AS OF 13 October 2026, 17:30, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are today's close, marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Sections run Washington first and then the tape's own instrument order, because the day's lead is Washington's reserve-auction calendar.
Mark USD 39.25, 2026-10-13, Most liquid futures settlement, -0.6% against the prior same-basis mark; primary print USD 39.50, 2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement.
What moved: The Dec26 mark settled -0.6%, a session move too small to carry a driver.
Why: The calendar is the story: the application period for the November reserve auction closes six days from today (ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Reserve-Auction-Potential-Dates-2514101). APCR Auction #8 offered 172,348 allowances at a bid-to-allowance ratio of 0.00 (Ecology publication 26-14-073), with tier prices set at Tier 1 $65.26 and Tier 2 $83.84 (Ecology publication 26-14-072).
Desk view: Near term up in physical and spot terms into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, which is not the December futures contract the tape marks. Next year down, because linkage pools Washington into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own. The 2027 row runs -9.4 Mt as a one-year flow; no bank or holdings figure is held for this market, and what sits beside the flow is the adopted Total Allowance Budget column (Ecology publication Ecology-WAC-173-446-Adopted-Text-2026-09-23). Tomorrow is a trading day with no dated catalyst on the desk's calendar. Why the desk differs from the curve: near term, the desk expects Washington prices higher into compliance - in physical terms, into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, not in the December contract the tape marks - in line with the tightening standalone curve; for next year the desk expects them lower, because once linkage takes effect Washington is pooled into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own, which the standalone curve does not measure.
Mark EUR 88.05, 2026-10-13, Most liquid futures settlement, -0.3%; primary print EUR 87.04, 2026-10-13, Latest EEX auction clearing price, the mark 1.2% against it.
What moved: A quiet close, -0.3%, with the futures mark and today's auction clearing sitting close enough that no basis question arises.
Why: No same-session driver identified at this size; the recent tone was set earlier in the month, when EUAs posted their largest weekly decline in four months on heavy selling that pushed the contract below a long-standing rising trend line. The Council's MSR negotiating mandate of 23 September remains a mandate for trilogue, not law, and the rows carry the Directive as it stands.
Desk view: Constructive on the structure: the surplus narrows and flips to deficit in 2029 (-28.9 Mt, one-year flow), against a TNAC stock of 1,023,494,202 allowances (total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC), 2025-12-31), which is why the front end can stay heavy while the curve tightens.
Mark GBP 65.92, 2026-10-13, Most liquid futures settlement, -0.9%; primary print GBP 60.17, 2026-09-30, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table.
What moved: Settled -0.9%, the softest of the futures complex today.
Why: No driver identified at this size. The gap of 9.6% between mark and print is a basis and timing difference, a daily settlement against a monthly average, not a market dislocation.
Desk view: UKA sits -11.4% below EUA in common currency at Dec26, narrowing to -8.7% by Dec28 at the ECB reference rate of 12 October; the rows are short through the decade (-17.2 Mt in 2028, one-year flow), no holdings series is published for this market, and what is held beside the flow is the registry's Compliance Report of emissions and surrenders.
Mark USD 32.67, 2026-10-13, Most liquid futures settlement, 1.0%; primary print USD 32.48, 2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price.
What moved: The firmest leg of the complex, 1.0%, and 0.6% above the August auction clearing.
Why: No single same-session driver; positioning has been the running theme, with managed money reported to have built CCA net length and narrowed its RGA net short in the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report. The next COT lands later this week.
Desk view: Constructive. The amended Table 6-2 removal of 118.3 Mt across 2027-2030 deepens the rows to -48.5 Mt in 2028 as a one-year flow, against holdings of 1,179,243,461 allowances (holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted, 2026-07-02); the bank is why repricing is slow, not why it will not happen.
Mark USD 40.00, 2026-10-13, Most liquid futures settlement, 0.8%; primary print USD 37.65, 2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price, the mark 6.2% above it.
What moved: Settled 0.8%; the spread to the September auction clearing is secondary repricing since Auction 73, not a data question.
