026-10-12, Latest EEX auction clearing price).
What moved: 0.1% into 9 October. MLex reported member states formally approved MSR changes for the buildings and road-transport market on 9 October, and environment ministers debate the wider ETS review today ahead of the Council later this week; we hold no primary for the approved figures and quote none.
Why: For ETS1 the live file is still the Council's negotiating mandate of 23 September, which would suspend invalidation above 400 million and set a 800 million threshold from 2031 (Council of the European Union (General Secretariat), publication Council-MSR-Mandate-ST-13517-2026-INIT). That is a mandate for trilogue, not law, and our rows carry the Directive as it stands.
Desk view: Constructive into 2027-29. Surplus narrows from 113.7 Mt in 2027 to -100.5 Mt by 2030 against TNAC of 1,023,494,202 allowances (2025-12-31), still in the intake band, so the reserve is absorbing rather than releasing.
UK ETS (UKA). Mark GBP 64.09 (2026-10-09, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), carried from the 9 October session; primary print GBP 59.34 (2026-08-31, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table), an official monthly average and not a current level.
What moved: -0.3% into 9 October; Dec26 sits -13.0% against EUA in common currency at the ECB reference rate of 9 October.
Why: Linkage expectation, not flow, is doing the work in that differential.
Desk view: Constructive on structure - rows deficit every year (-17.2 Mt in 2028) - but no holdings series is published for the UK ETS, so this is a supply path, not a sized scarcity call; what is held beside it is the 2026 free allocation table (UK ETS Authority (gov.uk), publication GOVUK-UKETS-Allocation-Table-2026-08), which is not a stock.
NZ ETS (NZU). Mark NZD 52.00 (2026-10-02, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks)) - ten days old against a seven-day cadence, so a last print and not a current level; no delta is quoted against it.
What moved: Nothing marked. The September quarterly auction took no bids: 10,400,000 units offered, 10,400,000 unsold (New Zealand Government ETS auction platform (etsauctions.govt.nz), publication NZ-ETS-Auction-Results-September-2026), the third 2026 auction to fail, rolled to the December sale.
Why: Secondary supply clears below the floor, so auction bidding has no economic reason to appear.
Desk view: Neutral. Our rows assume auctions clear nothing below the floor and show -33.8 Mt in 2027; that zero-supply case is the stress case and it has now occurred three times, which is why we treat a December no-clear as the base case. No bank or stock figure is held for New Zealand.
Australia (ACCU). Print AUD 39.03 (2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR June quarter 2026, post-quarter price, 14 August 2026); no futures mark is held and nothing new printed in the window.
What moved: Nothing on our marks.
Why: The quarterly cadence means the next repricing event is the regulator's report, not a session.
Desk view: Constructive on structure: rows run -22.8 Mt in 2027 against registry holdings of 61,200,000 ACCUs (registry holdings excluding the cost containment measure, 2026-06-30).
Correction issued 2026-10-12
Correction: the 8 October morning said this desk held Ecology publication 26-14-073 on the day it published. It did not.: the 8 October morning edition stated that the APCR Auction #8 summary report 'published on schedule as Ecology publication 26-14-073, registered by the desk the same day'. Read the full correction
Correction: the 9 October evening said the APCR #8 summary report was owed 'until it prints'. It had already printed.: the 9 October evening edition said the Washington APCR Auction #8 summary report 'remains owed to readers here until it prints'. Read the full correction
Corrections & notes