Watch today: CARB's weekly LCFS credit transfer report on its Tuesday cadence (see 1b), and the WA reserve application close on 19 October (see 1a).
AS OF 13 October 2026, 06:10, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the latest settlement held, dated on each line (session of 2026-10-09, a prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
California-Quebec (CCA). Mark USD 32.57 (2026-10-09, Most liquid futures settlement), -0.6% day-on-day, carried from the 2026-10-09 session: the same-day settlement file has not reached the tape, so this is a carried prior-session settle, not today's mark. Primary print USD 32.48 (2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price).
What moved: Nothing overnight; the carried settle moved less than one percent.
Why: No new CARB or Quebec action since the amended Table 6-2 took effect, which removed 118.3 Mt from the 2027-2030 budgets.
Desk view: Constructive on the curve, neutral at the front. Forward rows are -27.0 Mt (2027) deepening to -84.2 Mt (2030), but holdings of 1,179,243,461 allowances (holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted, 2026-07-02) mean this is a supply path, not near-term scarcity.
Washington (WCA). Mark USD 39.00 (2026-10-09, Most liquid futures settlement), 0.0% day-on-day, carried from the 2026-10-09 session. Primary print USD 39.50 (2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement).
What moved: APCR Auction #8 offered 172,348 allowances at a bid-to-allowance ratio of 0.00 (Ecology publication 26-14-073). Tier 1 was priced at $65.26 and Tier 2 at $83.84 (Ecology publication 26-14-072).
Why: With the Dec26 contract marked far below Tier 1, reserve allowances are uneconomic; applications for the November reserve sale close 19 October (ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Reserve-Auction-Potential-Dates-2514101).
Desk view: Near term up in physical and spot terms into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, and that is not the December futures contract the tape marks. Next year down, because linkage pools Washington into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own. The desk holds no bank or stock figure here; what it holds instead is the adopted Table 210-1 budget column (Ecology publication Ecology-WAC-173-446-Adopted-Text-2026-09-23) and the auction record, neither of which is a stock. Why the desk differs from the curve: near term, the desk expects Washington prices higher into compliance - in physical terms, into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, not in the December contract the tape marks - in line with the tightening standalone curve; for next year the desk expects them lower, because once linkage takes effect Washington is pooled into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own, which the standalone curve does not measure.
RGGI (RGA). Mark USD 39.87 (2026-10-09, Most liquid futures settlement), 0.6% day-on-day, carried from the 2026-10-09 session. Primary print USD 37.65 (2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price).
What moved: No new print; the NJ BPU and NJDEP joint public hearing on RGGI allowance prices sits two days out (New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (nj.gov/bpu), publication NJBPU-RGGI-Joint-Hearing-Notice-QO26090531-2026-09-21).
Why: As background, EPA's partial repeal of the 2024 Carbon Pollution Standards was published in the Federal Register on 17 September and is scheduled to take effect in mid-November, with a 26-party petition for review filed on 1 October in the D.C. Circuit (coag.gov publication COAG-Petition-for-Review-CPS-Partial-Repeal-2026-10-01); a thinner federal backbone leaves regional programmes carrying the obligation.
Desk view: Mildly bullish. Rows are -9.8 Mt (2027) million short tons (2027) deepening to -32.9 Mt (2030) million short tons (2030) against a surplus of 55,000,000 short tons (surplus allowances in circulation, 2026-06-30), so drawdown pace is the trade. The CCR was triggered and fully depleted at Auction 71, held March 2026, clearing above the trigger price of $18.22 (Potomac Economics, publication Auction_71_Market_Monitor_Report): the soft ceiling is spent, not dormant.
Alberta TIER. Primary print CAD 95.00 (2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement of 15 May 2026); no futures mark is carried.
What moved: Nothing in the last 24 hours.
Why: The headline schedule is administered, and the live variable is the credit price floor regulation Alberta is to enact by the end of this year, which fixes the grandfathering cutoff for credits generated before enactment.
Desk view: Neutral on the headline price, constructive on credits: secondary Alberta credits traded above $27 (440 Megatonnes (Canadian Climate Institute), publication 440Megatonnes-Alberta-Market-Tracking-2026-09-15). No bank or stock series is held for TIER; the balance rows run two years behind the administered price.
California LCFS. USD 82.18, week of 2026-09-28, posted 2026-10-06, range 55.75 to 87.50; prior week 79.90 (2026-09-21), 2.9% week on week.
What moved: The week-on-week gain exceeded two percent. No driver identified.
Why: The 2026Q1 balance showed credits 6.93 against deficits 9.77 million MT, a net -2.84 million MT on a bank of 36.86 million MT, not a current figure. On the credit-supply channel, the renewable-diesel margin sits on Brent 125.44 $/BBL and WTI 96.24 $/BBL against ULSD Gulf Coast 4.565 $/GAL (2026-10-06, US EIA): a firmer diesel leg widens the margin, lifts RD volume and adds credit supply, which is bearish credits.
