AS OF 16 October 2026, 17:30, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are today's close, marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Mark EUR 85.41 (2026-10-16, Most liquid futures settlement), -0.5% against the prior same-basis mark; primary print EUR 85.50 (2026-10-16, Latest EEX auction clearing price).
What moved: A quiet session, the mark settling -0.5% and sitting -0.1% against today's own auction clearing.
Why: Inside one percent, so no driver is asserted. The Council's negotiating mandate of 23 September 2026 would suspend invalidation above 400 million (Council of the European Union (General Secretariat), publication Council-MSR-Mandate-ST-13517-2026-INIT); it is a mandate for trilogue, not law, and the rows carry the Directive as it stands.
Desk view: Constructive on the structure: the 2027 balance is 113.7 Mt (one-year flow, 2027) and flips to -28.9 Mt in 2029, beside a stock of 1,023,494,202 allowances (total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC), 2025-12-31), which keeps the reserve in intake, not release.
Mark GBP 63.41 (2026-10-16, Most liquid futures settlement), -0.2%; primary print GBP 60.17 (2026-09-30, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table).
What moved: Marginal, -0.2%, with the Dec26 discount to EUA at -12.3% in common currency (ECB reference rate, 15 October).
Why: Sub-one-percent; no driver asserted.
Desk view: Mildly constructive. The 2027 flow is -2.7 Mt, deepening to -17.6 Mt in 2029; no holdings or bank series is held for this market, and what the desk does hold beside the flow is the registry's Compliance Report of emissions and surrenders, which is not a stock.
Mark USD 32.36 (2026-10-16, Most liquid futures settlement), 0.2%; primary print USD 32.48 (2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price).
What moved: The only mark higher on the day, 0.2%, and trading -0.4% against the August auction clearing.
Why: Sub-one-percent; no driver asserted.
Desk view: Long-biased structurally. The amended budget table removes 118.3 Mt across 2027-2030, giving a 2027 flow of -27.0 Mt against a stock of 1,179,243,461 allowances (holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted, 2026-07-02): the deficit is real but the bank buys years.
Mark USD 38.35 (2026-10-16, Most liquid futures settlement), -1.7%; primary print USD 39.50 (2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement).
What moved: The weakest mark in the complex today. No driver identified.
Why: The standing frame is reserve demand, not news: APCR Auction #8 offered 172,348 allowances at a bid-to-allowance ratio of 0.00 (Ecology publication 26-14-073), with Tier 1 at $65.26 and Tier 2 at $83.84 (Ecology publication 26-14-072, September 2026) far above where the mark trades.
Desk view: Near term up in physical and spot terms into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, which is not the December contract this tape marks. Next year down, because linkage pools Washington into a combined balance looser than its own, even though the standalone 2027 flow is -9.4 Mt. No bank or holdings figure is held here; what sits beside the flow is Ecology's adopted budget column, which is supply, not a stock. Why the desk differs from the curve: near term, the desk expects Washington prices higher into compliance - in physical terms, into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, not in the December contract the tape marks - in line with the tightening standalone curve; for next year the desk expects them lower, because once linkage takes effect Washington is pooled into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own, which the standalone curve does not measure.
Mark USD 39.60 (2026-10-16, Most liquid futures settlement), -0.6%; primary print USD 37.65 (2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price), the mark 5.2% above it.
What moved: Softer by -0.6%, inside one percent, so no driver asserted.
Why: The policy noise is New Jersey: the joint NJBPU/NJDEP hearing on allowance prices was held yesterday under docket QO26090531, where NJBIA argued continued participation as established worsens affordability and urged replacing the auction price with a flat per-ton charge. Separately, the desk's collectors flagged a change to the codified text of 40 CFR part 60 subpart Da yesterday, the subpart touched by EPA's partial repeal of the Carbon Pollution Standards (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, via the Federal Register, publication EPA-Carbon-Pollution-Standards-Partial-Repeal-2026-19071).
