AS OF 15 October 2026, 06:10, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the latest settlement held, dated on each line (session of 2026-10-14, a prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
We last published on the evening of 13 October; the only marked session since is 14 October, so every delta below is session-over-session, not a gap measure.
California-Quebec (CCA). Mark USD 32.45 (2026-10-14, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), -0.7% against the prior same-basis mark; primary print USD 32.48 (2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price).
What moved: Nothing instrument-specific since our last edition; the mark is carried from 14 October.
Why: The amended Table 6-2 removal of 118.3 Mt across 2027-2030 is already in force (California Air Resources Board (rulemaking record page), publication CARB-CaI-2026-OAL-Approval-Effective-2026-09-01) and is in the rows rather than in the tape.
Desk view: Bullish into 2027. The forward rows run -27.0 Mt (2027) short, against held stock of 1,179,243,461 allowances (holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted, 2026-07-02), so the scarcity is a 2027-onward flow story the bank still cushions. Judgment, not fact.
Washington (WCA). Mark USD 39.25 (2026-10-14, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), 0.0%; primary print USD 39.50 (2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement).
What moved: APCR Auction #8 offered 172,348 allowances at a bid-to-allowance ratio of 0.00 (Ecology publication 26-14-073); the proceeds report is due October 28, 2026.
Why: Tier 1 at $65.26 and Tier 2 at $83.84 (Ecology publication 26-14-072) sit far above the futures mark, so the reserve was never economic. The desk holds no bank or stock series for Washington; what it holds instead is the adopted budget table (Ecology publication Ecology-WAC-173-446-Adopted-Text-2026-09-23).
Desk view: Near term up in physical and spot terms into the 2 November annual compliance deadline, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered; that is a spot call, not a call on the December contract the tape marks. Next year down, because linkage pools Washington into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own. Why the desk differs from the curve: near term, the desk expects Washington prices higher into compliance - in physical terms, into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, not in the December contract the tape marks - in line with the tightening standalone curve; for next year the desk expects them lower, because once linkage takes effect Washington is pooled into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own, which the standalone curve does not measure.
RGGI (RGA). Mark USD 40.00 (2026-10-14, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), 0.0%; primary print USD 37.65 (2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price).
What moved: NJ BPU and NJDEP hold their joint public hearing on RGGI allowance prices today, Docket QO26090531 (New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (nj.gov/bpu), publication NJBPU-RGGI-Joint-Hearing-Notice-QO26090531-2026-09-21); no result is registered.
Why: The agencies are presenting a ratepayer-relief action plan, so the political question is proceeds use and bill impact, not cap integrity. The 2026 CCR was triggered and fully depleted at Auction 71 (Potomac Economics, publication Auction_71_Market_Monitor_Report): the soft ceiling is a spent lever.
Desk view: Constructive but headline-exposed. Rows run -9.8 Mt (2027) million short tons (2027) short against a surplus of 55,000,000 short tons (surplus allowances in circulation, 2026-06-30), so drawdown pace is the trade; a ratepayer-relief framing from a member state is the first real political headline risk this programme has carried this year. Judgment.
Alberta TIER. Primary print CAD 95.00 (2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement of 15 May 2026). No new development in the last two days; this is an administered headline price, not a traded level.
What moved: Nothing.
Why: The repricer is the Implementation Agreement schedule, unchanged.
Desk view: Neutral on the headline; the live item is Alberta enacting the credit price floor regulation by 31 December 2026, with pre-enactment credits grandfathered. The desk holds no bank or stock series for TIER.
California LCFS. USD 68.30, weekly volume-weighted average credit transfer price for the week of 2026-10-05, posted 2026-10-13, range 54.40 to 100.00.
What moved: -16.9% against 82.18 for the week of 2026-09-28. No driver identified.
Why: The transfer range is wide enough that a weekly average moves on mix. On the supply channel, the renewable-diesel margin runs off Brent 125.44 $/BBL, WTI 96.24 $/BBL and ULSD Gulf Coast 4.565 $/GAL (2026-10-06, US EIA): firm crude widens the margin, lifts RD generation and is bearish credits.
Desk view: Bearish near term. The 2026Q1 balance showed credits 6.93 million MT against deficits 9.77 million MT with a bank of 36.86 million MT (2026Q1, not current); a bank that size absorbs a quarter of net deficit without repricing.