Desk view: Neutral to mildly firm into today's CARB weekly report, which posts on CARB's Tuesday cadence. Oregon and Washington LCFS carry no citable mark on our tape.
Canada CFR and BC LCFS. BC primary print CAD 213.96 (2026-09-30, September 2026 avg transfer price); the August 2026 transfer average was 172.0 (BC Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions (gov.bc.ca), publication BC-LCFS-Credit-Market-Data-September-2026).
What moved: The September transfer average stepped up sharply from August, the clearest move in the North American fuels complex this month.
Why: BC obligation tightening against thin credit transfer volumes; for the federal CFR the desk's rows remain an index, because ECCC's credit-retirement data is unpublished, and no stock figure is held for either market.
Desk view: Bullish BC LCFS credits on the transfer trend; neutral CFR pending ECCC publication.
What moved: No fresh desk-held REC development in the last 24 hours; our monitors flag a small delta in the Illinois Power Agency RPS pages, under review and not yet substantive.
Why: Coverage is the constraint: a sourced traded price is held for 14 of the 33 RPS jurisdictions tracked.
Desk view: No firmness call where the only price is withheld. Power prices drive REC demand, and Henry Hub at 3.03 $/MMBTU (2026-10-06, US EIA) is not tight enough to force a compliance bid.
SBTi. SBTi Services has published new validation resources ahead of V2.0, with validation slots bookable from 1 February 2027 (SBTi Services, publication SBTi-Services-Transition-Guidance-CNZS-V2). As context, the standard itself was published in June 2026; V1.3.1 remains open until 31 January 2028 .
Desk view: Neutral near term, structurally supportive of durable removals: the demand switch does not flip until validations open.
Removals and Article 6. Our monitors flag a large change to the Puro Standard General Rules (Puro.earth Oy, publication Puro-Standard-General-Rules-v4-4), too big for a word diff and under review. No Article 6 or crediting-standard primary moved on the desk overnight; read neutral pending the rules diff.
EU ETS (EUA). Mark EUR 86.94 (2026-10-09, Most liquid futures settlement), 0.1% day-on-day, carried from the 2026-10-09 session. Primary print EUR 87.04 (2026-10-13, Latest EEX auction clearing price).
What moved: Today's auction clearing printed above the carried futures settle, the freshest number on the complex.
Why: With TNAC at 1,023,494,202 allowances (total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC), 2025-12-31), the MSR is in intake, not release. The Council's negotiating mandate of 23 September on invalidation above 400 million allowances is a mandate for trilogue, not law (Council of the European Union (General Secretariat), publication Council-MSR-Mandate-ST-13517-2026-INIT).
Desk view: Constructive. Surplus narrows from 113.7 Mt (2027) to -100.5 Mt (2030), flipping to deficit in 2029.
UK ETS (UKA). Mark GBP 64.09 (2026-10-09, Most liquid futures settlement), -0.3% day-on-day, carried from the 2026-10-09 session. Primary print GBP 60.17 (2026-09-30, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table).
What moved: Nothing overnight; the Dec26 discount to EUA in common currency is -12.7%.
Why: Linkage expectation, not fundamentals, carries the discount; rows are -2.7 Mt (2027).
Desk view: Mildly bullish on the spread narrowing. No holdings series is published for the UK ETS, so the desk holds no stock; what it holds beside the absence is the 2026 free allocation table and the CCM trigger table, neither of which is a stock.
NZ ETS (NZU). Mark NZD 52.00 (2026-10-02, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks)). That print is 11 days old against a 7-day cadence: it is a last print, not a current level, and no delta is quoted against it.
What moved: Nothing new; the September auction offered 10,400,000 units and left 10,400,000 unsold (New Zealand Government ETS auction platform (etsauctions.govt.nz), publication NZ-ETS-Auction-Results-September-2026), the third 2026 auction to fail.
Why: Bidding below the floor is rational while secondary sits under it.
Desk view: The desk takes the no-clear case as its base case for the 1 December auction, explicitly. Bullish structurally, with rows at -33.8 Mt (2027); no stock figure is held, so this is a supply path, not a sized scarcity call.
Australia (ACCU). Primary print AUD 39.03 (2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR June quarter 2026, post-quarter price, 14 August 2026); no futures mark is carried.
What moved: Nothing in the last 24 hours.
Desk view: Constructive. Rows run -22.8 Mt (2027) against registry holdings of 61,200,000 ACCUs (registry holdings excluding the cost containment measure, 2026-06-30), which absorbs the near-term gap.
Corrections & notes