Why: The Board of Public Utilities and NJDEP joint public hearing on RGGI allowance prices, docket QO26090531, sits this Thursday. Standing fact: the 2026 CCR was triggered at Auction 71 above the $18.22 trigger price and fully depleted (Potomac Economics, publication Auction_71_Market_Monitor_Report), so the reserve is a spent lever.
Desk view: Tight and getting tighter: -9.8 Mt in 2027 as a one-year flow, deepening to -32.9 Mt, against a surplus in circulation of 55,000,000 short tons (surplus allowances in circulation, 2026-06-30). Drawdown pace is the trade.
Last print NZD 52.00, 2026-10-02, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks), 11 days old against a 7-day cadence: a last print, not a mark, and no delta is quoted against it.
What moved: Nothing on our tape today.
Why: The September auction drew no bids and 10,400,000 units went unsold and rolled forward to the December auction (New Zealand Government ETS auction platform (etsauctions.govt.nz), publication NZ-ETS-Auction-Results-September-2026), the third 2026 auction to fail.
Desk view: The rows assume auctions clear nothing below the floor, which is the stress case; it has now occurred three times, and the desk takes the no-clear outcome as its base case for December. No stock figure is held here, and what sits beside the flow is the rolled unsold volume above.
Last print AUD 39.03, 2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR June quarter 2026, post-quarter price, 14 August 2026, 60 days old against a 4-day cadence: a historic print, not a current level, and no delta is quoted.
What moved: No citable movement; the desk's secondary sources here are not republishable.
Why: The next observation comes with the CER's quarterly reporting cadence.
Desk view: Short rows, -22.8 Mt in 2027 as a one-year flow, against registry holdings of 61,200,000 ACCUs (registry holdings excluding the cost containment measure, 2026-06-30).
Administered price CAD 95.00, 2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement of 15 May 2026; a policy price, labelled as such rather than aged against a market cadence.
What moved: No change, and none is due until the schedule steps.
Why: The Agreement sets the headline ladder to 2040 and a credit price floor from 2030; Alberta is to enact the floor regulation before the year is out, and the grandfathering cutoff for credits generated before enactment makes that date economically live now.
Desk view: Obligation-model market; the balance picture is two years behind the price, so the schedule, not the rows, is the repricer.
Print CAD 213.96, 2026-09-30, September 2026 avg transfer price.
What moved: September transfers averaged 213.96 CAD per credit (BC Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions (gov.bc.ca), publication BC-LCFS-Credit-Market-Data-October-2026).
Why: August transfers averaged 172.0 CAD per credit (BC Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions (gov.bc.ca), publication BC-LCFS-Credit-Market-Data-September-2026), so the monthly series has repriced sharply higher on a thin, negotiated transfer population.
Desk view: Respect the direction, size it carefully: a monthly average of bilateral transfers is not a continuous market, and the 2026 row is an estimate.
CARB weekly credit transfer average USD 82.18, week of 2026-09-28, posted 2026-10-06, range USD 55.75 to USD 87.50; prior week USD 79.90, 2.9% week on week.
What moved: CARB's weekly listing is due on its weekly cadence and the desk's held print remains the week above; RIN prints on our tape are 50 days old and historic, so no current RIN level is marked here.
Why: The renewable-diesel margin channel reads off Brent 125.44 $/BBL, WTI 96.24 $/BBL and Gulf Coast ULSD 4.565 $/GAL, EIA spot, 2026-10-06: a firm diesel leg widens the margin, lifts renewable-diesel volume and credit generation, and is bearish credit prices, conditional on feedstock not following.
Desk view: Neutral to softer on LCFS credits on the flow channel, against a structural bank that is still drawing: credits 6.93 million MT versus deficits 9.77 million MT in 2026Q1, bank 36.86 million MT, a quarter now well behind the market. Weighting the flow read this session because the quarterly balance is the slower surface.
RECs: not covered this edition.
VCM: not covered this edition.
Corrections & notes