AS OF 16 October 2026, 06:10, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the latest settlement held, dated on each line (session of 2026-10-15, a prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
RGGI (RGA). Mark USD 39.84 (2026-10-15, Most liquid futures settlement), -0.4%, carried from the prior session; primary print USD 37.65 (2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price).
What moved: NJBPU and NJDEP held their joint public hearing on RGGI allowance prices yesterday, docket QO26090531, presenting a ratepayer-relief action plan (New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (nj.gov/bpu), publication NJBPU-RGGI-Joint-Hearing-Notice-QO26090531-2026-09-21). The agencies were noticed to present an action plan under N.J.S.A. 26:2C-56 and to discuss whether allowance prices impact ratepayers and the potential use of proceeds for bill stabilisation.
Why: Affordability politics is now attached directly to the allowance price in the programme's second-largest state, alongside DEP's separate Model Rule alignment proposal.
Desk view: Neutral near term, constructive into 2027. The forward rows are deficit from -9.8 Mt (2027) million short tons (2027) deepening to -32.9 Mt (2030) million short tons (2030), but the monitor's stock of 55,000,000 short tons (surplus allowances in circulation, 2026-06-30) still has to drain, and the CCR was triggered and fully depleted at Auction 71 (Potomac Economics, publication Auction_71_Market_Monitor_Report), so it is a spent lever. We lean neutral against a tightening curve because New Jersey headline risk caps the near-term rally.
Federal flag (power sector, RGGI-relevant): EPA's Partial Repeal of the Carbon Pollution Standards is a published final rule (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, via the Federal Register, publication EPA-Carbon-Pollution-Standards-Partial-Repeal-2026-19071) and a state and city coalition has petitioned the D.C. Circuit for review (coag.gov publication COAG-Petition-for-Review-CPS-Partial-Repeal-2026-10-01). Secondary reporting puts the repeal's effect date in mid-November and the comment close on EPA's simultaneous supplemental proposal rescinding the section 111 predicate findings at 2 November 2026 (unconfirmed against the registered primaries). Read: mildly bullish state-programme allowances, since federal retreat raises the marginal value of regional caps.
California-Quebec (CCA). Mark USD 32.31 (2026-10-15, Most liquid futures settlement), -0.4%, carried from the prior session; primary print USD 32.48 (2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price).
What moved: Nothing new in the last 24 hours.
Desk view: Constructive. Rows are -27.0 Mt (2027) against holdings of 1,179,243,461 allowances (holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted, 2026-07-02), so the flow is short but the stock is large: a supply path, not yet scarcity.
Washington (WCA). Mark USD 39.00 (2026-10-15, Most liquid futures settlement), -0.6%, carried from the prior session; primary print USD 39.50 (2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement).
What moved: Our monitors flag three text changes to WAC 173-446 in the past nine days, consistent with the adopted Chapter 173-446 amendments taking effect this month (Ecology publication Ecology-WAC-173-446-Adopted-Text-2026-09-23); no new Ecology auction document has issued. APCR Auction #8 offered 172,348 allowances with a bid-to-allowance ratio of 0.00 (Ecology publication 26-14-073), against tier prices of $65.26 and $83.84 (Ecology publication 26-14-072).
Why: The reserve went uncovered, which tells you the physical bid is not above the Tier 1 shelf yet.
Desk view: Near term UP in physical and spot terms into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, and that is not the December futures contract the tape marks. Next year DOWN, because linkage pools Washington into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own. The desk holds no bank or stock figure for Washington; what it holds instead is the adopted Table 210-1 budget column, which is supply, not stock. Why the desk differs from the curve: near term, the desk expects Washington prices higher into compliance - in physical terms, into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, not in the December contract the tape marks - in line with the tightening standalone curve; for next year the desk expects them lower, because once linkage takes effect Washington is pooled into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own, which the standalone curve does not measure.
Alberta TIER. Primary print CAD 95.00 (2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement of 15 May 2026).
What moved: An AESO ISO Rules text change is flagged overnight; nothing touching the TIER headline schedule or the credit floor.
Desk view: Neutral. The administered schedule governs, and the live question remains Alberta enacting the credit price floor regulation before year end, which fixes the grandfathering cutoff for pre-enactment credits. The desk holds no bank figure for TIER; balance rows are two years behind the price.
California LCFS. CARB's weekly volume-weighted credit transfer average USD 68.30 for the week of 2026-10-05, posted 2026-10-13, range 54.40 to 100.00; prior week 82.18 (2026-09-28), -16.9%.