BC LCFS. CAD 213.96 (2026-09-30, September 2026 avg transfer price; BC Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions (gov.bc.ca), publication BC-LCFS-Credit-Market-Data-October-2026). No new development. Desk view: neutral; the desk holds no bank series here.
Canada CFR, Oregon and Washington LCFS. No citable mark and no development in the window; CFR rows remain an index because ECCC has not published credit-retirement volumes. Nothing to trade off this morning.
What moved: Connecticut's RPS annual compliance filing (Exhibit A) is due to PURA today; no result is registered.
Why: Compliance filings set the realised shortfall against ACP, which is what prices Northeast Class I paper into the next vintage.
Desk view: Neutral across the complex. The desk tracks 33 RPS jurisdictions and holds a sourced traded price for only 14 of them, so no firmness call is available on classes with no citable price. California PCC categories, Northeast Class I and Tier 1, and SRECs are all unmarked on our tape today.
What moved: Nothing new in the last two days on SBTi. As context, the Corporate Net-Zero Standard V2.0 was published on 11 June 2026, with validations against V2.0 opening 1 February 2027 and the standard mandatory for new submissions from 1 February 2028. On removals, our monitors flag a large change to the Puro Standard General Rules v4.4 document (Puro.earth Oy, publication Puro-Standard-General-Rules-v4-4), too large for a word-level diff and under review; the substance is unconfirmed. Nothing new on Article 6 or the Global Carbon Council.
Desk view: Neutral on removals and CORC-linked paper. The demand trigger is the February 2027 validation window, not October; durable-removal pricing stays a bilateral story until then. Judgment.
EU ETS (EUA). Mark EUR 87.14 (2026-10-14, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), -1.0%; primary print EUR 85.84 (2026-10-15, Latest EEX auction clearing price).
What moved: The European Council meets today and tomorrow with ETS reform on the table; the Council's negotiating mandate of 23 September on the MSR would suspend invalidation above 400 million and set a 800 million threshold from 2031 (Council of the European Union (General Secretariat), publication Council-MSR-Mandate-ST-13517-2026-INIT). It is a mandate for trilogue, not law.
Why: At a TNAC of 1,023,494,202 allowances (total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC), 2025-12-31) the reserve is taking in, not releasing, so anything that softens intake is bearish supply.
Desk view: Bearish into the Council, bullish structurally. The rows run 113.7 Mt (2027) long, narrowing to -28.9 Mt (2029) short. We are leaning on flow against the structural curve this session because a headline loosening the MSR hits the front of the curve first.
UK ETS (UKA). Mark GBP 65.10 (2026-10-14, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), -1.2%; primary print GBP 60.17 (2026-09-30, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table).
What moved: No UK-specific development in the window. The Dec26 differential to EUA in common currency is -11.5%, narrowing to -8.6% by Dec28 (ECB reference rate, 2026-10-14).
Why: Linkage expectations do the work in that narrowing, and they move with the EU calendar rather than with UK data.
Desk view: Mildly bullish on the spread, neutral outright. Rows run -2.7 Mt (2027) short; no holdings or bank series is published for the UK ETS, so the stock is not held. What the desk holds beside the absence is the 2026 free allocation table, which is not a stock.
NZ ETS (NZU). Mark NZD 52.00, dated 2026-10-02. That print is stale: it is 13 days old against a 7-day cadence and is a last print, not a current level, so no delta is quoted against it.
What moved: Nothing new.
Why: The 8 September auction failed, with 10,400,000 units offered and 10,400,000 unsold (New Zealand Government ETS auction platform (etsauctions.govt.nz), publication NZ-ETS-Auction-Results-September-2026), the third 2026 auction to fail; volume rolls to the December auction.
Desk view: The desk's base case is that December also fails to clear below the floor. Rows run -33.8 Mt (2027) short on the assumption of zero auction supply, which is the stress case stated as such; the desk holds no stock figure for New Zealand.
Australia (ACCU). Primary print AUD 39.03 (2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR June quarter 2026, post-quarter price, 14 August 2026). That print is 62 days old against a 4-day cadence and is not a current level.
What moved: Nothing registered since our last edition.
Why: The next repricer is the CER's quarterly cycle.
Desk view: Constructive but unmarked. Rows run -22.8 Mt (2027) short against registry holdings of 61,200,000 ACCUs (registry holdings excluding the cost containment measure, 2026-06-30), so the bank still covers more than two years of flow deficit.
Corrections & notes