Desk view: Constructive but patient. The 2027 flow is -9.8 Mt against 55,000,000 short tons (surplus allowances in circulation, 2026-06-30); drawdown pace reprices this, not any one compliance year. The CCR was triggered at Auction 71 at the $18.22 trigger and fully depleted (Potomac Economics, publication Auction_71_Market_Monitor_Report): a spent lever.
Mark NZD 52.00 (2026-10-02, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks)), a last print rather than a current mark, stale against its weekly cadence, and no delta is quoted against it.
What moved: Nothing on our tape today.
Why: The September auction sold nothing: 10,400,000 units offered, 10,400,000 unsold and rolled forward (New Zealand Government ETS auction platform (etsauctions.govt.nz), publication NZ-ETS-Auction-Results-September-2026), the third failure of the year.
Desk view: The desk takes the no-clear case as its base case for the December auction. The rows carry -33.8 Mt (2027 flow) on the zero-supply stress assumption; the cleared-at-floor case is shallower. No stock series is held; the rolled-forward unsold units are supply pending, not a bank.
Primary print AUD 39.03 (2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR June quarter 2026, post-quarter price, 14 August 2026), a last print, not a current mark, and stale against its own cadence.
What moved: No fresh mark today.
Why: No new regulator print since the June-quarter report.
Desk view: Structurally tight: -22.8 Mt (2027 flow) beside 61,200,000 ACCUs (registry holdings excluding the cost containment measure, 2026-06-30), so the deficit is cushioned near term.
Primary print CAD 95.00 (2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement of 15 May 2026), an administered headline price, not a market mark. No citable futures mark: the available feed carries no open-interest data, so no reference contract can be set.
What moved: Nothing; administered prices do not trade.
Why: The governing instrument is the Implementation Agreement schedule.
Desk view: The live variable is the credit price floor regulation Alberta is to enact before year-end, because enactment fixes the grandfathering cutoff for credits generated beforehand.
Primary print CAD 213.96 (2026-09-30, September 2026 avg transfer price).
What moved: September's average transfer price printed at CAD 213.96 (BC Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions (gov.bc.ca), publication BC-LCFS-Credit-Market-Data-October-2026), against August's CAD 172.0 (BC Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions (gov.bc.ca), publication BC-LCFS-Credit-Market-Data-September-2026).
Why: Monthly transfer averages, not a session.
Desk view: Firm, on a monthly basis one year ahead of the balance rows.
CARB weekly credit transfer average USD 68.30, week of 2026-10-05, posted 2026-10-13, range 54.40 to 100.00; prior week USD 82.18 (2026-09-28), -16.9%.
What moved: The weekly LCFS average fell week on week, -16.9%, on a wide reported range. The desk's RIN prints are historic, not current marks, and support no statement about today's level.
Why: The renewable-diesel margin channel is the supply read: Brent 126.55 $/BBL, WTI 101.91 $/BBL and Gulf Coast ULSD 4.844 $/GAL (EIA spot, 2026-10-14), a firm crude complex that widens the margin, raises RD volumes and is bearish credit prices.
Desk view: Bearish flow against a bank still drawing: credits 6.93 million MT versus deficits 9.77 million MT in 2026Q1, bank 36.86 million MT, not current. Weighting flow this session because the quarterly balance is two quarters in arrears.
RECs: not covered this edition. VCM: not covered this edition.
The CFTC Commitments of Traders release for the carbon complex landed this afternoon; no positioning figure is carried here. Next week the application period closes for Washington's November reserve auction (ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Reserve-Auction-Potential-Dates-2514101), and CARB's weekly LCFS credit transfer report posts on its weekly cadence. Washington's Auction #16 application window and the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November follow (ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Summary-of-Expected-Dates-2514100), with CARB's 2026Q2 LCFS quarterly summary expected later this month and New Zealand's next auction in December.
Desk note issued 16 October 2026
WAC 173-446 linkage: Washington's cap-and-invest chapter now carries a section titled Linkage, effective 24 October 2026. Read the full note
Corrections & notes