What moved: A sharp week-on-week drop with an unusually wide transfer range. No driver identified.
Why: On the renewable-diesel margin channel, the desk's legs are Brent 126.55 $/BBL, WTI 101.91 $/BBL and ULSD Gulf Coast 4.844 $/GAL (2026-10-14, US EIA). Firmer diesel widens the margin, lifts RD generation and is bearish credits; softer diesel compresses it and is bullish.
Desk view: Bearish near term on the print, but note the 2026Q1 balance showed credits 6.93 against deficits 9.77 million MT with a bank of 36.86 million MT, which is not a current figure.
BC LCFS. Primary print CAD 213.96 (2026-09-30, September 2026 avg transfer price, BC Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions (gov.bc.ca), publication BC-LCFS-Credit-Market-Data-October-2026). No new development; the September average is a large step up from August's 172.0. Read: bullish, compliance-driven. Canada CFR: no citable credit mark; rows remain an index pending ECCC's unpublished retirement data, and no stock is held. Oregon and Washington LCFS: nothing new beyond the OAR 340-253 text changes already carried.
What moved: Overnight detections on the DSIRE database and the CPUC's California RPS pages are logged and not yet dispositioned to a substantive change; PJM manuals, SPP governance and ERCOT operating guides also flagged.
Desk view: Neutral and unpriced. The desk holds traded prices for 14 of 33 tracked RPS jurisdictions, and no firmness call is taken on classes carrying no citable price.
SBTi (lead): Standing context, the Corporate Net-Zero Standard v2.0 was published 11 June 2026; validations against V2.0 open 1 February 2027 and it becomes mandatory 1 February 2028. No change overnight.
Removals: Isometric opened a draft Orphaned Well Plugging Protocol for North American regions for public consultation (Quantum Commodity Intelligence, 15 October). Read: marginally bearish methane-abatement credit pricing on the supply-expansion signal, neutral for durable CDR. Puro's General Rules v4.4 shows a large document change our monitors cannot word-diff (Puro.earth Oy, publication Puro-Standard-General-Rules-v4-4).
Article 6 / GCC: ICAO is reported calling for stronger CORSIA commitment (Travel Daily News, 16 October); no instrument change.
EU ETS (EUA). Mark EUR 85.84 (2026-10-15, Most liquid futures settlement), -1.5%, carried from the prior session; primary print EUR 85.50 (2026-10-16, Latest EEX auction clearing price).
What moved: A softer carried settle with no new EU instrument overnight.
Why: The Council's MSR negotiating mandate (Council of the European Union (General Secretariat), publication Council-MSR-Mandate-ST-13517-2026-INIT) would suspend invalidation above 400 million and set a 800 million threshold from 2031; it is a mandate for trilogue, not law.
Desk view: Constructive on structure. The surplus narrows from 113.7 Mt (2027) to -100.5 Mt (2030) against a TNAC of 1,023,494,202 (total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC), 2025-12-31), which sits in the MSR intake band.
UK ETS (UKA). Mark GBP 63.52 (2026-10-15, Most liquid futures settlement), -2.4%, carried from the prior session; primary print GBP 60.17 (2026-09-30, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table).
What moved: The largest single-session decline on the board. No driver identified.
Why: The Dec26 differential to EUA stands at -12.5% in common currency, narrowing to -9.6% by Dec28.
Desk view: Constructive on the spread, not the outright. No holdings series is published for the UK ETS; held beside that absence, and not a stock, is the 2026 free allocation table (UK ETS Authority (gov.uk), publication GOVUK-UKETS-Allocation-Table-2026-08).
NZ ETS (NZU). Mark NZD 52.00 (2026-10-02, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks)). This print is 14 days old against a 7 day cadence: it is a last print, not a current level, and no delta is quoted against it.
What moved: Nothing new. The September auction failed, with 10,400,000 units offered and 10,400,000 unsold, the third 2026 failure, rolled to the December auction.
Desk view: The no-clear case is now the desk's base case for December. The desk holds no bank figure for New Zealand; the rows assume zero auction supply below the floor.
Australia (ACCU). Primary print AUD 39.03 (2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR June quarter 2026, post-quarter price, 14 August 2026). This is 63 days old against a 4 day cadence and is not a current level.
What moved: An Offshore Petroleum and Greenhouse Gas Storage Act text change is flagged overnight, not yet dispositioned.
Desk view: Constructive structurally, no view on level. Rows are -22.8 Mt (2027) against registry holdings of 61,200,000 ACCUs (registry holdings excluding the cost containment measure, 2026-06-30).
Corrections & notes